See a Horn, Bet a Horn---What is the probability?
Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2015 9:41 am
As I continue to re-read Grafstein's Dice Doctor, I am finding a few topics to explore further. Now we all know
know who is attributed the "See a Horn, Bet a Horn" slogan whether correctly or not.
I did notice that Grafstein also embraces this betting method for those that have to have prop action.
Grafstein basically says wait until you see a horn bet rolled, then bet $1 each ($4) total on the horn. If the shooter
continues to roll horn numbers, continue to press the horn (doubling the initial bet) each time. To me, this sounds
like "See a Horn, Bet a Horn". So my question is a twofold :
1) What is the probability of rolling two consecutive horn numbers?
2) What is the probability of rolling three consecutive horn numbers? Four?
My further analysis was to see how to minimize the exposure to the high edge (HA) this type of betting carries. To minimize the
grind down on the bankroll what if we change this betting method slightly by decreasing our initial exposure by 50%.
A) See a Horn, bet $2 on the C&E
B) If a craps number is rolled, parlay the the bet to $8 and move it to the Horn.
C) If an eleven is rolled, you can move $8 of the payout to the Horn, and add the difference to your rack. Or, you can parlay
it to a $12 Horn, and rack the remaining. Or, power press to a $16 Horn.
D) Continue partial pressing if the Horn numbers keep rolling.
Is this a valid method of betting the See a Horn, Bet a Horn strategy? I know it's still a grind down.
The payouts on a $4 Horn exceeds the payout on the Any Craps (part of C&E) bet.
(Payouts may vary by casino)
Any Craps typically pays 8 for 1.
Horn Bet 2 pays 30 for 1
Horn Bet 3 pays 15 for 1
Horn Bet 11 pays 15 for 1
Horn Bet 12 pays 30 for 1
Is the initial extra $2 towards the Horn really worth it over the long run? What if we don't see repeating Horn numbers?
By the same token, if we see repeating Horn numbers what are we losing?
know who is attributed the "See a Horn, Bet a Horn" slogan whether correctly or not.
I did notice that Grafstein also embraces this betting method for those that have to have prop action.
Grafstein basically says wait until you see a horn bet rolled, then bet $1 each ($4) total on the horn. If the shooter
continues to roll horn numbers, continue to press the horn (doubling the initial bet) each time. To me, this sounds
like "See a Horn, Bet a Horn". So my question is a twofold :
1) What is the probability of rolling two consecutive horn numbers?
2) What is the probability of rolling three consecutive horn numbers? Four?
My further analysis was to see how to minimize the exposure to the high edge (HA) this type of betting carries. To minimize the
grind down on the bankroll what if we change this betting method slightly by decreasing our initial exposure by 50%.
A) See a Horn, bet $2 on the C&E
B) If a craps number is rolled, parlay the the bet to $8 and move it to the Horn.
C) If an eleven is rolled, you can move $8 of the payout to the Horn, and add the difference to your rack. Or, you can parlay
it to a $12 Horn, and rack the remaining. Or, power press to a $16 Horn.
D) Continue partial pressing if the Horn numbers keep rolling.
Is this a valid method of betting the See a Horn, Bet a Horn strategy? I know it's still a grind down.
The payouts on a $4 Horn exceeds the payout on the Any Craps (part of C&E) bet.
(Payouts may vary by casino)
Any Craps typically pays 8 for 1.
Horn Bet 2 pays 30 for 1
Horn Bet 3 pays 15 for 1
Horn Bet 11 pays 15 for 1
Horn Bet 12 pays 30 for 1
Is the initial extra $2 towards the Horn really worth it over the long run? What if we don't see repeating Horn numbers?
By the same token, if we see repeating Horn numbers what are we losing?