Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Does the trend at the table impact how you bet your own hand?

For example, let's say the last three shooters hands went something like this:

7 - 11 - 7 - 10 - 5 - 7 out
9 - 2 - 3 - 5 - 7 out
5 - 4 - 9 - 7 out

Okay, you're the next shooter. Pass or Don't Pass. Come Out strategy? Place bets? Lay bets? Hedge bets? Any other action?

My old motto is "lose on three in a row and it's time to go." Does that apply or is there an opportunity here? Or does what went before even matter in the great scheme of things.

Thoughts?

If I am the next shooter I would usually play that hand. I would play my normal fake shooting from the pl unless I am off that day or session then I would shoot from the don'ts to work on my shooting with very little exposure

Did not mean to post the same thing twice. I was trying to edit my first post

it's a don't play to me.

I meant dark side play.

I'll play "due number" and the OH-CM. There's gotta be a six or eight in those dice someplace.

LOL. This is one of those places where SIA and I will differ. I'd be more likely to LAY the six and/or eight on the Come Out. But if I'm the shooter I have to make a Pass Line or Don't Pass bet. So which way to go? Let me think. $25 no six - $25 no eight (working on the come out) and a $50 Pass Line (no odds if the seven does not show). If I establish a point of five I'm going to lay the shit out of it. Any other point - no odds. Down on the no six and no eight. Let's see if we can bring the point back without losing $50. Kind of goofy play, but what the heck. Thoughts?

If it's a table I have a history on, the moon is in the right place, and my first toss looks good I bet as normal on myself. If those 3 conditions aren't met I bet 40% of normal. Normal is a pass line bet with at least $25 odds and $135 across. Collect until I recoup the initial layout and press from there.

I'm already looking at the nearby tables looking for greener pastures. Since I am the next shooter, I will tiptoe in starting with a PL bet. Once the point is established, I would make one place bet and one come bet and go from there. I can break the trend! My positive thinking sometimes gets the best of me. Like mssthis1, collect initial outlay and press from there. After my roll, if unsuccessful I will color up and try to find better conditions. I am not that good at transition moves. My timing is sometimes off and I end up getting whacked on a choppy table. I am in favor of cutting and running.

I have been thinking a little along these lines. I'll admit the "due number" was tongue in cheek. However, here is what I am going to try the next time I go to a casino. It is a combination of the OH-CM and MP's Choppy Table Short Lease method. This method says to wait until a RR has made a point, then jump in with a DP, continuing with a Grand Martingale up to 5 losses which on a $5 would be -$285.
(from MP: There is a 0.5% chance that a random-roller will make their sixth PL-Point in a row. So only 1-out-of-200 random-rollers are likely to make six PL-Points in a row.) My thinking is I do not want to wait around for the first RR point win (excluding 7/11) so on the CO try out the OH-CM then jump to the Choppy Table Short Lease method. Of course I am a nut case. (If you had $285 loss, it was take 22 wins to recover). So if I lose on the OH-CM after a point is established, I am in line to jump to the CTSL method.

Dave: You are correct about that. Heavy and I have been in a discussion concerning that very thing. However, IF I throw in a bit of Grafstein and let the shooter only beat me once (a 7 or 11 CO), not much loss. Next shooter, do it again.
(Our discussion revolved around whether to $1 any seven or $1 yo for a CO hedge - the seven cuts the loss odds from 23% to 17%, a 26% increase. The Yo cuts the loss possibility by 20%. (O.K. A doey-dont cuts the odds to ~3% and it will not work for me.)
Part of this is I have looked at systems for many years, collected them until I lost them all in a computer crash and too lazy to start up again. I have not found one yet that is fool proof and the above is not either. But it is close but I suspect it will get quite boring. There just isn't any way with a negative expectation of the game, so whittle it down to the lowest common denominator.
Let me add here: One could do a $2 any Seven and a $1 Yo and completely hedge the CO but then the system is not a OH-CM anymore.

SIA what is the OH-CM? I probably know it, but can't think what it stands for right now.

That's One Hit - Can't Miss. If you are not familiar with it, there are many threads in the search engine.

Sort of an update here. I have been running the combination version of OH-CM and MP's Choppy Table short lease method on WinCraps. It is working very well. It is certainly too small a sample to draw iron clad conclusions but since I have not figured out how to program the AutoBet I am having to manually enter ever bet. Here is the system I'm using.
Use OH-CM on CO, and if knocked off twice with naturals, wait for a new shooter OR after I have quit on that shooter and he establishes a point and makes it, jump in with the short lease method.
I am starting with a $500 BR. $5 DP and if a point is established place the 6 & 8 for $6 each. If the shooter makes his point, continue with the CTSL method. (Which is a Grand Martainglale)
So far: 6.65 hrs @ 120 RPH
Won 2093 bets, lost 1591 for 14.09 win percentage
BR started at $500, now $1002. ($75 bucks an hour)
Bets decided: 388 Won 188 Lost 200. I think this consist of 84 shooters. Not sure on that. (If it was, made $6 bucks per shooter)
Anyways, it seems to have possibilities and if anyone could program this into wincraps, let me know the results. I will start anew since I have doubled my BR sia

Are you incorporating any DC action? We need to have a lunch and expand on this.

So it's been five years since this thread was started. I doubt that anyone's opinion has changed but I'll toss it out there again. Does the TREND at a table change YOUR approach to play when YOU get the dice.

If the last FIFTEEN players went PSO and now YOU have the dice WHAT WOULD BE YOUR BET? Pass or Don't Pass? Which way do you go. Do you bet WITH the trend or ANTI trend? Why? Expand on your answer?

I am nervous to just start betting on Randies. If I am next to get the dice and I have not been losing more than hit here or there. Then two things are apparent:

1. I am playing because I feel that my practice is up to the task to be somewhat dependable in tossing out in the wild, and

2. since it is a random game up to my getting the dice, I don't pay any attention to the crappy tossing of the last three players. I would play my strengths irrespective of what went before. This is why practice and bone tracker are keys here, not "trending" in the garbage can of tourist tosses.

Now if I walked up and somebody is having a monster hand and hitting box numbers and hard ways and finally hits their number. I would get in and follow their trends gladly when the old "off" is out there.

Normally i do not let other players influence how i bet my hand when i am tossing, at least until i have tossed at least once myself. It would also matter to me if i was with a group of known DIs or bought in at a table full of randies i didnt know. If i bought in on a table of 15(not likely) i would bet very little until i saw how the table was doing. In this scenario i would probably be playing some OHCM and/or laying some numbers by the time it got back to me but i would still bet my first hand as usual. If i PSO"d as well i would not wait around to toss again.

If it was a table of 12 , meaning i had already tossed once i would bet pass line double odds and pick a couple of numbers i was most confident in hitting to start.

Since I’d have made good dark side money on the previous shooters I’d be feeling pretty good. If I’m in my preferred spot I’d do a minimum pass line bet and an old Heavy play, $30 6 & 8, one hit down to $18 6 & 8. Press from there. If out of preffered spot I’d pass the dice and continue dark side play.