Jaime's Don't Pass + $150 Across Hybrid Play
Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:07 am
On Dicenator's recent cruise ship trip report a question was asked about Jaime's Hybrid Don't Pass plus $150 Across Play and I thought the discussion deserved it's own thread (as opposed to hijacking the trip report thread - which Jaime did not want to do).
Here is the play as I understand it:
Bet $75 on the Don't Pass and wait for the point to be established.
Once the point is established Place bet $150 across including the point. For those of you who attended public schools in the last ten years - that sounds $25 on every box number. And therein lies the problem with using terms like $150 across. Your $150 across adds up to $24 on the six and eight, $25 on the five and nine, and BUY bets on the four and ten at $25 each plus $1 vig on each one - or $26 total assuming you pay the juice up front. I do NOT want anyone on this forum going to the casino and Placing the six or eight for $25. More on this later. *
At this point you take (hopefully) two or three hits on the Across bet. This could yield anywhere from $28 to $49 per hit. Let's assume an average of $33. That means on average you'll have collected around $66.
NOW you take down all of the place bets and REBET the point number for $75. At this point you'll either break even or win a small amount based on the odds of the number placed.
PROS:
Once you get beyond two hits you have minimal risk to the seven.
Once you take down the across bets you have no risk to the seven.
CONS:
Exposure of a $75 Don't Pass bet to the seven/eleven natural on the Come Out.
$75 Exposure on the $150 Across Place bets until they hit twice and come down.
WHAT'S MISSING?
Several things, but I don't want this to be a one-way conversation so I'll leave it open to your comments. How would you tweak this strategy to minimize downside risk WITHOUT giving all of your profit away with high-vig hedge bets? Also, you might want to think about CHARTING the trend before jumping in no this action. But I'll talk more on that later as well.
* Meanwhile, let's get back to the subject of mis-sized bets. Last week in Shreveport/Bossier I noticed several experienced players making what I'll refer to as "goofy" sized bets. The $25 six or eight is one of them. Perhaps these players are just used to standing straight out and playing the BIg 6/8 and the Field. Or perhaps they want the extra dollar paid at even money (you'll get paid correctly on $24 of that action but you'll get even money on the extra buck, resulting in a $29 payout) so they can toss a buck to the dealer as a toke. Beats me. Just seemed goofy. Of course, some players make odd-sized bets in order to facilitate press moves. Behold the $16 six or eight. Talk about confusing a dealer and bringing a game to a stop. Go ahead and toss out $32 and tell the dealer you want a $16 six and eight. You will get the duh look and you'll have to explain that "when it hits I want to take the payoff and go straight to $30." Ah. Now it makes sense. Only it doesn't make sense. You are increasing the house's vig on your action, which is never a good idea.
Okay, lecture over. Now it's time for your input on Jaime's $150 across hybrid play. Let's hear it.
Here is the play as I understand it:
Bet $75 on the Don't Pass and wait for the point to be established.
Once the point is established Place bet $150 across including the point. For those of you who attended public schools in the last ten years - that sounds $25 on every box number. And therein lies the problem with using terms like $150 across. Your $150 across adds up to $24 on the six and eight, $25 on the five and nine, and BUY bets on the four and ten at $25 each plus $1 vig on each one - or $26 total assuming you pay the juice up front. I do NOT want anyone on this forum going to the casino and Placing the six or eight for $25. More on this later. *
At this point you take (hopefully) two or three hits on the Across bet. This could yield anywhere from $28 to $49 per hit. Let's assume an average of $33. That means on average you'll have collected around $66.
NOW you take down all of the place bets and REBET the point number for $75. At this point you'll either break even or win a small amount based on the odds of the number placed.
PROS:
Once you get beyond two hits you have minimal risk to the seven.
Once you take down the across bets you have no risk to the seven.
CONS:
Exposure of a $75 Don't Pass bet to the seven/eleven natural on the Come Out.
$75 Exposure on the $150 Across Place bets until they hit twice and come down.
WHAT'S MISSING?
Several things, but I don't want this to be a one-way conversation so I'll leave it open to your comments. How would you tweak this strategy to minimize downside risk WITHOUT giving all of your profit away with high-vig hedge bets? Also, you might want to think about CHARTING the trend before jumping in no this action. But I'll talk more on that later as well.
* Meanwhile, let's get back to the subject of mis-sized bets. Last week in Shreveport/Bossier I noticed several experienced players making what I'll refer to as "goofy" sized bets. The $25 six or eight is one of them. Perhaps these players are just used to standing straight out and playing the BIg 6/8 and the Field. Or perhaps they want the extra dollar paid at even money (you'll get paid correctly on $24 of that action but you'll get even money on the extra buck, resulting in a $29 payout) so they can toss a buck to the dealer as a toke. Beats me. Just seemed goofy. Of course, some players make odd-sized bets in order to facilitate press moves. Behold the $16 six or eight. Talk about confusing a dealer and bringing a game to a stop. Go ahead and toss out $32 and tell the dealer you want a $16 six and eight. You will get the duh look and you'll have to explain that "when it hits I want to take the payoff and go straight to $30." Ah. Now it makes sense. Only it doesn't make sense. You are increasing the house's vig on your action, which is never a good idea.
Okay, lecture over. Now it's time for your input on Jaime's $150 across hybrid play. Let's hear it.