Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

As with all of us, my understanding and approach to the game is constantly evolving. This is where I am currently. I've been reading and absorbing a lot of the great info here and thinking about how to incorporate DP and regressions into my play.

After reading through things, it appears my current betting approach is along the lines of a Piroli progression. My approach these days is to play conservatively early in the roll with an eye towards waiting on longer rolls and betting into them as they develop. After assessing the table trying to identify any DI's, for the majority of shooters, I'm initially laying off the pass line and placing 6 & 8. I always take the first hit on a placed number and then start raising by one unit on subsequent hits. As the roll count deepens, my increases on each subsequent hit increase. I track each placed number separately, using the following progressions. I would appreciate any feedback to this.

6 & 8
[tr] [th][b]Hit[/b][/th] [th][b]Bet[/b][/th] [th][b]Pays[/b][/th] [th][b]Increase[/b][/th] [th][b]Drop[/b][/th] [th][b]Take[/b][/th] [th][b]Profit[/b][/th] [/tr] [tr] [td]1[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]1[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]2[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]2[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]3[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]14[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]8[/td] [td]10[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]4[/td] [td]18[/td] [td]21[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]19[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]5[/td] [td]30[/td] [td]35[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]42[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]6[/td] [td]42[/td] [td]49[/td] [td]18[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]31[/td] [td]73[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]7[/td] [td]60[/td] [td]70[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]60[/td] [td]131[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]8[/td] [td]72[/td] [td]84[/td] [td]18[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]66[/td] [td]197[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]9[/td] [td]90[/td] [td]105[/td] [td]18[/td] [td]3[/td] [td]90[/td] [td]284[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]10[/td] [td]108[/td] [td]126[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]114[/td] [td]398[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]11[/td] [td]120[/td] [td]140[/td] [td]30[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]110[/td] [td]508[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]12[/td] [td]150[/td] [td]175[/td] [td]30[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]145[/td] [td]653[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]13[/td] [td]180[/td] [td]210[/td] [td]30[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]180[/td] [td]833[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]14[/td] [td]210[/td] [td]245[/td] [td]30[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]215[/td] [td]1048[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]15[/td] [td]240[/td] [td]280[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]280[/td] [td]1328[/td] [/tr] 5 & 9
[tr] [th][b]Hit[/b][/th] [th][b]Bet[/b][/th] [th][b]Pays[/b][/th] [th][b]Increase[/b][/th] [th][b]Drop[/b][/th] [th][b]Take[/b][/th] [th][b]Profit[/b][/th] [/tr] [table] [tr] [th]Hit[/th] [th]Bet[/th] [th]Pays[/th] [th]Increase[/th] [th]Drop[/th] [th]Take[/th] [th]Profit[/th] [/tr] [tr] [td]1[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]2[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]2[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]4[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]3[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]14[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]13[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]4[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]21[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]24[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]5[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]35[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]49[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]6[/td] [td]35[/td] [td]49[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]35[/td] [td]83[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]7[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]70[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]55[/td] [td]138[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]8[/td] [td]65[/td] [td]91[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]81[/td] [td]219[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]9[/td] [td]75[/td] [td]105[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]90[/td] [td]309[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]10[/td] [td]90[/td] [td]126[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]116[/td] [td]425[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]11[/td] [td]100[/td] [td]140[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]115[/td] [td]540[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]12[/td] [td]125[/td] [td]175[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]150[/td] [td]690[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]13[/td] [td]150[/td] [td]210[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]185[/td] [td]875[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]14[/td] [td]175[/td] [td]245[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]220[/td] [td]1095[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]15[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]280[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]280[/td] [td]1375[/td] [/tr] 4 & 10 (here, I'm trying to race to buy the number at $25 with minimal risk to my chip stack)
[tr] [th][b]Hit[/b][/th] [th][b]Bet[/b][/th] [th][b]Pays[/b][/th] [th][b]Increase[/b][/th] [th][b]Vig[/b][/th] [th][b]Drop[/b][/th] [th][b]Take[/b][/th] [th][b]Profit[/b][/th] [/tr] [tr] [td]1[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]-1[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]2[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]18[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]1[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]3[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]24[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]4[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]100[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]45[/td] [td]69[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]5[/td] [td]100[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]170[/td] [td]238[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]6[/td] [td]125[/td] [td]250[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]220[/td] [td]456[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]7[/td] [td]150[/td] [td]300[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]240[/td] [td]696[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]8[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]1086[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]9[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]1476[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]10[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]1866[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]11[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]2256[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]12[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]2646[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]13[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]3036[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]14[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]3426[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]15[/td] [td]200[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]0[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]400[/td] [td]3816[/td] [/tr]

With that kind of progression you might never see step 15! Lol
Also, assuming you start with $5 bets, I would guess betting $240 6 and 8's would really get the stomach in some knots!
I would try starting a little higher on my opening bet after qualifying the shooters than either do a collect/full press or collect/power press so I'm collecting green chips after 2 or 3 hits.

Tonybugs

tonybugs wrote:With that kind of progression you might never see step 15! Lol
Also, assuming you start with $5 bets, I would guess betting $240 6 and 8's would really get the stomach in some knots!
I would try starting a little higher on my opening bet after qualifying the shooters than either do a collect/full press or collect/power press so I'm collecting green chips after 2 or 3 hits.

Tonybugs

Tony, I've taken this progression to about 12 on a couple of occasions. I don't usually sweat the chips on the table and consider them the casino's until they're sitting in my rack. In my mind, it's the prince of entry to bet into a long roll and build up some good profit when they strike. Perhaps that's shortsighted, but my understanding of the game is constantly evolving and I'm always open to making positive modifications to my playing style.

I will adjust starting bets for shooters, including me, as the session unfolds. Even with my own shot, I'll start myself out with 1 unit 6&8 place bets until I get a sense of how my shot is shaping up. One I get comfortable, I'll progress to 22 or 34 inside, depending on how things are looking.

Mad Professor wrote:Hi 22Inside,

Are you using this betting-method just on yourself and other possible-DI's; or are you using this on a wholesale, every-shooter basis?

The reason I ask is because, on a wholesale basis; your multiple-session losses will usually outpace your multiple-session wins, even if one or two of your sessions produce an outsized win.

That is, if you apply this to everyone; then it's pretty safe to say that after ten or so reasonable-length sessions; you will usually find yourself increasingly behind, instead of increasingly ahead.

On the other hand, if you have a validated in-casino shooting-advantage; then I can see why a widely-cast All-Across betting-method would be attractive. However, because you are instantly 're-investing' most of your just-won earnings; your prospects of getting ahead are limited.

That is, because very little of your initial winnings are racked as net-profit; you aren't taking maximum advantage of the early highest-survival part of each hand....and instead, banking on a longer-duration hand to bring in the lion's share of your profits.

Unfortunately, most of the monies contributed by your longer hands will have to go to making up for what you lose on your shorter-duration hands...and therefore, your overall net-gains will be quite limited.


MP

Funny you ask that MP. I've recently started entirely passing on some shooters. I used to stubbornly play this for every shooter and would have more down sessions than up (although I wasn't keeping close track of shooting and session metrics...that's certainly something I plan on correcting as I start to learn more from hanging around here). This small tweak has helped to some extent, based on a small sample size. But I think I need to learn more about DP play and work that into my arsenal of play.

For myself and other possible DI that I initially eye when starting a session, I start with 1 unit 6&8 place bets only (obviously I'll also place a pass line bet on myself). As I get a better feel for them, and how my shot is shaping up, I'll adjust accordingly with the addition of pass line bets or increased inside place bets.

I'm always looking and open to tweaks in any aspects of my game. Thanks for the insights and feedback.