Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Assuming you are playing with a positive expectation when you are the shooter AND that you don't bet on anyone's hands other than your own and other proven shooters - craps is hands-down the best game in the casino as far as I'm concerned. The problem lies in the fact that you are rarely the only shooter at the table, and unless you have a playing partner you hit the casino with regularly - you have no idea if the other player has a proven edge or not. It's just a guessing game. So, we'll have to assume that you're going to end up at the table with a bunch of randies and you're going to bet on their hands. What is the best way to play? Let's look at the odds.
Okay, admittedly this graphic is a little difficult to read, but it's been on the hard drive since Windows Millineum Edition days, so bear with me.

Given a choice between playing the right side versus the dark side on random rollers - it looks like playing the Don'ts is the way to go. And as you all know, the more odds you take or lay - the less the overall house edge on those bets. Personally, I am a fan of "easy math" when playing at the casinos. I'm also opposed to making large lay bets to win a lesser amount of money. For example, in a $10 100X odds game you'll never see me lay $1000 odds on the four or ten for a shot at winning $500. I know it's the smart way to play, but I just don't like the bankroll volatility that goes with it. So, I stick with anywhere from double odds to 3x4x5 odds on my Don't bets. Most frequently you'll see me laying double odds on the six and eight, three times odds on the five and nine and five times odds on the four and ten. Hey, it's just me. You play it your way. But let's say I average somewhere around three times odds. That would put me bucking an overall house edge of 0.341%. That's damn near nothing, my friends. With an edge that small and a little luck you should be able to win on simple variance if you stand at the table long enough. Of course, the problem with THAT is the fact that playing a single Don't Pass or Don't Come bet with odds and then watching those great rolls go by is a killer. In fact, it's boring as hell. But hey - if you want to be entertained go see a Cirque show. If you want to win - prepared to be bored.

Of course, some of us don't like laying odds at all. For years I'd play a single Don't Pass bet of $15 followed by a $10 Don't Come bet. That gave me $25 action and my goal was to win $25 on every player that touched the dice. If I ever got knocked off one of those wagers THEN I'd lay a sufficient amount on the remaining Don't bet to recoup my losses on the one knocked down. If I got knocked off BOTH bets then I was through for that shooter. Not a bad way to play. House edge without taking the free odds "get-back" bet into consideration - 1.36%. Still not bad.

So how does all of this stack up to Baccarat - which is touted as one of the best "50/50" games in the house? The player bet has a respectable 1.24 % house edge. The Banker bet has an even better 1.06% house edge. NEVER bet the tie - which is sort of like prop betting at craps. It carries a whopping 14.36 percent house edge.

The fun part of Baccarat is that you're continually betting and not waiting for extended periods of time for someone to seven out like at craps. Of course, with more decisions per hour you have more opportunities to lose. Smart players try to compensate for that by betting "with the cards," looking for streaks and trends and trying to capitalize on them. Some players have had luck with the "carnival game" side bets by counting cards at baccarat, but that edge is fleeting and from my point of view not worth pursuing.

Betting banker at a 1.06% disadvantage versus the Don'ts at craps at a 1.36% disadvantage is, for my money, essentially a toss up. But when you factor in the Free Odds bet craps will win out every time. Add to that a touch of skill with the dice and you have a formula for success.

But at Baccarat you can play Stinkin Drunk, eat free noodle soup, and get a chair, which really helps if your Stinking Drunk.

Thank goodness for Randies and the Don'ts! It sure seems to provide a great opportunity until the dice get back to you. I have all but abandon the Baccarat tables I played for years. Glad I developed the interest in the game of craps!

Not to misunderstand, I really wish the Randies would get a different perspective on the game and try to improve their chances with DI, but IMO, it just isn't happening on this side of the planet. Hey, some days I am no better at my tosses than they are but, over time now, I am beginning to see an advantage with influencing.

There are even better games in the casino, but they're damned hard to find. Full pay video poker, for example. Almost impossible. A decent hand-shuffled single or double deck blackjack game with good rules and penetration. Nope. Not likely to see that either. Oh well. Good thing we love craps.

As you suggest 0.34% may be beaten by other games but it's going to be tough to find.

WOV's blackjack survey shows some good games at under 0.30% but generally you will have to bet 50 if not 100 per hand. Got the bankroll for that? A couple of $25 dollar games may be found at TI and Bally's but a losing streak even at that level can soon mount up. Further more, let's say you are on the 25 table, have a good run, next thing you are betting 50, maybe even 100 a hand and here comes the big split/double - have you got the balls to put the necessary money down to make the correct play?

Full pay VP is all very well, though incredibly difficult to find. But even full pay Jacks or Better is still 99.54% return, so not as good as your passline/come with odds. Furthermore, a Royal Flush supplies about 2% of the return. People can go for years without getting one. Effectively without the Royal, JOB is a 97.5% game. Starts to look a bit less good.......

One other thing, both BJ and VP assume a good level of skill to max those percentages. A lot of players can probably knock off a few percentage points by not being proficient with correct strategy. Some are absolutely dire at at. We've all seen examples.

Leaving aside DI for now, any clown can belly up to the craps table and in the long run have an expectation of 0.34% given away on his money. He needs no skill or strategy other than sticking to those bets. Same with Baccarat. Stick to the player or banker and you know exactly what long term house edge you are up against.

I always liked baccarat better then blackjack, until I learned to pay attention to the deal sequences.

Works fine, if you're lucky... you don't Have to be betting hundreds tho but you can if you're willing to