Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hey all I'm a new user and player. I found the forums from my assorted googling searches. I live in the Dallas, TX area and Shreveport is going to be my main gaming location.

I'm just reading through the forums and main pages to learn strategy and dice control.

I do have a question, do people actually turn profits from playing???

Some do, if they are able to control the dice and bet only on numbers they have a real advantage on.

Most do not.

Noah

acpa wrote:Some do, if they are able to control the dice and bet only on numbers they have a real advantage on.

Most do not.

Noah

So, basically most people just play for fun and try to minimize losses?? How about the people on the forums here? Pretty good at turning a profit with dice contro?

acpa wrote:Some do, if they are able to control the dice and bet only on numbers they have a real advantage on.

Most do not.

Noah

Let me disagree here with my old pal acpa. I am thinking when you follow the practice program, when you practice your betting on both sides of the table and you have a low vig betting program that fits your risk tolerance and personality, you can turn a profit most days although it may not be as much as you wanted (it never is) but a profit none the less. Case in point: Our old pal DF has not thrown the dice in ~12 years or so yet has steadily eked out about 18% or so per year. He has a program he is comfortable with, uses it religiously only changing the amount bet. Again, the wagering program and using your noodle is critical.
There are tons of info on both on this site with post from very knowledgeable members then, join up on MP's most excellent site also for even more info. As we have said for years on the site: Read until you puke. It is all here and it can be done but it does take effort and work. It certainly is not easy to develop an exercise program and follow it rain or shine. But, many have done it.
Forgot: Controlling dice is impossible, INFLUENCING dice is what we do. I had a neighbor drop in while I was practicing in my garage and he asked the very same thing, Could I control the dice? I said, "No but I can influence the results. What would you like me to throw? He said a hard six. It took me three tosses but there it was. He turned a bit pink and left.

Who is DF and MP???

Sorry, my bad, your being fairly new, you are not familiar with the short cuts some of us use.
MP is Mad Professor. He writes a column, "Mad Professor's not so Random Thought of the Day"
and is very active on, The Stock Market, the other Crapshoot.
Now, DF is Dylan Freak. He is an Arkansas product, very smart and terrific word smith when he post.
Both can be found in the Members section and the columns can be found in the board index.
MP's site is: http://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/
To join, he will let you know how.
I short cut my handle to SIA, short for shootitall.

SIA,

Agree with your choice of words, influencing is better than controlling that I used.

While I agree that DF is a long term winner, he is so far on the winning side of the bell curse of results for betting on randies that a still believe the statement that only rolling with influence and betting on the results of your influence, which the vast majority of people have/do is required to be a winner.

I recognize there are some people who believe proper betting can make you a winner, even on randies, but I'm not one of those people (Consider that DF is on the extreme of the curve).

The math favors the casinos.

Noah

My advice is to obtain several small winning sessions, instead of trying to score big wins on a single session. Set a relatively modest session win limit, then quit each session while you're ahead and close to, or over, your win limit. When you finish each session, let some time (an hour or more) pass before returning to that particular table, or go play at a different table or casino. If you have a good betting strategy, you will cycle up and down. Try to quit each session when you are on the "up" side - so you don't have to quit on the down side when you've reached your loss limit.

Thanks all for the advice. I'll be making a trip to Shreveport tomorrow so I'll see how it goes!

Antix: Oh, my had I know about SB earlier, you could have dropped by me house for a chat and toss tweak but I have plans for tomorrow so not in the cards. I would suggest if possibe, to sign up for the E TX get together at the end of the month. Let us know.

SIA, I saw your post about the meetup, but I will have my boys that weekend so it would be a no go :/

(I'm recently divorced hence I now have some time for new hobbies on the days I don't have my kids lol)

Okay, I'll toss out some numbers that often get tossed back in my face. Those numbers being (IMHO) the failure rate at DI (dice influencing). I rely highly on the old 80/20 rule here, because I think it applies. Of the thousand or so players I've trained through the years - probably 80% had enough control over the dice to turn a profit - assuming they stuck with the low vig bets and numbers that they had a proven edge on. Of that 80%, I'm guessing 20% achieved some level of short term success. So out of 1000 players we're talking 160 short run winners. But over the long run most players I've seen fall back into old betting habits and get out of the habit of practicing their tosses, recording and analyzing the results, and fine tuning their play. So of those 160 winners, I'm thinking 80% ultimately fail. That leaves a lowly 32 players out of 1000 who I think take this stuff seriously enough to practice, practice, practice - and have the discipline and money management skills to win. Which essentially means being willing to quit while you're ahead. That's a 3.2% success rate - which is actually LOWER than my critics use when taking shots at me over teaching dice influence techniques. That's 3.2% who are successful despite the game being stacked against them. Let me add that the casino did not need to cheat the 96.8% of those players who ultimately failed. They weren't beaten by some sort of goofy underlay, back wall rubber made out of flubber, or crooked dice. They ultimately beat themselves because they were unwilling to do that it takes to win.

So do you have what it takes to be one of the 3.2% who succeed? Nobody knows the answer to that. Ultimately, time will tell.

Man it really is stacked against people! Well, as long as I'm having fun and not completely losing my shirt I'd be satisfied honestly. Just starting out I still need to work on a bankroll etc

It has to be stacked against people otherwise the casinos would not exist.

Now imagine how small Heavy's 3.2% figure is amongst all craps players. So miniscule it barely registers a blip.

All of this is why I refer to myself as a "serious recreational craps player" and not a "professional craps player." Could I play professionally if I wanted? Probably. Back when I retired from the day job - about 10 years ago - SIA and I played frequently in a test to see if we could pull it off. Wins well exceeded losses. When I went back to work (a day job in Shreveport/Bossier) I typically played 3 -4 sessions a week, winning around $160 a session with no problem. That while playing with a limited bankroll and making relatively small bets. But frankly, I don't enjoy the casino lifestyle that much. I go there because I enjoy the game and the money I win. Sort of like the Texas bank robber who said he robbed banks because that's where the money was. Keep it all in perspective, accept small wins and be willing to walk without turning a small loss into a large loss and you'll do fine.

Last fall, I celebrated my 10th anniversary in dice influencing that started with 22 of us in Crapsfest 2004 after a lesson from Beau the month before; and continuing to today and beyond.

I keep very precise track of my bankroll wins & losses, and can clearly cite that every year since 2004 has been a winning year in craps. Statistically that sounds great, 10 out of 10, but delving in a bit closer - I note 2 years were less than a net +$200; which is only a few PSOs away from a negative year. My high year has been $4850, so you just never know. All my casual casino friends always (somewhat cliche-ly) say that they play for the entertainment (or recreation) and when their $200 is gone they stop. I counter by saying its much more entertaining when you're winning; so go work on your attitude - maybe you'll win more. From that prospective I'd say the majority of us are "serious recreational craps players" as Heavy says. Just trying to define it a bit. Not sure what a pro would be, but if someone knows feel free to fill in the gap.

So, overall I'm ahead and still learning & growing, plus I've worked my way up from a $3 player to a $25 player. Plus a nice comp-ed steak still tastes just as sweet, LOL

D.N8r

Heavy wrote:All of this is why I refer to myself as a "serious recreational craps player" and not a "professional craps player." Could I play professionally if I wanted? Probably. Back when I retired from the day job - about 10 years ago - SIA and I played frequently in a test to see if we could pull it off. Wins well exceeded losses. When I went back to work (a day job in Shreveport/Bossier) I typically played 3 -4 sessions a week, winning around $160 a session with no problem. That while playing with a limited bankroll and making relatively small bets. But frankly, I don't enjoy the casino lifestyle that much. I go there because I enjoy the game and the money I win. Sort of like the Texas bank robber who said he robbed banks because that's where the money was. Keep it all in perspective, accept small wins and be willing to walk without turning a small loss into a large loss and you'll do fine.

That's how I played with blackjack, but I found that my main problem was not walking away when I got down to 50% of my bankroll. I had to keep pushing it until I could get back up to my starting point.

Now I know to walk away, rather than keep pushing it. Conversely, I had no problem with walking away once I hit my target profit (usually double the bankroll that I had brought with me).

DarthNater wrote:Last fall, I celebrated my 10th anniversary in dice influencing that started with 22 of us in Crapsfest 2004 after a lesson from Beau the month before; and continuing to today and beyond.

I keep very precise track of my bankroll wins & losses, and can clearly cite that every year since 2004 has been a winning year in craps. Statistically that sounds great, 10 out of 10, but delving in a bit closer - I note 2 years were less than a net +$200; which is only a few PSOs away from a negative year. My high year has been $4850, so you just never know. All my casual casino friends always (somewhat cliche-ly) say that they play for the entertainment (or recreation) and when their $200 is gone they stop. I counter by saying its much more entertaining when you're winning; so go work on your attitude - maybe you'll win more. From that prospective I'd say the majority of us are "serious recreational craps players" as Heavy says. Just trying to define it a bit. Not sure what a pro would be, but if someone knows feel free to fill in the gap.

So, overall I'm ahead and still learning & growing, plus I've worked my way up from a $3 player to a $25 player. Plus a nice comp-ed steak still tastes just as sweet, LOL

D.N8r

I would consider myself to be a serious recreational blackjack player...since I'm getting back into craps, I feel like I'm starting at Level 1. LOL

KoreanCowboy,
We all started at level 1. I seesaw up and down levels and sure lots of others do too, for many reasons. Like MP said in his volatility series, a lot boils down to confidence and the casinos like to erode your confidence. I have no idea what level I'm at from buy-in to buy-in, as I can't measure that; but I know when things are working, and when they're not; and can also recognize a lucky bounce.

It takes time and work. Good luck in your journey, D.N8r

Pacecar wrote:My advice is to obtain several small winning sessions, instead of trying to score big wins on a single session. Set a relatively modest session win limit, then quit each session while you're ahead and close to, or over, your win limit. When you finish each session, let some time (an hour or more) pass before returning to that particular table, or go play at a different table or casino. If you have a good betting strategy, you will cycle up and down. Try to quit each session when you are on the "up" side - so you don't have to quit on the down side when you've reached your loss limit.

This was pretty much the same strategy that I employed while playing BJ, so I intend to apply it to craps.