Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I am trying to decide where to place my bets for an upcoming casino trip. I am also considering trying to target the point by varying my set.

Should I use the foundation frequencies and the dice tool recommendations based on those frequencies? Or, should I use my actual rolls and transpose results (with, say, 750 rolls)?

The reason I ask is that the transpose sets show much stronger results for individual numbers. MUCH stronger. But am I just chasing a ghost using actual transposes and would I do better to work with the expected averages using the foundation frequencies?

Hopefully Maddog will chime in since BoneTracker (funny - at first I typed that as BongTracker) is his baby. IMHO any recent book of rollls - e.g. 750 rolls - will give you a fairly good handle on what's happening with your dice NOW - but that can vary substantially from what a long run book of rolls - say 7500 tosses - will reveal. My thoughts are to pick a set and stick with it. About the only time I vary my set during a hand is when I'm 45 minutes or so into a roll and need to bounce the point back so I can relax a minute and stretch my back a bit before continuing the hand. I would stick with the numbers I toss the most of. As for your bet size - that should probably be determined more by your bankroll size and the number of sessions you plan to play rather than your BoneTracker results.

I used to try and predict table results based on my practice results too. For me it did not work unless everything was just like my practice rig. And with all the newer types of felt and underlay materials, that was very hard to find. IMHO, your best approach is to stay with one set as Heavy suggests and give yourself a few turns around the table to see what your throwing.

Your key DI skills are being able to repeat the same throw over and over again. Thus altering the probability 'bell curve' in a consistent way. The problem is that when table conditions change, the manner in which you alter probabilities changes. Unless you're as talented and dedicated as Heavy, MP, The Dice Coach, etc.

Just make sure your throw is highly repeatable in length, arc, and spin rotation. Then track your first few turns with the dice and bet those numbers.

Tex

Heavy wrote:My thoughts are to pick a set and stick with it.

Heavy is spot on with his advice regarding switching sets during a hand or even a session. There are times when it makes sense to do it, but for the most part I believe it is more effective to use the set with which you are most comfortable and bet to what that set produces or is producing.

When messing with Transpose sets, you want to practice with that set for another 720 rolls to see if your toss is consistent enough to support the expected distribution change, or if the high numbers were simply variance in your original toss sample.

My advice has always been to get three books 720 tosses, and compare the results from those 3 separate books. If the frequency pattern is not similar between the 3 books, then your toss is not ready for specific number betting. For example, toss 720 (book #1) and review. Lets say you see that the 8 and 9 and 5, in that order, dominated the results. OK, now toss another 720 (book #2) and review. Lets say the 8 and 6 and 9 were most frequent, in that order. Ok, now toss book #3 and review. Now you find that the 9, 8, 5 are most dominant. I would say that is a good pattern.

Now let's say you did that experiment and each time the top 3 numbers were very different (6-8-9, 5-9-6, 8-9-6), then it's more likely that your pattern is just rolling around the variance and not ready to bet to specific numbers. In this case, I would just have a basic but logical betting strategy that focused on the spectrum of numbers. A simple inside progression, or an up and out, or something that made sense and allowed you to focus on your shooting without having to overly think about what your next bet is going to be.

Heavy wrote:...IMHO any recent book of rolls - e.g. 750 rolls - will give you a fairly good handle on what's happening with your dice NOW...

I agree with Heavy on this one with one BIG caveat: This is assuming that you have validated your skill and you have a consistent and reliable toss. If you have not validated your toss, or you keep switching your grip or toss motion or table position or stance, etc, etc, then one book of 720 rolls is only going to show you a mixed bag of the various semi-random results you put into it.

One more thought on changing sets. If you're shooting for numbers five and six in the Fire Bet progression then go with the set that you've practiced with that you know gives good results on the numbers you're missing. Last time I missed out on number six on the Fire bet - I was shooting for the eight. You'd think I could toss and eight but I'd made every other number on the layout as the point without tossing a single eight. The eight just disappeared on me. Couldn't find one no matter how I set the dice. But I did manage to find a seven.

hoss2626 wrote:I am trying to decide where to place my bets for an upcoming casino trip. I am also considering trying to target the point by varying my set.

Should I use the foundation frequencies and the dice tool recommendations based on those frequencies? Or, should I use my actual rolls and transpose results (with, say, 750 rolls)?

The reason I ask is that the transpose sets show much stronger results for individual numbers. MUCH stronger. But am I just chasing a ghost using actual transposes and would I do better to work with the expected averages using the foundation frequencies?

I never change my set once I start shooting, I do however change sets during the session. I see nothing to gain by changing your set during a hand, what would be the point? I can tell you it is hard enough to play this game without complicating things, changing sets would break my concentration.

When I shoot on my home table I am shooting under ideal conditions. In fact conditions could not be better. I am in a test lab operating under the best of conditions, I should do better at home always.

Everything I did at home changes when I walk into the casino. What I accomplished with my home practice was to set in my mind all the necessary items/moves needed to have a good hand in the casino.

My numbers at home are usually heavy in the 6 & 8 so I will place those two numbers when I start. I am hoping one of them will be my Point, if this happens I will have less $$$$ at risk to start off with. Keep your at risk money small in case the devil comes for an early visit.

If the 6 or 8 is not my point I will still place them.

I will then keep in mind what my other prominent at home numbers where, but I will just keep them in my mind.

I will start my hand with my Pass Line with odds and let’s say my Point is five or nine. I will then have my Point and the six and eight.

From my starting point I will then pay attention and see what numbers I am tossing. If I am not tossing those at home sixes and eights I will move those bets to numbers I am tossing. I try not to have too much AT RISK money when I first start off.

Listen to the table, watch your dice and start off slowly.

If you have read any of my Post you know I am in love with Bone Tracker. However I have learned over the years that what I do at home and what I do in a casino are not the same.

If you are taking notes write this down;
Listen to the table, watch your dice, relax, breath and start off slowly with your money and with the number of numbers you are betting on. Take your time and ease into it, no sense rushing or chasing numbers! If after tossing three times and doing nothing take a break the game will be there when you return.

Good luck and great Post.