Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I was re-reading Bobby Bone's baccarat thread and came across a play he mentioned that I think has application to Craps. In fact, we've discussed something similar before.

In baccarat the play is to chart the other players at the table until one of them has won four consecutive decisions. From that point on you bet the opposite of his play, using a negative progressions, until you score a win. The theory behind this was simple. It's rare that you see a player at baccarat win more than eight consecutive decisions. So odds are you won't have to make more than four or five negative progression bets before scoring a win. Of course, anything can happen. Nevertheless . . .

Let me remind you of a craps play we've discussed before that revolves around the Fire Bet. Typically the Fire Bet does not pay off (at its lowest level) until the shooter makes four of the numbers. You'll rarely see a shooter get beyond three numbers, so with this play you Lay against the fourth point and utilize a negative progression beyond that.

Now, it's easier to score four PASSES than it is to score Pass Line wins on four different numbers. But four plus Pass Line winners (excluding naturals) are definitely the exception to the norm. I know, that's contrary to how most of us play. Just go with it. My thought is to wait until the shooter makes four passes. After the fourth pass is made wait until the fifth point is established then Lay against the point. If you lose that bet then repeat the same bet on the next point. If that one loses then increase your bets progressively from there.

Thoughts?

Tried that @ baccarat. I made some green but lost it back when those long streaks showed up. Craps is just a tad more choppy and just a little less streaky, so it may have an advantage,imho. That being said it is not a bad add on bet but I think one should not take it past 5 bets if not less than that.

H my thought is rigor mortis may set in at times before you ever place a bet waiting for that 4th pass to be hit

Yes, I find boredom to be a problem with just about every form of systematic play.

I think we're more at the table for the action and lay betting means you wait around. I do like to snipe the cold shooters though, but I cannot use progressions with lay betting. If I get knocked off I just wait to try and get another read on the situation..and I may just go positive.

I like a lot of systematic plays and can find them far from boring, but they probably need to have several elements contained within the play and have to make me feel I am in the game enough - whatever "enough" means. Maybe 50% of the time? Certainly waiting for a 4th point to be hit before laying the next point is nowhere near enough action for me in a craps session, though I guess you could have it as part of your arsenal of boring plays which combined could be a lot more interesting

I love boring craps plays.

What if instead of waiting out ( choose a number ) of Pass Line dissensions
you elected
to make your Lay Wager after ( choose a number ) number of tosses ?

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