Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

You know that trends exist, but you don't know one is happening when it is happening! Only after it is over, which might be the next roll!

Noah

If you don't believe it exist how would you recognize it to use it?

My opinion and answer is No. Or maybe it would be how trend is defined by each person. If I tossed three eights in a row and that was the number that I tossed most with that particular set in practice then I would certainly be betting on the eight. I guess that sequence could be defined as a trend but that is not the reason I would be betting on it or continue to bet on it. Good thought provoking question Irish.

Hmmm...
If the definition of trend is "a general tendency or direction" then you do not have to believe in it for it to exist. By the same token, if you place bet the six after the first hit and it hits again three times in a row did you bet the trend through belief? When must the bet be made in order for it to be identified as a trend bet? At what point does a trend start? I'm guessing it is arbitrary.

I've heard gamblers say,"I don't believe it! What are the chances to see three twelves in a row!" Is that an expression of belief?

There is always a trend at craps IMHO. Most players will recognize that there's a trend about the time they see Heavy coloring up and heading to the cage, because he's already capitalized on it. LOL. Hey, that's me I'm talking about.

If an eight is rolled and you use part of the payout to press the eight,you are a trend bettor even if you don't believe in trends.

No, but it certainly helps.

Trend Betting----You can win multiple times, but you only lose once.

I certainly believe in trends, but becoming a trend bettor is a challenge. I used to think if a certain number keeps coming up to bet against it but now I try to bet with a trending number. It's actually logical right. If each roll is truly random anything can happen, so why not take a chance on what is actually happening. Probabilities hold over millions of outcomes and are never linear.

I used to think if a certain number keeps coming up to bet against it but now I try to bet with a trending number.

Yes, that's a "buck the trend" strategy. Let's say you're playing Roulette and red has rolled four times. A buck-the-trend better plays black. Heavy plays red. Heavy continues to play red until black rolls. then Heavy waits until another trend (or streak, if you will) develops. Another way to look at it in this case is to bet the same as the last decision until a loss. Then wait until two same-way decisions and bet that way until you lose again. Does it always work? No. But it makes as much sense - and maybe more from my POV - as betting against the trend.

heavy wrote:There is always a trend at craps IMHO. Most players will recognize that there's a trend about the time they see Heavy coloring up and heading to the cage, because he's already capitalized on it. LOL. Hey, that's me I'm talking about.

Yeah, well, I have seen this happen on more than one occasion..Rarely, however, am I next to Heavy at the cage. I am usually standing at the table scratching my head.

Speaking of beliefs..
I believe this to be an innate ability...Hard to learn, but some of us just seem to have it. (Irish...Question please)
And no, I am not talking about 'see a horn, bet a horn', (On DI's) There is a certain logic to that..
I am not talking about the Nelli system or any derivation of that...There is logic in being 'off' more than 'on'..

I have watched Heavy and a few others do this long before anyone was scratching on paper and applying some sort of formula.
In my mind, they were far more successful then, doing it mentally and maneuvering their bets as conditions presented themselves, than using these systems...
Now that statement may be the perfect manifestation of selective memory....

Memo

Greetings Irish,

Irish, after reading your last post my friend you are a Diplomat.

Take care And lots of luck at the tables. Jaime.

Of course one does not have to believe in trends to bet them or whatever appears to be a trend in the player's eye. Craps is a game where decisions need to be made even if it's as simple as to not bet or let existing bets ride.

Hopefully we make our decisions based on something and whether those assumptions are true or not doesn't matter as that was not part of the question. Some see trends, others pure math, others DI skill through practice boxes and BoneTracker, others a lucky shooter, others a full moon on their lucky number day and so on.

If betting with no reason one might as well toss chips and let them play where they land. So anyone can bet on trends and not believe in them. Winning or losing the bets is immaterial to the your question.

Too bad being a trend follower isn't a sure fire win on every toss of the dice like every DI achieves. Of course your example applies to DIs also.

There are more things in heaven and earth, irish,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
- Hamlet (1.5.167-8), Hamlet to irish

So we disagree.........wow, again.

Kelph

I think if we are talking about random casino games, then these days I will go with the recent history or trend, rather than buck it. Just seems a more sensible way to bet for me, though no more logical than betting against the trend.

But if we are talking about a skilled shooter, then trends may tell you a lot and probably should be followed more closely. If Howard steps up to the plate with one of his usual sets and starts banging out the even numbers, then that's a trend to take note of.

I come from a world of sports betting and there I am always looking for good reasons to oppose a trend. Trends get over-bet, so opposing can be much the best value way to go. Of course in the casino if we see a valid trend from a skilled shooter and are betting that trend our odds, thankfully, remain consistent. You'll still get 7 to 6 on Howard's 10th 8 of the hand.