Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I'm sure this isn't new to anyone here and it's probably been talked about as a Don't strategy at some point or another and having seen it brought up elsewhere I thought I'd see what this crowd thinks.

For the sake of argument assume you are comfortable being a Doey Don't player. Personally I prefer a straight DP, but nonetheless assume we are playing a Doey Don't. Once a point is established you lay enough odds to cover a $20 win and you bet $20 in the DC box. The goal is to get an even money bet up against a number, pick up your lay odds and root for the seven out.

I understand that if you could always get an even money wager against a number you would be in great position, I'm just no sure there journey to get there is worth it in this case. I'm sure many of you have seen this strategy. What are your thoughts?

I feel that once a point is established, say 5 for example you are now risking $30 on the lay odds and $20 in the DC box so 6 combinations of the seven mean you push, 2 combinations of eleven mean you lose $20 (which you reload I assume) and 4 combinations of the five that lose you $30 and travel your $20. I'm now rooting against 12 combinations on that second toss only to get my $20 DC traveled to a number that I am now fading 5 combination (assume 6/8) to ultimately win that bet.

In the above example I guess I would rather risk the additional $10 (via my lay odds) rather than fade the 12 combinations then 5 combinations when I can simply fade the 5 combination on the second roll where I am hoping my DC travels.

Seems like this strategy takes a LONG road to get to that even money lay wager.

Would it not be simpler to just accept the 7/11 risk factor and place a naked DP or DC?

This is similar to a strat I use to use while dice were traveling the circuit. I would bet the DC, then doey-dont the come/DP. IF it traveled to a 6 or 8, I would take the odds but 4/10/5/9, lay the odds, single only. Did it work? Sometimes, like a charm. Sometimes not. I would only put out (?) one doey-dont and await a decision.

I'm with London Shooter on this one.

London Shooter wrote:Would it not be simpler to just accept the 7/11 risk factor and place a naked DP or DC?

Yes, but I assume they are recommending this path as a way to avoid risk against the seven while getting your DP/DC bet moved against a number.

But in removing 7 risk you are adding risk that the number your DP with odds on hits.

The way I see it is you are paying vig on your doey/don't and then vig on your DC. You are trying to hedge, but really all that hedging does is give the casino more little bites at your money - at least that's how I feel the figures will work out long term.

Hedging will reduce your day to day volatility but it also increases the houses take as a doey/don't is a guaranteed 1.39% loser.

I also assume doey/don't bets have around 25% or less comp rating value compared to the same amount of money on the pass or DP only. Has anyone ever asked a pit critter that question?

The D/D is a useful strategy if the table charts a mediocre to moderate Don't. If it charts a strong Don't then I play just the DP.