Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I am really looking forward to the information and ideas this thread will generate.

I am a very novice "Don't" player but I will take shot a at the questions above just to see if I have actually learned anything regarding don't play.

(1) Come out 7's and even worse a string of come out 7's.

(2) I would guess limiting your progressions in some way but I am looking forward to learning exactly the best ways to do this.

(3) once you are past the come out roll and a point is established then a Don't player has a mathematical advantage over the right side bettors.

My thoughts:

1, Come out 7s and 11s and blindly continuing in a long hand not only when 7s and 11s are on the comeout but where many points are also made.
2. Have a stop loss. Maybe your progression allows you to go to 3, 4, 5 bets on the same shooter? You have to stop somewhere within reason. Don't increase your progression by too high a %age. Commonly people double after a loss. Go up say 50% instead and you'll not use up your bankroll so quickly.
3. On average the don't side wins more often than the do - yes this is compensated by the lesser payouts offered and essentially the house edge is the same either side, but you'll find less long losing strings on the don'ts on average which is probably why they are seen to "work" better, as per your quote marks.

1. What are the killers of all don't systems?
Two killers: a) repeating Come Out 7/11; b) getting most or all of your DP/DC bets knocked off one-by-one on a long roll shooter before a 7-out.
2. What are best practices to prevent a single hand or back to back hands from making your negative progression multiply too high?
Don't bet on come-out rolls. Only DC bets made after a line number has rolled. Limit your bets to no more than two DC bets (with odds) per shooter. No replacement of losing DC bets. Apply any progressions to bets made on next shooter.
3. Why do negative progressions "work" better on the don't than the do?
Because there is the greater probability of a 7-out before going bust vs. hitting your numbers on the DO side.

1. The biggest killers I see is not taking the action on 6's and 8's, trying to get it all back too quick if you get behind, not realizing that playing a don't progression with odds takes a larger session bankroll than playing pass line only and not utilizing lay bets.

When i think back about the number of times I've seen the dice go around the table multiple times without anyone making a pass line point back in the day when I was more stubborn, I've toyed with the idea of using a positive progression but I've never taken the time to figure one out.

Only 7% (rounded up) of shooters make 3 or more pass line points. In theory sitting out until a pass is made and then running a 3 level negative progression should work unless you're in the every roll is an independent trial camp. If you chose play this way plan on a lot of TUMA time.

Personally I play a 3 tiered negative progression quite a bit on the don't with a session bankroll limit which is also tiered. If I have a losing session I start with a larger base bet and larger session bankroll the next session.

Where is wwwww when we need him?

irish wrote:OK. Let's start with the naturals. The first way to limit how many naturals can beat you on an individual shooter, is to bet the DC, and have a threshold for back to back 11's that beat you. A negative progression can be used on the DP, but you increase volatility, which we're trying to limit as much as possible. We're only going to try to get a single DC wager established and wait for the outcome. In this exercise, we'll use $5 wagers, but you're welcome to increase the base unit.

So now come more questions.

What is the threshold for losses on an individual shooter? (for instance, he/she tosses a yo with your bet in the DC, then you get your DC established, and it's picked off)
How many "levels" to the negative progression? (If your progression was $5, $7, $12, $25, $50, this would be five levels.)
How many consecutive "level" or "tier" losses to abandon session?
How many "tiers" to the negative progression? Let's call this a recovery tier. (Mssthis1 mentioned this. If tier 1 progression loses, do you run the progression with 2X times unit size?)
What is the bet threshold (if any) for "protection" wagers ($1 yo, 3 way seven etc.)
For those that are disciplined, but simply can't watch a long hand go by, do you build in a transition to right side strategy?

..
Irish
...Is there any advantage to laying a specific box number of your choice and paying the 5% vig commission on the potential winnings
Vs
simply making serial Don't Come wagers while avoiding paying that 5% steam ?

W C

irish
Thank you for the rapid response......
...Frightening feeling we may be in close agreement on this
.
However Factor : You nailed it better than I and in far fewer words....

I am not familiar with " WOV "
<<<<<<<I>>>>>>>>>>>
Because neither the D/P and D/C is a "contract wager" ,they offer a wager maker the option of removing that bet
should the subsequent roll show a number with which said player feels uncomfortable.
( those wagers may be removed by the wager maker after any number of toss trials )
...
Laying a Box Number incurs a 5% commission
Any Box Number bet against may be removed by the wager maker
.
A player may elect to remove the wager without penalty and have his 5%commission
returned ...Should the player become uncomfortable with his wager at risk,he may
instruct the dealer to return it same as someone may do with a BUY WAGER
on the Four ( 4 ) or Ten ( 10 ) usually after some arbitrary number of tosses...
( prior to a decision by the dice)
.
The Place Wager and the Lay Wager share the commonality of being on a number
chosen by the player as opposed chosen by total chance determined by the
out come of a crap shoot.......
.
An objection at times uttered is from folks who declare they refuse to make a bet
that returns less than the $ at risk in winnings upon the wager being decided in their favor..........I fully comprehend the higher vig ...
.
.Not in favor of wagering "The Farm"
or a major portion of the BANK on a single outcome be it
next card,next roll,fastest horse....
.....or whatever commentaries THE HOUSE hangs out as bait to entice the
unwary to stay & play one wager TOO LONG

Not sure if my thoughts contribute much in developing
an all around usable negative progression....
..Should one come out of this I certainly will give it a test ride

just me saying

w c

WOV is the wizardofvegas site.

I often read the forum and it still has some good stuff on there. A lot of maths types who thankfully don't stand for any nonsense, such as "I can beat roulette with xx system".

It is also the best resource I know for telling you odds, best strategy and house edge on all casino games, including craps and contains a definitive list of craps side bets too, explaining them in detail, again including house edge tables.

Wizard of Las Vegas...O K now I comprehend..
..been awhile ---have gone there a time or two

w c

Here's what I use as a guideline. I'm also willing to make an audible and change if the table conditions warrant it.

Threshold on an individual shooter. 3 losses including losses to a seven or eleven if they come consecutively as in the shooter makes their point and then tosses two sevens in a row.

Levels. 3, but I take odds and don't count sevens or elevens except in the 3 strikes and you're out on one shooter. If a shooter makes their pass and then tosses two naturals I start at the second step of the progression on the next shooter.

If I'm picked off twice by individual shooters making 3 passes I quit if I haven't already switched to the pass side because the table is positive.

I run the 2x progression on the next session or table change if the first, base progression session is a loser.

I don't hedge as I feel you're giving away profit in exchange for reduced volatility.

If I can't set there and watch any longer I place the six and eight for $12.00. If I get two hits, start spreading out on the third hit. If the third hit is a six I'll place the 5 for $10.00 etc.

[quote="irish"

With reasonable discipline and firm rules to eliminate large drawdowns on a single shooter, I would suspect that a DC negative progression would be a strong strategy on randies. The question would be whether you could get beaten by the same shooter twice, then watch a long roll......[/quote]


In a market with multiple tables within reasonably close proximity to each other that shouldn't be an issue. Just move to a different table.

Since the weather is rather crappy here today I might try this tonight at a local casino that has tables which are pretty much random number generators. I plan on betting $25.00 units with a win goal of 10 units and a loss limit of 21 units. I'll report back tomorrow with results.

Please recap with an example the current DC progression proposal. Thanks!

Irish wrote :partial quote " What is the threshold for losses on an individual shooter? (for instance, he/she tosses a yo with your bet in the DC, then you get your DC established, and it's picked off)
- How many "levels" to the negative progression? (If your negative progression was $5, $7, $12, $25, $50, this would be five levels.) "end partial quote.......................
<<
As players become seasoned by the experience that develops from observing casino excursion building upon more casino excursions you will witness players in the chase
of a win or break even involving a series lost wagers
( Throw aside caution and/or discipline ...........
.....that could even be an otherwise Advantage Player ...)
.
That is a lot of sugar for a dollar ....
...... with the frustration of boldly pursuing financial ruin..
.
Five shooters back to back in a row ..
It may be rare to lose five back to back Pass Line or D/C....However Factor at a craps table anything could occur......
.
There have been a few bitter events that as a Transition Player ,I have experienced
a net loss ...Lost wagers on both sides of the game on one hand....
.
The specifics were having a D/ P with three (3) D/C wagers
then Transitioned to Come Wagers and got my wagers canceled on both sides....
.
That horror show series occurs infrequently...HOWEVER FACTOR...it still happens...
.
Ever stood at a craps table and shooter after tosses every number once ,then 7's OUT?

Then ,with little fanfare several numbers show twice with a sudden ill timed SEVEN ?
Even if you win a single or two wagers,it bottom lines to a U S D loss...
.
Since a series of short hands may encourage a player to wager on the Don't..
...on any hand,it just comes down to being a CRAP SHOOT.....
.
The $5, $7, $12, $25, $50 run to the $50 wager involves $99
Monies at greater value would place at risk substantially larger amounts and could
reach the craps table maximum prior to a decision favorable to our wager maker................
Odds are a five(5) Level negative progression will yield a small dollar amount win,
wager makers are advised to go at it knowing there are zero guarantees ....
...
My thoughts :
The DARK SIDE negative progression is a way to " pay the rent "on table space
while awaiting for the dice to travel around so our D I could turn the game around ..
...At least for one hand....Hit & git

W C

it took over 2 hours but I was able to reach a 10 unit win.

When I first got there the table was packed so I had to wander around for 20 minutes and was about to leave when a spot opened on SL1. I played a DP progression since I didn't get the end position I wanted.

I played the following way. 10X odds game. Base bet, $5 DP with $30 odds no matter the point. If that lost I went to $5 DP with $42, $45 or $50 odds. If that lost $5 dp with max odds. Seven and eleven comeout losses were ignored.

I did lose 3 bets in a row for a draw down pretty early on. After that the trend was make 1st point, set second point and promptly seven out. Once that started I bumped the odds up a little on the second tier as long as the point wasn't 4 or 10. I know that is counter intuitive to the common thinking but it is too hard to recover if you get picked off multiple times on the 4 or 10. I'd rather lay $60 odds to win $50 on a six or eight than lay $100 to win $50 on a 4 or 10.

We plodded along this way for a couple circuits, slowly building and all of a sudden a string of 5 PSO's in a row and it's color coming in, up $250 and $11 for the dealers.


Except for the string of PSO's a DP strategy probably would have worked better. Nobody was repeating any numbers except for the 5 and there was a lot of comeout sevens. During the entire period there was only one craps winner on the DP comeout and at least 10, seven or eleven losers.

I had opportunities to move to the end and switch to a DC strategy but I didn't do it. I will next time.

The hardest part was saying "pass" when the dice came to me. I've played in this place long enough to know their tables are too bouncy to tame and it's one of the few places that I'm a net loser on my own shooting, but it is still hard for me to pass the dice.

Hi Irish: That was a typo. I meant to say DC.

The main reason I stuck with a DP progression being at SL1 is the majority of the crew at this place are not what I consider upper echelon or even average dealers. If I knew I could safely toss a chip toward the DC box and not have to argue with them because they co mingled it with other bets I would have done it.

One time on a comeout sequence the stick person picked up my DP flat bet 3 times in a row while leaving a red chip on the pass line that had come flying in from middle bettors. It a constant babysitting job there to make sure your bets end up where you intend them to. I realize you have to watch your money but, with the mistakes this crew makes you have to be extra attentive. On the plus side one dealer was paying $36.00 for $42.00 odds on the six and eight and told me I was wrong when I said $35.00.

The pass line bettors were slaughtered while I was there. I saw at least 4K in buy ins and I was the only person who colored up ahead.

Decent win mss considering you tell us there were at least 10 sevens or 11s on the come-out. I guess when most of your action is in odds, this is of smaller consequence, but a flat betting DP player I guess they may have struggled to make money from the same session. What do you think?

A person betting the flat only would have had a very tough go of it on the don't pass at that table last night. I didn't chart but there were many comeout sevens, a few elevens, one ace duece and one boxcars for a push. The one person who tossed 3 passline winners only did so because he threw at least one seven on each comeout roll and he was definitely a Randy. If his dice landed in the same region twice, it was purely by chance.

There was one young guy who was setting 3V on top with random facing dice who had a nice toss. All his rolls but one were in the 8-12 range but none were long enough to hurt a don't bettor. He tossed several single pass line winners but never made the second point. If he had been on the same side of the table as I was, I would have tried to talk him into setting 6/2 or 5/1 facing and switched sides on him only. He tossed several ace/deuce and yo primary hits. None of his seven outs were double pitches.

A person betting the passline flat only may have made a little money and I think a DC flat system would have worked.

I think this highlights two kinds of approaches for a don'ts progression system if you are using DP:

1. Flat betting without odds - you need to be disciplined in only losing so many bets per shooter e.g 1 or 2
2. DP betting using odds as your progression - you can probably afford to ignore more come out losers, especially if you are in a house that offers large x odds and you are comfortably bankrolled to be starting your progression from a higher base level, where the DP is just a small proportion of your intended risk.

When using odds you have less money exposed to the HA during comeout rolls when your flat bet has eight ways to lose and only 3 ways to win.

The profitability curve is a tough one. You would think it would be more linear since you have lowered your exposure during come out rolls. Since you have to bet more than you win in reality the profitability curve will have more volatility downward blips. You'll run into those short term trends of pass line winners just as you run into those strings of naturals when betting DP only or PSO's if utilizing the DC. 4's and 10's are more painful as they require 2 wins to recover from 1 loss if the bet amount remains static.

I consider 500 tosses short term yet, that is several hours of play at packed tables that have the ATS and several middle players. It will seem like forever when you're going through a short term trend in downward volatility.

Long term result of the odds portion should be level - if the long term is long enough

Profit curve (or loss curve, probably) I think I would expect to be smoother too given smaller bets will be exposed to CO rolls, as mss says above.