Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Took my folks to see the ponies the other weekend. Didn't bet much, $20 total. Covered lunch and took home an extra sixty bucks.

Managed to score on three $2 WINs, two $2 SHOWs, a $1 box Trifecta ($6), and a 10 cent box Superfecta ($2.40). All relatively small payouts, but a win is a win. Beautiful day, was in the 70's.

Man, I live betting the ponies and the puppies. Thanks for the post.

Which track is that BD?

Good morning ,


Here is a simple system to play the ponies with , in this system you are going to handicap only post postion 1/2/or 3. If you notice i said handicap POST POSTION 1 OR 2 OR 3, AND NOT HORSE NUMBER
1 OR 2 OR 3.
The reason being that post postion 1 or 2 or 3 wins OR places 75 % of all races in the U.S.A.
So make your bet to place AND not to win.

When their are only 5 minutes left to post time HANDICAP post postion 1, if pp 1 is 9 to 2 or less play the 1.

Now if pp 1 is 5 to 1 or higher DON'T PLAY PP 1. NOW YOU HANDICAP PP 2, if at that moment

pp 2 is 9 to 2 OR less, then you play pp 2.

NOW if pp 2 is 5 to 1 or higher THEN you will handicap pp 3, if pp 3 is 9 to 2 or less then you play pp 3.

IFyou notice THIS system is only to handicap post postion, and not the horse # 1 or 2 or 3.

I KNOW 90% WILL NOT understand what i am talking about, but the other 10% will.

If i may with bankerdude's permmion, if you have any questions about this system post it.

DO NOT HANDICAP HORSE # 4/5/6/7/8/9/OR HIGHER. GOOD LUCK AT THE RACES.

Jaime 1943------- 73.

Track is Turf Paradise located in Phoenix, AZ.

http://www.turfparadise.com/

Jaime- I love horse betting strategies like this. Keep 'em coming!

Variation on the theme is to look at the program and see the results for the meet to date. They will identify post positions and # of wins for each. Pick one of the top 3 and bet $5 or $10 or whatever across, sit back, enjoy your favorite cocktail and girl watch.

Golfer

Your right. I don't understand. Can you give an example?

It is documented that over time #2 pp is preferred. Actually #2 to #10 are the big winners. #1 PP is often avoided because of the fear of getting boxed in and railed. Horses coming from behind and coming 2nd or first in their last race plus the fame of the owner or trainer plus the fame of the jockey..there is a ton of stuff to consider when handicapping races. There were hand held computer devices that did it all for you. I'm sure there are available apps for the IPhone and there are clocker's picks. I used to play all the time when I lived in Connecticut at Sports Haven in New Haven and on the phone with OTB.

Goodmorning thnick,

Here we go again,everything that is documented is based on the LONG RUN and NOT ON THE SHORT RUN, you are at the TRACK or CASINO TODAY, HANDICAP FOR TODAY and not on what happened in the last 10 years.

If post postion number 1 is being played [ today ] over pp#2 or pp# 3 9to2 or less--- then play post postion 1 and not what has been doucumented in the past/ long run.

Do you agree with me on this or not?

Jaime 1943 ------73

Could work, but 75% of the time? Where did you get that figure?

From an actual honest to God database using races from January 2015 almost to date at TUP, TAM, MRN, GGX, CCX

45,475 entries (horses)
5404 races
16,293 entries total in post positions 1, 2, 3

2155 horses won for 13.2% win rate
2153 horses placed for 13.2% place rate
2292 horses showed for 14.1% show rate

Total of 6600 horses in the money out of 16,293 in post positions 1, 2, 3 = 40.5%

what are the average number of runners per race in the above data?

Ok don't give an example but if you find two positions that qualify would you bet them in a box exacta or if three meets expectation a box trifecta?

SteveO. I think you missed qualifying these 1,2,3 PP runners by odds because Jaime is odds specific. I see where he's coming from in that he's taking the pool preference and making that part of the equation for picking horses. You don't always pick the 1,2,3 PP if the odds aren't right. Right?

Greeting team taylor,

If the tie is between pp 1 and 2--- you bet the pp 1.

If the tie is between pp 1 and 3 --- you bet the pp 1.

if the tie is between pp 2 and 3--- you bet the pp 2

thrir you have all the pp's covered.

Jaime 1943-------73

Greeting thnick,

You are right thnick, if post postion's 1/2/3 don't qualifyi at odds of ,
9 to 2 or less today--- then you don't bet that race today, Just wait for the next race.this system has nothing to do with odds in the past--- only the odds of pp 1/2/3/ the last 5 minutes of the race Today.

Thnick, if you don't qualifyi a pp from pp 1/2/or3--- DO NOT HANDICAP POST POSTION 4 OR 5 OR 6 OR HIGHER. [ PLEASE ],

Jaime 1943------- 73

Thnick, with all due respect, Jaime did not say that post positions 1, 2 and 3 win 75% of the races when they go off at 9/2 or lower.

He said, "Here is a simple system to play the ponies with , in this system you are going to handicap only post postion 1/2/or 3. If you notice i said handicap POST POSTION 1 OR 2 OR 3, AND NOT HORSE NUMBER
1 OR 2 OR 3. The reason being that post postion 1 or 2 or 3 wins OR places 75 % of all races in the U.S.A."

So if all three positions are less than 9/2, or two of them are less than 9/2 you still only bet on one?

greetings T.T,
I think i all ready answered this question for you.

look at post---Dec 23 2016 7:pm.


Jaime 1943-------73.