Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

How much do you press? When do you start pressing?
Rapping Captain claimed that most players press so aggressively that they make it nearly impossible to make money in the long run.

I remember his approach to pressing in Exponential Odds, and how effective I found it to be, so I tried his 20% rule on my last book of rolls. I was betting $44 inside, WOTCO, and my betting strategy was to press the first hit, converting a $14 payout on 6 or 8 to $15 odds, or $16 odds on the 5 and 9, with a $10 PL. After that, no pressing until I was net positive for the hand.

Once I had racked more than I was in for, I would press up to 20% of the previous payoff. So, If I had a $14 payoff, that counted as $2.80 of pressing credit-Not enough to press yet. Once I got the next hit, that brought me to $5.60 worth of pressing and I would round up to $6 if I needed to. Initially, presses are one unit, every other hit. On long hands, I got to the point where I could press $12, but its verrrrry slow going when starting with only $44 action. A pass line winner speeds up the process, but it is still glacially slow.

So, with a final SRR of 5.63, how much do you think I lost???

I actually won $277.

To be fair, I hit an 22 inside numbers more than expected, but I also threw 8 extra sevens, and I was always working on the come out, so non of those sevens were free. This win was all about the power of the long hand. Would I have won more if I had pressed more agressively? IDK. I do know that I would have lost $270 by flat betting, wotco.

My currant study is $162 across WOTCO, staying with 20% pressing. The extra starting amount will eliminate the every other hit rule because a $35 payout, adds up to $7 in pressing equity. It will be interesting to see if there is any difference in how profitable this is. I would also like to see what pressing from the getgo would be like, but I'll have to wait for the next book to try that.

Any opinions?

If my math is right you need to get 3 or 4 hits before you get your bets paid for and can press. So you're risking about $66 and racking any wins lowering your risk with each hit. I'd be interested to see how this fares it you always press the first 3 hits. Spread the winnings across inside bets and PL odds. That 4th hit will be paying you in the $35 -$56 range. After that, regress back to 10-18-18-10 and then start the 20% press schedule.

Hi Freak-
I like that the regression puts more profit in the rack, which is great for the short to medium length hands. That covers about 95% of the hands out there.
For my purposes, I'm looking to maximize the earnings power on the long hands, so I won't be regressing, just slow pressing.

OK, I hear you. You cover your action by leaving it same bet for 3-4 hits. No pressing or regressing. Here's another way to look at it...

Right now you need 3-4 hits to have your placed bets covered and up at the 10-18-18-10 level that you want to begin the press from. If you press the first three hits then at the same point that you would be "even" with $56 working action, you could be "even" with $66 - $88 of working action. You'd take that $66 of needed profit to be even as a regression at the 3rd or 4th hit rather than $14 - $21 at the time of each hit. You definitely lose more on the hands that don't get that 3-4th hit, but you put yourself in a much better position to REALLY profit from even a moderately long hand. Much easier to press with 20% of $20 than 20% of $10.

Hi Americraps

Wish i had an answer to offer but I am playing around with various pressing strategies myself. Then again I am still working on getting my toss into a good place

I am sure we will see some interesting approaches posted

Americraps
I played a lot with the Rapping Captain over the last five years before we lost him. One of the reasons exponential betting worked so well for the Captain was his ability to toss greater than average long repeating numbers hands. Because of his ability and those who he played with to have longer than normal rolls, he could dig out of a hole quickly. If my toss is on, I press 30 percent on each repeating number and do not regress bets.

I played a lot with the rapping captian, I meet him in o9 played with him till he passed, I'm sure I played with him on his last trip to a casino it was HS in tunica.As I recall
he told me that he pressed 30%. I never seen him regress or turn a bet off. He was probably the most consistent winner that I have ever known, he would not play with chicken feeders he always posted on his own web site where he would be playing to entice good shooters to jion him. He would always request a $25. table never put odds on the first # always $25 in come after point established, If # was 4,5, 9,or 10 he put $200. odds,if # was 6, or 8 he put $$250. then a # repeted he pressed about 30%. Once he had 4 # up he always work on come out. Isure miss the Capt. His wife JUDY is a verry good shooter I have seen her hold the dice for 90 minutes. they were a great team.

Hambone (AKA) buckwheat.

I don't think I ever saw RC have better rolls than Judy!

Noah

There are so many ways to press and they all work when the dice behave. The way to have the biggest wins is to press early and hard, but it's also the way to lose your buy in the most often.

I too play for long rolls, it's just the way I enjoy playing. IMO, the key when playing this way is to have a fairly wide spread and to maximize table time during any one session. If you can stay in the game, it's unusual to not see at least a few good rolls over a couple hours time frame.

At minimum, I will go inside and usually I will go across, leaving 1 number bare, so either $44 or $54 (wide spread). My buy-in at this level is $500-$600. I rack the first 5 hits. This reduces my exposure and maximizes table time. After the 5th hit I will press $22 inside ($6 at risk here). Then take one hit (now at a profit). Then I will press sister numbers until I'm at $88 inside, any $28 payout goes in my rail for at least 3-4 hits. Then I press depending on my feelings. If numbers seem to be repeating and I'm up I'll press the repeaters aggressively, from 20/24 to 35/42, 70/84, 150, 300, but I will almost always take one hit in between presses. Honestly, it's pretty rare to get to the 70/84 level. If numbers don't seem to be repeating, I may stick with a sister number press strategy. At some point, I add a regression or stop pressing for a bit, this depends on where my buy in is at. I don't mind leaving a lot of money on the table if I'm up but a regression can get you right in a hurry if you are down. Once I regress, I will power press for 3 or 4 rolls without taking any profits then go back to a more conservative press strategy. I will not regress again.

With the above, you can spend a lot of time treading water or it becomes a slow drain so it takes patience, but my goal is to preserve my buy in so I can be on the table for the longer rolls. If I'm patient, they usually come. Not always enough to have a session win but it's rare that I go through my buy in and I've notched some big wins doing this.

JB85 I am with you on the get it early, get off and then ride the waves. As my wife reminds me "the less you bet the more you lose when you win". Setting for the 7 and lay betting has been really helpful to get money in the rack from the get go. That being said my numbers seem to indicate that I am typically (not aways) good for 8-10+rolls and more often than not into the teens and sometimes higher numbers. Learning to make money on the short rolls has been my goal. So I have started to play at least $110 inside to start. I collect each hit until I get my $110 back in the rack then start pressing a unit and collecting. I tend to roll across the board so I try to get a $25 5 and 10 as well as soon as I get up a couple of hits. My goal is keep my money in the rack and to make money along the way using the casinos money. If I leave a lot of the casinos money on the table when I go out I know I have used it well along the way and a win is a win. If I am lucky enough to get into longer rolls I prefer to stay at $90 6 and 8 and $50 on the rest until I have had five good hits. At that point I full press and collect on just one number that has been hitting the most and this satisfies my gambling jones. I have also started to turn my bets off on the first roll after the point is established as I hate to PSO. This has been a good thing for the bankroll when I have the pressed bets sitting on the table after a couple of points.

Interesting to read all your replies, thank you!

Hambone- I think you are describing RC's Level 10 exponential odds. I have not wargamed that one yet, but from what I can tell by reading through RCs blog on MPs site, it was working well for him, although he said he hadn't tested it completely.

Reference to RC brings back old memories.

One strong point to RC's play was he did not play random rollers;once he saw a shooter had found his sweet spot he was not afraid to work his bets on the comeout.

Judy is a great shooter in her own rights and still plays with us but one of the most magnificient rolls I have seen in my lifetime was a roll by RC. It was just two of us and I was the blocker;after the first 20 rolls RC was only throwing hardways on even numbers. I started with a $5 on all the hardways and pressed every hardway once a hardway hit as follows 5,10,15,25,35,50,75,100,125,150,175. I remember collecting on the hard 8 at $150.

RC liked the 20% press and once he got deep into the roll[12-18 repeaters] he went into level 7 exponential betting.

Another strong point of RC's play is he didn't alter it on hunches or because of various superstitions. Meaning once he was at a certain point he was working on the comeout no matter what, he was pressing rather than regressing, etc. Too many players are all over the place, they turn the bets off if any of a list of 100 things happens and come down or regress to almost nothing. Granted, RC had a very large bankroll so he was never playing with scared money... but he also set limits on what eh was willing to lose but never a cap on what he was willing to win.

I still remember the day I asked how he was doing and the tally was he was down $20,000 so far for the trip... he didn't allow it to change his play, to alter his toss, etc. In fact the only reason I knew he was down $20,000 is because I asked, the same as the night he won over $10,000 in a few minutes at one casino, I knew because I tossed the hand he did it on not because he acted differently.

RC believed in having a proper bankroll, he believed in having a plan that you have proven and that you follow regardless of what the last roll just did. So while some people were busy turning bets on and off... RC took the payout or the loss the same either way and often as not was averaging 10 - 50x what most of the other players did because he was consistent. He wasn't just consistent in his toss, he was consistent in his betting, in those he would back... and to me, more importantly he was always consistent in his friendship.

RC is one of only 2 craps players I have ever altered my game to fit what they needed rather than what I wanted... but then he was my friend and he inspired that type of loyalty, but most people confuse being at the same table as being a friend... he always understood the difference and made time to talk to his friends and to listen as well.

One clarrification;as much as I played with RC my betting style was different than his.

I dont believe in come bets and pressing style is an individual preference based on ones risk level.However when the time comes I am not afraid to take the juice out of the roll and can get very aggressive just as RC was.

Kumar,
Can you shed any light on what level 7 exponential betting is?

If I recalled correctly, Sid and/or Judy sometimes played certain VP games.

Noah

level 7 betting-once deep into the roll RC would press the number hit by 20-30 % and the sister number by 10%

Americraps
I have also been using the $44 I with pressing the 1st hit strategy but no wotco. (I use to play $66 I but I like this strategy better with less money at risk) If the point is inside # then I press the 3 placed #s. If the point is 4 or 10 then I press the # hit and the other two closest inside numbers. Collect 3 hits to recover money and $21 up. Then start pressing only #s hit. Press 5/9 to $25 and 6/8 to $30. Collect once on the number hit then press that # to $35 (5/9) or $42 (6/8) on the next hit. I am just trying to get the numbers to $50 for $1 collection within a realistic time and collecting money on the way. I collect at that level for 3 hits before fairly aggressive pressing up numbers hit because you are in a good roll at this point.

I go to Shreveport weekly and have been using this strategy the last 2 trips with fairly good results. I have a table at home since moving last summer. I have had good results with my practice sessions over the past several weeks using this approach. If I am on I hit a lot of inside #s with my 3v and even with a x6. What I am still working on is how to get the 4 & 10 in action as soon as possible. I have tried playing the field to feed the 4/10 or placing the 4 or 10 if that number is hit. Still a work in progress as always.

Thanks Kumar-

AlBTossin- You wrote- "If the point is inside number, then I press the 3 placed numbers." To clarify- do you mean that you are pressing 4 numbers upon your first hit? So essentially that would be going from $44 in to $66 in, right?

I like that as a way of mitigating your come out seven losses. I would describe your pressing style of fast in the early stages, then very slow in the mid stages, then faster at the end. I like it.

What I am doing for the 4 and 10 right now is staying off them until the hand is profitable, then betting them for $15 individually after they hit once. Not sure if I like this or not, I need more info.

Americraps, I do not press the point initially. For example, pt is 6, I press the 5,8 &9 to 15,18 & 15 each off the initial inside hit (+14/-2 for press) and do not press the point (6). You only hit your point once while hopefully hitting the placed numbers many times. I press the point later with winnings if I get deeper in the roll.