Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I have these great rolls and only manage a win of $100 -$200 where other players are cashin in big filling their rack. I am a mostly a red better starting bankroll of about $200 - $300 per session. I usually start out with a pass line bet with one or two times odds and place the 6 and 8 for 12 each. I collect on one hit and increase in increments of 1 unit on every other hit. If I make the point I increase my odds by 50%. If things are going well I will also place the 5 and 9 for $10 and press 1 unit after every other hit. When I SO I usually leave more on the table than in the rack. Any ideas of what I am doing wrong?

Question: Are you pressing, say the 6/8 in pairs or just the one hitting? Secondly, what are the primary numbers you are hitting most often and lastly, how do you handle the hand when the 6 or 8 is the point? This will give us a bit more to work on.

More importantly
How long are the rolls?
I find that if I have a low teen roll that way, I don't get much ROI, esp if you are not hitting the 6/8 religiously. You are right... Nothing worse feeling when the randies are making more money on your roll than you.
More to be said for the big bet, then regress after a few hits back down to a $12 6&8.
It's all about hitting those numbers you are on and the amount of rolls.

One of the keys to increasing your winnings is to have your bets "off" when the ugly number rolls. Many do not believe in "indicators." I do, to a degree. Whether they work or not - you can't lose your money if your bets are off.

You might consider a Place to Come strategy. That will send your $$ to the numbers that are rolling. I'm also a fan of regressions, which can be accomplished when a Come bet travels and replaces a large enough Place bet.

In any case - don't over-bet your bankroll and don't worry so much about how much others are winning. Watch how some of those guys bet and it will scare you to death. Often the guy who wins $5K on one shooter's hand is already down $10K on his own, so it only looks impressive in the moment.

Selfer61,

Not sure what your bankroll normally is, but I have had the same issue in the past. Most success I have had lately is to become more aggressive with power pressing to a point, similar to what Wizard has suggested on this site. Especially on my own roles. If I set a point of 8, I will go $10 pass line with 5x odds, and $52 across on the rest of the numbers. My goal is to press each number, other than the point to get a pay-off of $50 for $1, ending up with basically a MP204 on the table.

First press by number when hit 4&10 press to $25 (buy it as well) and collect a $3 or $4 dollars on first hit depending on how house collects vig. First hit on 5&9, toss dealer a $1 and go to $25, second hit on 5&9 go to $35 and collect $10. First hit on 6&8 press to $24 and collect $2, second hit go to $42 and collect $10. I stop pressing at 4-$25, 5-$35, 6-$42, 8-$42, 9-$35, 10-$25. Once any number is pressed to that level, when it hits again, throw the dealer a $1 and collect $50.

In this example if the point is hit quick, you have paid for quite a bit of your investment on the table. I love this when the 4 and 10's are showing a lot. Two hits on the 4 or 10 and I have already collected my money for the investment of the across bets.

If I want to use this on random rollers, I will on a $5 table. Pass line $5 and $10 odds, one unit across and then full pressing each hit. Takes longer to get to full press level, but limits losses if they go out quick.

If the roll is getting lengthy and I have collected quite a bit already, I will start pressing higher than what I mentioned above. However, by stopping at the basic $204 across, it limits how much you have on the table. But if you believe in indicators at times you may want to shut off the bets or regress back to two units across and work back up again.

Thanks,

Dave

" I am a mostly a red better starting bankroll of about $200 - $300 per session"

Selfer, the harsh fact is, that if you are betting at this level then you are most unlikely to get more than the quoted 100 to 200 profit, even from the most decent of rolls.

The flip side is that you are also very unlikely to go bust if you maintain discipline.

Others making more than you will also lose eye watering amounts at times as already noted.

The only way to win more is to risk more and/or be more aggressive in your play. Maybe not more in terms of overall buy-in, but by risking a higher % on each hand. That can be great, but will come with higher volatility and you need to get used to that as you will lose more at times too.

Thanks everyone for your insight, ideas and betting strategies. I will be going to A/C next week and plan to revise my betting strategy accordingly. I will show the results in the my next trip report when I return.

To answer your questions Shootitall, I have been pressing only the number that hits and not both the 6 & 8 when one hits. It seems that my primary numbers keep changing. It could because I am constantly changing sets. There are some of my rolls where I can not hit a 6/8 with a 3V set so I change to 5/4.4/5 and it seems to work. I frequently use the x6's on the CO and the 4/10 point shows a lot. When 6 or 8 is the point I will put odds and place the other until I see that I am making point #'s. After a few hits I will then place 5 and 9. I rarely place any of the proposition bets but I recently had a hand and threw 5 hardways in a row. Even the dealers were amazed.

Good. Now, we can work a bit.
First, after the first press, you might try up one unit on what hits. "After a few hits". I suspect this
is where the profit is going. Might try earlier if the 5/9 is hitting. I, too, use to not increase bets until I had cleared the outlay. That also cost me more money than the potential of a small loss. Next, yes, the hardways are a semi bad bet however they are also my weakness at the table, I love the HWs. So, here, if you know which you are throwing, just place it for a buck and parlay it as Heavy does. Seldom hits, but a lot of action for a small amount. To me, your game is conservative. There is nothing wrong with that. You will never win the mortgage on the casino but greed can wreck you. Keep in mind you cannot collect unless you bet.
Now on the "constantly changing sets". For repeatable numbers, this is a killer. Each set has a bias of results. This is where home practice comes in. The 5/4-45 set and maybe Heavy will address this. It is 1/4 turn off of 4/4 5/2 so this probably indicates a toss flaw. That's enough from me, hopefully I did not confuse you.

selfer61 wrote: It seems that my primary numbers keep changing. It could because I am constantly changing sets.

You never ever change sets mid hand! IE when you are shooting !

Reason cause and effect

cause switching from X6 to 3V effect 3v gives you inside #'s..

cause switching from P6 to 2V effect gives you out side #'s

It could because I am constantly changing sets. There are some of my rolls where I can not hit a 6/8 with a 3V set so I change to 5/4.4/5 and it seems to work. I frequently use the x6's on the CO and the 4/10 point shows a lot. When 6 or 8 is the point I will put odds and place the other until I see that I am making point #'s. After a few hits I will then place 5 and 9. I rarely place any of the proposition bets but I recently had a hand and threw 5 hardways in a row.

Great comments from SIA and AD, and spot on. I typically use two sets during a hand. The first is a come out set designed to profit on horn numbers and "push" on sevens. Once I get a point set I choose a set based on that point - typically the V-2 or V-3. I stick with that set until the hand is over UNLESS I am missing one number for the ATS or FIRE bets - in which case I MAY change my set to one more favorable to the lost number. Nothing at all wrong with Place betting the sister number once the point is established. They frequently show up and can be profitable. It's sounding like you're only placing the six and eight most of the time. While they carry the lowest house edge - a 2 - 1 payoff on the four or ten beats the heck out of 7 - 6 on the six and eight. The thing I would tell you is to let the dice decide which numbers to bet once you're up and running. You could, for example, bet the pass line with odds, place the six and eight OR the inside numbers OR the outside numbers OR across, then start making table minimum Come bets, replacing your place bets with Come bets with odds. Once you get 3 or 4 numbers established take down the remaining Place bets, collect a time or two, then start with continuous Come bets. On a decent hand you'll make plenty of money that way. The other thing I'll tell you goes back to my early days in the casino - a lesson well learned. Whenever you see the same decision three times in a row - you either follow the trend or you don't bet. If I saw three hardways in a row I'd have made money on the third one because I'd have bet them after the first two. If three go by and you don't bet them - shame on you. The parlay opportunities just passed you buy. Yeah, it's a prop bet and carries a high vig. But big winners make bold decisions - and they make them at the right time.

Something else to consider... your discipline is netting you a 33% or 66% profit on your buy-in. That's not so shabby.The randies prolly aren't doing as well. Sure, it ain't 'glory' considering "what could have been", but a steady 33% ain't so bad.

What you might do is just chose one number, any number... it seems you haven't figured out if you have a signature number yet, so any box number will do. Maybe choose an inside number closer to the middle just because 'average statistics' would say you'll roll them more. Let your initial bet ride for 2 or 3x on a full parlay and then take a profit. For example, let's say 5 is the 'chosen' number with an initial bet of $10. 1st hit, parlay to $24; second hit, reduce the bet to $10 and skim the $49 profit. If you wanna stick your neck out, let it ride on the second hit--that would pay $35; throw the dealer a dollar and make the 5 a $60 bet. When it hits again, regress to $10 and skim the rest. If it loses, all you've lost on the 5 is $10. All other box numbers treated as universally the same--take as 'winnings' each number's first payoff; now you're even for that number. Then, no matter the apparent heavily-repeated occurrence of a non-5 'signature' number--bet all the other numbers except the 5, "up one unit" on every hit.
For me, this system leaves a "minimum" on the table that's acceptable to me when the Red comes.

Another bet I'll make is I'll skim off the $1 units from the 6/8 payoffs and bet them on the H6/H8... if I've got $24 on the 6, and it pays $28, I'll 'up one unit' to $30. The winnings they'll give me is $22. I'll throw $2 on the H6. 4-2 rolls again, I lose $2 on the H6 and get paid $35 for the place bet; press to $36, get paid $29. $4 H6. Etc. If the hardway hits: round the H6 up to the nearest $5 or $10 and bet a continuation. $4 H6 pays $36; make the H6 $10, keep $30. H6 hits again, make the H6 $25 and continue. Back at the ranch, "up one unit" on the place 6 all the time.

What you might do is just chose one number, any number... it seems you haven't figured out if you have a signature number yet, so any box number will do. Maybe choose an inside number closer to the middle just because 'average statistics' would say you'll roll them more. Let your initial bet ride for 2 or 3x on a full parlay and then take a profit. For example, let's say 5 is the 'chosen' number with an initial bet of $10. 1st hit, parlay to $24; second hit, reduce the bet to $10 and skim the $49 profit. If you wanna stick your neck out, let it ride on the second hit--that would pay $35; throw the dealer a dollar and make the 5 a $60 bet. When it hits again, regress to $10 and skim the rest. If it loses, all you've lost on the 5 is $10. All other box numbers treated as universally the same--take as 'winnings' each number's first payoff; now you're even for that number. Then, no matter the apparent heavily-repeated occurrence of a non-5 'signature' number--bet all the other numbers except the 5, "up one unit" on every hit.

The single box number betting strategy is one of the things we'll be talking about in the advanced portion of our seminar in Biloxi next weekend. However, the play I'll be discussing revolves around choosing the dominant number for the last 8 - 10 shooters and betting THAT number only. I like to power press the first hit, then rake profit from there.

I'd be a happy man with a 200.00 win each session!!

SHOOTITALL wrote:Good. Now, we can work a bit.
First, after the first press, you might try up one unit on what hits. "After a few hits". I suspect this
is where the profit is going. Might try earlier if the 5/9 is hitting. I, too, use to not increase bets until I had cleared the outlay. That also cost me more money than the potential of a small loss. Next, yes, the hardways are a semi bad bet however they are also my weakness at the table, I love the HWs. So, here, if you know which you are throwing, just place it for a buck and parlay it as Heavy does. Seldom hits, but a lot of action for a small amount. To me, your game is conservative. There is nothing wrong with that. You will never win the mortgage on the casino but greed can wreck you. Keep in mind you cannot collect unless you bet.
Now on the "constantly changing sets". For repeatable numbers, this is a killer. Each set has a bias of results. This is where home practice comes in. The 5/4-45 set and maybe Heavy will address this. It is 1/4 turn off of 4/4 5/2 so this probably indicates a toss flaw. That's enough from me, hopefully I did not confuse you.

I Like the idea of pressing the # that hits. on the 4th toss I place a DC bet, after 5 toss I turn my bets off

and take down the ones that did not hit.

and turn them back on after the 7th toss all your bets are payed for with a $mall profit if the 7en shows plus the pay off for your DC

Heavy wrote:The single box number betting strategy is one of the things we'll be talking about in the advanced portion of our seminar in Biloxi next weekend.

Damn, I wish I was there for that; I'm not gonna be at Sunday's class.

I went through this same concern in the past year. Part of it is simple... high risk = high reward. The guys you see winning $1000s on the great hands are losing hundreds on the poor - average hands. Their "strategy" is to just keep at it and hope the big hand comes along that makes up for all the bad hands. And there are many ways to create "high risk". You can bet big right from the start or you can bet smaller but press everything until you're at a level that earns $100 per hit. I've seen both. Early pressers do great on the rare monster rolls or on moderate hands that constantly repeat the same number(s) a lot. They often get killed on an average choppy table. I've seen guys blow through $2000 on three shooters and then do it again. And again. All the while I'm treading water or only losing about $20 per shooter. When the big roll comes I win $200 less my $100 loss. They win $5000 less their $6000 loss. Looks good if you see them color up for $5k, but in truth they just lost $1k.

The way I like to play models what a lot of smart players on this forum talk about. Go up fairly big at first then regress after two hits. Use an amount that is 10% of your buyin. So if you buy in for $500 you can afford $44 inside for two hits then regress to $6 each on 6&8. The strategy is that two hits will put a little profit in the rack plus bets on the table. The few remaining bets give you a chance to grow on the long hands. Short hands also give you a slight profit. Once you achieve regression press with about 1/3 of your winnings. If you do that methodically you'll discover that when the devil shows up on those great hands you'll have $100 in profit for every $50 you leave on the table. If you press too soon you'll too often leave most of the profit on the table. If you press too late you won't make much on the long hands. It takes three hits for a pressed bet to earn more than a non pressed bet when you press this way. So you WILL earn more by NOT pressing if hands are not giving you 3+ hits on pressed bets. But playing that way means you miss the BIG score on the monster hands. That's what I LIVE for, so I almost always press 1/3 of the win.

The big keys are the initial steep regression ratio, respecting the regression point and the subsequent pressing schedule for bets that pay after regression. Do those three things right and you'll usually survive an average choppy table and quite often come away with a win. Well, actually, the biggest key is getting a roll with a lot of repeating numbers that you have bets on. Do THAT consistently and a plethora of betting strategies will win.

Hi Selfer61--Good post. I like your discipline at the table. I will toss out a few addendum thoughts , although responses will be somewhat limited without knowing your overall gaming objectives: Overall bankroll avail, how often you play, how many rolls are average for your typical hand, what are your two best #s, Your loss tolerance...etc.
1st) Youre doing well if ur consistently leaving your session with a $100-200 win on a $200-300 buyin.
2nd) Youre doing a good job of keeping a reasonable # of bets(<=2 is usually optimum) and wager amount is appropriate relative to your buyin .
3rd) There are several good responses above and I especially like the first paragraph in Freaks reply as it is worthy of a followup reading.
4th) If you know your top two numbers from practice rolls or casino tracking then I would look at them and compare with what has been showing at the table over the past 30-60minutes and see if you can choose two inside numbers(occurring more often as a f(x) of expectation) to attack with the 3v set. Also , you may be surprised as the 5 or 9 will sometimes be the optimum choice to pair with the 6 or 8.
5th) My #1 suggestion is to "GET POSITIVE ASAP"
6TH) "GET POSITIVE ASAP"
7TH) The quickest/easiest method to get positive asap is to Press...(That is---An inverted press) i.e., REGRESSION. I love to regress on my first two hits regardless of which numbers im pursuing and regardless of my buyin, wager amounts, or win objectives.
*The first reason I like the inverted press(regression) as my initial move vs the press is that it requires one less hit to grab profit vs pressing from the start; The secondary reason is that as you know when we are playing the Dos is that the casino takes our base bet when we lose; and the tertiary reason, is that a regression on the first two hits puts your largest wager amount on the table at the beginning of the roll (roll #1,2,3... and our smallest wager is on the table (rolls 4,5,6,7..etc) as we approach the latter part of a "typical" roll duration . Then if we do see our roll get to the 9-15 range or beyond we have locked up our profit and everything is bonus money. We are then free to press on out on the longer rolls. In other words--we want to design our personal strategy on what we will typically see happen during most rolls. "Rinse and Repeat"--as the above $35-50 hand profit is very doable and will occur on most average hands.

8th) For a regression you might consider placing your two best numbers for 3/3 or 3/4 units to give yourself a little regression room(Although on a $200-300 buyin 3/4 units may be stretching a little).
For example if you placed 6/8 for $18/18 or lets say the 5/6 for $15/18 you could regress the one that didNOT hit and then on the second hit regress the other # so you are keeping the possible hot # at highest level the longest and at or after the 2nd regression you should be positive, and I would suggest you consider continuing with this regression(regress the one that didn't hit) and then collect one hit once you have both at one unit($6 or $5) and then press the most hit # on every other hit OR simply regress both wagers to one unit after the 2nd hit. With this approach I think you will see that after your 3rd or 4th hit you will be approaching roll 6-10 and when the hand ends you have minimal amount on the table and have a very nice profit of of $35-50 on a hand that finished at 6-10 rolls, and even on the disappointing hands that finish at 4-6 range , you will still have a $20-30 net profit when others are muttering about leaving $60-70 on the table and having $10 to show in the rack.

*Thanks for sharing one of your strategies and keep up the good work at the tables.

All the best to you,
Tgold

Any schmuck should be able to win money on great rolls. The key to winning at craps is to win a little or lose less when the rolls aren't great, which is the majority of the time. If you are walking away with a small win or a small loss on those days when $100.00 bills are falling on the craps table like fall leaves and everyone's rack is empty, you will win more over the long term than you will trying to turbocharge wins on the great rolls.

selfer61 wrote:I have these great rolls and only manage a win of $100 -$200 where other players are cashin in big filling their rack. I am a mostly a red better starting bankroll of about $200 - $300 per session. I usually start out with a pass line bet with one or two times odds and place the 6 and 8 for 12 each. I collect on one hit and increase in increments of 1 unit on every other hit. If I make the point I increase my odds by 50%. If things are going well I will also place the 5 and 9 for $10 and press 1 unit after every other hit. When I SO I usually leave more on the table than in the rack. Any ideas of what I am doing wrong?

Your betting beyond your bankroll. Forget the 5&9 bet. Place the 6&8 for $6 each, don't press any hit. Don't increase your odds.

Fred

Hi Selfer61,
Some GREAT ideas in the posts above...

Not for nothing, but winning "only" $100-$200 with just a Session BR of $200-$300 is pretty dang good!
That's one helluva percentage win!


Good Luck,
BB