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How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:52 pm
by Americraps
....And How Much Would You Make?
WHile practicing today at home I ran into a weird hand that made me think of the H mans horn progressions.
3,5,3,8,3,3,11,3,3,5,5,3,3,8,4,5,3,3,7. After posting this I realized that toss was a CO7 and the hand should be continued, but now that I'm typing, I think I'll just let it be the end of my practice session.
Alas I was come betting with my EO experiment and the 3s were costing me $10 each, but I was thinking of a horn progression after the 3rd 3. I don't think Ive ever shot 10 ace deuces in a hand before.
Re: How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:22 pm
by rhythm roller
Americraps,
It will be very interesting to see how people answer this. I thought my husband was the only one to toss this many 3's. Sometimes he is a three machine! If the house edge is 2.78 % on the field then I go with just betting that. I am sure I could make more money doing something else. Good question!
Re: How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:39 pm
by mssthis1
I wouldn't make anything as I typically don't bet the middle. I'm curious about what set you were using? If I start tossing 3's and 11's using the standard 3V sets, I back way off on my bets as the ace deuces and yo's are either double pitches or both die off axis. .
Re: How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:50 am
by heavy
On the third 3 I'd have tossed out a whopping $4 horn. On the subsequent four hits I would have pressed it to $8, $12, $16, and $20. On that fifth hit I would have been kicking my own ass for not parlaying the first hit. I'd have placed the 6 and 8, although there was no reason to do so other than the fact that I pretty much always bet the six and eight. But I'd have probably taken them down with all of the crap action going on. The only other number I'd have bet would have been the five, but not until after the third one rolled, which means I'd only have gotten paid on it once. Net? Probably would have made around $70. Not that much but I'm not going to bet that much on a hand like that.
Re: How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:49 am
by London Shooter
It's a great looking streak but I tend to be slow at picking up on things like that and then don't bet them anyway
So, honest answer. I would have bet it like sh*t. If it was my own hand, I may well have been doing some come bets too, so would have lost maybe thee of those - then I would have given up. Like H I'd probably have a 6&8 out there too. Would have got paid something on a pressed 8 on the second hit given my current play, but in short that hand would prob be a wash at best and easily a loss if come betting.
If it was a randy hand, then chances are I wouldn't have been on it at all, other than I may have had some small ATS action.
Re: How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:41 am
by Moe Bettor
I had a similar session at Cherokee using a 3V. I didn't chase it..like London Shooter I ignored it, but started a conversation with a guy at the
end of the table who was constantly on the horn. I asked if he wanted me to keep doing it..and possibly throw me something to influence the dice. He actually threw a green one at me for all I was giving him. Sometimes you make something even if you don't bet on it.
Re: How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:50 am
by Mad Professor
Americraps wrote:....And How Much Would You Make?
3,5,3,8,3,3,11,3,3,5,5,3,3,8,4,5,3,3,7.
~If I saw you as an unknown-to-me dice-influencer; I would apply my MP $204-Across two-hit, equal-pay Regression, along with my delayed-trigger Field-Harvest.
~So, once you established your PL-Point (the 5); I would wager $204-Across ($25 each on the 4 & 10...$35 each on the 5 & 9...and $42 each on the 6 & 8)...which pays a net of $49 each when any of those wagers hit.
The intent here is to collect two hits at the $49 pre-regression level, and then regress everything down to $44-Inside...after which, I employ a Passive-Aggressive press-schedule.
~My delayed-trigger Field-Harvest requires two consecutive Field-numbers before I put an every-roll-until-the-end-of-that-hand $100 wager out in the meadow.
The MP $204-Across would fare this way:
3, 5 (MP-$204 is deployed), 3, 8 (collect $49), 3, 3, 11, 3, 3, 5 (collect another $49, and regress everything down to $44-Inside, thus locking-in a guaranteed in-rack profit of +$54 no matter what else happens in this hand), 5 (new PL-Point is established), 3, 3, 8 (collect $14 payout from $12 Place-8 wager, and press this wager to $18, thus locking-in another +$8 of net-profit), 4, 5 (collect $14 from the $10 Place-5 wager, and press it to $15, thus locking in another +$9 of net-profit), 3, 3, 7.
Since Americraps finished shooting here, all of my then-active wagers would be returned in full ($15 on the Place-5...$12 on the Place-6...$18 on the Place-8...and $10 on the Place-9)...so the hand itself made +$71, and the return of my then-active box-number wagers would add another +$55 (since the cost of my $44-Inside had already been accounted for when I regressed everything down from $204-Inside.
So net-net, the MP-$204 would have made: +$126
Let's see how my delayed-trigger Field-Harvest would have fared on this DI:
Remember, we are looking for our unknown-to-me DI to roll two back-to-back Field-numbers before I put out a flat $100 from-there-until-the-end-of-his-hand wager.
3, 5 ,3, 8, 3, 3 (the MP delayed-trigger Field-Harvest gets triggered here after two consecutive DI-tossed F-numbers), 11 (+$100), 3 (+$100), 3 (+$100), 5 (-$100), 5 (-$100), 3 (+$100), 3 (+$100), 8 (-$100), 4 (+$100), 5 (-$100), 3 (+$100), 3 (+$100), 7 (-$100).
Net-net, my Field-Harvest would have made: +$300.
So...
MP $204-Across Regression...................................+$126
MP delayed-trigger Field-Harvest:...........................+$300
My net-profit off of Americraps' hand would have been: +$426
MP
Re: How Would You Bet This Hand?
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:45 pm
by Americraps
Thats a nice profit, MP. I didn't know that you used the field harvest on other DIs. That's cool.
Missthis- I was using a 2v 22 on top 31 facing. Most of the ace deuces were both on axis/single pitch, but a few were left die off.
If I was in the casino and someone I didn't know tossed this hand, I might have placed the 5 and got one hit, lol. If I was in the right mood, I might have tried the old Iron Cross, I know my brother would have made a ton betting the horn as he usually bets that on the comeout. By the 3rd 3, he would have had a quarter on the wirl.
These goofy once in a few year hands are fun to play with, but they don't come around enough to make it worth building a strategy for.