Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

We've had several threads in the past on regression betting strategies, so I thought I'd tag this one with the year so as to minimize confusion.

Let's start by talking about just what regression betting is. Essentially it's a money management technique that lets you reduce your sevens exposure after taking one or two hits on your action. Exactly how much exposure (and for how long) you have prior to the regression plays to your risk tolerance level in most cases. However, I think it also ties closely to your bankroll size. Let me approach it from that angle and give you some of my Texas logic on how it works.

Let's say you have a session bankroll of $600. You don't want to have more than 10% of your bankroll exposed to the seven on any given shooter. That gives you ten shots at $60 a shot at locking up a decent win. In most cases that's going to work out to about one trip around the table.

Now let me give you the simplest of regressions - a six and eight regression. Using $60 as your initial base bet you would place the six and eight for $30 each. The first hit on either the six or eight pays $35. You can now reduce the six and eight to an amount of your choice as long as it's $18 each or less. Let's start with $18 each. That gives you $36 action and you've collected $35 on that first hit - so you have $1 sevens exposure at that point. You're risking $1 to win $21 - or net $20 on the next hit on the six or eight. There are ten ways to roll the six/eight combo versus six ways to roll the seven. You are in a VERY powerful position.

Let's assume we get that second hit on the six or eight. It pays $21 - lock it up. You now have $20 profit off the table. But you still have $36 action - of which $35 is profit - on the table. If you take down that $35 you have a profit of $55 for the series. Do that on the next ten players and you'll have made over $500 on one trip around the table. Of course, some players will go PSO. Others will go one number and out. You won't get the hit on the six and eight every time on every shooter. In fact, you might not get a hit on the six or eight on ANY shooter the next trip around the table. After all - at the end of the day it's just gambling.

If you have a sevens risk tolerance of $60 and don't mind letting it ride longer you can certainly do that. However, I think a better way is to think in terms of your "average" sevens exposure. Let's say you had a sevens exposure of $40 half of the time and $100 the other half. I'm thinking you'd end up averaging around $60. With that thought in mind, here's another approach.

Let's Place the six and eight for $48 each. The first his pays $56. Now reduce your action to $18 each on the six and eight. Your average bet is now $30 each on the six and eight - or $60 total. However, a $48 hit on the six or eight pays $56. Now you can regress to $18 each, have a total of $36 in action and a profit of $20 locked up. So the larger the initial bet on any given number, the sooner you get into a larger profit position - if you get into a profit situation at all.

Let's talk about broadening your base bet. You can stay close to your $60 average bet number with $66 inside. That's $15 on the five and nine, and $18 on the six and eight. There was a time when this was my primary way to play a $5 game. $66 inside for one hit. Collect $21 then regress to $22 inside. You have $1 at risk to win $7 on the next toss. The problem with this (for me) is that I have a hard time getting excited about netting a $6 win off of an initial $66 bet. The way I improved on this situation was to take the five and nine down and go with just a $6 six and eight. That gave me a total win of $21 with only $12 exposure - a $9 guarantee. Plus it kept me in the game.

Spreading out further, I like $96 across. The regression play I use is one I call Stripping. No, I keep my clothes on. I start out with $96 across and take one winning hit. After collecting on that one hit I take down the four and ten, locking up that $30 with my win. On the next his on an inside number I lock up another $21 - then take down the five and nine. Now I have two winning hits in the rack and only the $18 six and eight remaining. At this point you can say "all down," or you can reduce the six and eight to $12 each or even $6 each. OR you can turn that $18 six and eight into $22 inside or $32 across. And this applies to any of the above plays. The point is that after that first hit you have a lot of options as to ways to go.

Regressions are a great money management tool that can slow down the losing when used properly. However, they are a two edged sword. They effectively "raise" the bottom when it comes to losses. You will lose less. However, they also chop off the tops when it comes to winning. You will also win less.

Find an amount you can comfortably regress from and to - then turn this into a habitual play that you only abandon when the table turns negative OR when you want to play the Don'ts.

Regression a la Come Bets.

Another way to auto-regress is to incorporate come bets into your play. Say your at a $5 table. Bet $96 across including the point. Make $5 come bets and take $10 odds. The goal is to do this on each box number. If the same box number hits, press your odds by one unit until at max. Once you have a majority of box numbers covered with come bets, stop making the come bets. When they pay off, covert back to a place bet on that box number. Now you can collect, press, collect...etc.

The risk is that you may seven out with the bases loaded. It's best to use this betting strategy if you are able to average 8-10 tosses or more per hand.

You can also modify this play to playing just the inside or outside numbers, or limit the number of come bets. You don't have to add come bet odds to the numbers you weren't planning to bet. There is great flexibility with this method. The great thing about come bets is that they follow the trend of whatever numbers you happen to be tossing at the time. It also allows you to regress without thinking or waiting "until the time is just right".

The one drawback to come bets is that you have to watch them like a hawk. I have had several instances of players picking up my come bet even though it was directly in front of me. Most times I was vigilant in letting them know that it was MY money. Other instances, the dealers place them behind the wrong place bet before odds are taken. Always watch your bets.

Ok first of all, 21$ is the first payoff that can let you make "moves", craps is a high risk high return game. You need to invest something to lock profits early or you will be running after your tail forever.

On a random shooter, you take only one point 6 or 8 (sometimes I go for a 9 but I usualy regret it)for 15(18), regress to 12-12 6&8 or invest the win in a 18$ Sister number.

On an average-good DI you go 18-18 6&8

On an excellent DI, invest won profits from half a table turn. ( if table is on a hot trend, and his toss is flawless.

18-18 goes to 30-30 for 3$, second hit drop 5$ and go 20$ on 5-9. Next hit collect. Next hit press inside. Next hit collect. Next two hits parlay bets, next hit down to 12$ each 6&8 or 18$ on one number. You just locked in close to 250-300$, start over.

Some great ideas in here on how to play things for various bankrolls and varying risk exposures.

Last night I learned a new system from a guy popping big money almost every night I went lately...

Downed it for my personnal betting level/BR.

I have 1k roll/4k bank, 500$ stop loss.

Here is my scaling of his system I modified.

85$ inside 5$ firebet. ( or 2-1-2 ats ) 25-30-30

5-6-8 play 3 numbers only.(use the 9 if point is one of them.

First hit pay 35, press 34 inside with it.
Second hit pay 49, down to 34 inside, work a press system there and lock 50$ profit for two hits.

When in profits collect 2nd hit and regress on the third.
For 99$ profit in 3 hits. He had it higher but was popping a grand an hour.

Second play, I used it last night, but I have seen this guy rape the game for a while.

The thing is you can transition into the first play then with house money, 32 inside press inside for 3$, press 6-8 to 30$ for 3$... you see the point?

$85 inside is a good play. I prefer $110 inside but what the heck. I appreciate the idea of having less exposure on the first couple of rolls. When you started out talking about $85 inside I fully expected to see you include the five and a Field bet. But then we'd be in full-on Iron Cross country. LOL. Good suggestions.

Heh field bet isn't the point, it's to try to get ahead and out, then progressive betting. It's a fun system, but like any, nothing is perfect

Well, got eaten alive today betting on a bad run of dice...dont use this on people who have been unlucky!

Dan: Are you skipping the PL? I could not tell from the post. Just me, sort of dense.

PL only on myself or a DI I know

GREETINGS DANF,

Has anybody ever told you that all system work , until the SEVEN TELLS YOU THEY don't.

Heavy,

I am cross quoting you from the buy 5 & 9 thread because it illustrates the reason I have changed my regression strategy.

"My experience in trying to buy the five and nine in Vegas has been has follows:

1. Stupid look
2. "Say what?"
3. "No, you Place the five and nine - you Buy the four and ten."

It just causes so much confusion that I don't even try anymore."

I really like regressing to 78-81 across after three hits betting 204 across.
...It just causes so much confusion that I don't even try anymore...
Confusion is a real show stopper in this game, so...
I just use 160 across (minus the point) take three or four hits and regress

When pressing back up, I go for the 204 level...ie 25, 35, 42.
In the past, I have pressed up from there in green chip increments, ie 50,50,60
But....
After reading one of your posts about accelerated pressing...
On my last trip, I put it into high gear...Wow, what a ride!
It seems that once a hand gets enough hits to push it back up, it continues for awhile and those presses pay well. I especially like collecting 105 and instructing the dealer to piggyback the red chip..
They really like that...

Memo

Scout,
I am cross posting Heavy once again
Remember, I used this after a regression, and I used a similar pressing sequence, but on all the numbers.
Basically, on this last trip, if I got past about ten hits, they tended to extend. It was real exciting, and I was collecting enough to make it worthwhile.

Heavy...4.21, press betting
"I think I mentioned on another thread that I'm doing a lot of single number presses these days. First I'll give you my press moves by the number. We'll start with $96 Across - $15 each on the outside numbers and $18 each on the six and eight.

Fours and/or Tens: $15 - $25 - $50 - $100 - $250 - $500 - $1000 - $2500 - $5000

Not that you're locking up cash on every hit even though you are pressing every hit. I only press every hit like this if my dominant press number is the four or ten. I press every other hit on inside numbers.

Five and/or Nine: $15 - $35 - take - $75 - take - $150 - take - $350 - take - $750 - take - $1500 - take - $3500 - take - $7500

Okay, that series takes 16 hits to get to the neighborhood of table max. You get there in half the time if you press every hit, but you don't lock up as much along the way with the inside numbers. Honestly, if I get to the $350 level and collect $500 for $10 I can be completely happy for as long as the hand stretches on.

Six and/or Eight: $18 - $42 - take - $90 - take - $180 - take - $420 - take - $900 - take - $1800 - take - $4200 - take - $9000

Now this is interesting because I've made it to $4200 a couple of times in recent years but never gotten a hit at that level. I think I could be relatively happy at $900 - collecting $1050 and giving the dealers a $50 toke on every hit at that level, but what the hell. Let's get greedy.

I think the smart way to approach this sort of press series is to take what the table gives you and run with it - so I'd press the FIRST number the shooter tosses after establishing the point. Everything else stays at the initial three unit level until they're "paid for." The other caveat I've added is simply removing bets that aren't "paying their rent" after a few tosses. Let's say the shooter is six numbers into a hand, has tossed two fours and I'm pressed up to $50 on it. He's also tossed two sixes, and eight , a ten, and a couple of trash numbers. I just might go ahead and take the five and nine down. They haven't rolled yet and are behind the curve when it comes to catching up and getting pressed. I'd rather have the money in my rack at that point. I can always put them back up if they start to show."

In this post, Heavy gives so many options. My hat is off to him for being so savy about what action is hitting, and reducing some numbers while pressing others....
I am a simple sort of guy. Once everything paid for, I ran them all up as far as I could while still collecting where ever he says 'take'.

Memo

Scout,

The trick for me is to have my bets paid for...Hence a regression. My remaining bets are paid for and I have some sort of a profit.
Then pull money off the table as you go. Yes, extended hands are great, but you can afford to push out those bets out if nothing is at risk. (original bets) If you get a short hand after that, nothing lost.

I find that on mid to shorter hands (12-15 rolls) I make about the same either way.
On short hands, it is the same either way since I have not made my regression.
On longer hands, it is 'Katie bar the door', the race is on.

If you do what Heavy suggested....at 105 pay out...piggyback the 5 dollar extra..Dealers really get into it with you.
MP used to call that a signature.

Memo

The proper mix of regression and progression betting will never be answered until proper programming is done. Without that it's all guess work. My biggest fear is that Wong was right all along: No pressing, zero, zip, zilch, nada. And proper programming includes results from actual casino results. How many crapsters are dedicated enough to do that?

I suspect Wong WAS right. Properly size your bets from the beginning and go for it. If you have definite proof of your advantage then you should play a Kelly sized bet and just stick with it. Of course, none of us are going to stand at the table and not bet for the next ten shooters while waiting for the dice. It's betting on the random rollers that ultimately gives the casinos their advantage over us. Combine that with stupid betting practices when we DO have the dice and there's the drain on your bankroll.

Do I think regression betting is right for MOST of us. Yeah, probably so. Going back to my post on another thread regarding the difference in when the seven is likely to show on a player who's random with an SRR of 6 and one who had an advantage with an SRR of 7 and you'll see what I mean. Toss out a bet, give the shooter a couple of shots at hitting it. If he does - regress. If he does not - take it down. Personally, the older I get the more I see myself playing the Don'ts on other players. It just is what it is.

One question I have about WC or WC pro, can you program with two different (or more) probabilities of dice outcomes? A set of probabilities for come out. A set of probabilities for the point cycle. A question, I know for Steen, but does anybody here do this?

Throwing this question in regression betting section....because it is a question on........regression betting.

My question is on a progressive regression for 6/8.

Option 1: $18 each with $36 at risk. First hit going to $30 after dropping $3. Second hit, pressing both to $48 after dropping $1. Third hit regressing back to $18 or taking down completely.

Option 2: (my favorite) $30 each, first hit drop $1 and re-coup your original $60. Only have $1 at risk after one 6 or 8 hit. Raise per risk comfort after.

From experience, which is more likely to pay in the long run. I can't see the negative at option 2, since the odds are in your favor to at least pulling even. In a long roll, Option 1 pays more, but more exposure.

What is everyone's thoughts on these two strategies. Thanks inside22 for sharing option 2 with me!

I really like the $30 regression play. Pretty powerful stuff.

One modification I've been considering with it is to drop the $3 on the first press after the initial regression on the dominant number if it hit twice. So rather than $30 6/8, first hit, drop $1 and regress to $18 each, next hit drop $3 and press both to $30 do $30 6/8, first hit drop $1 and regress, next hit drop $3 and power press dominant number to $42 if it hit twice, else press both to $30. That way you're in a $50 for $1 position on a dominant number with the same $4 at risk. If the next hit is on the non-dominant number you can either conservatively press to $30 and lock up $9 putting you $5 ahead or drop $3 and power press that number to $42, leaving you $7 at risk with both numbers now in a $50 for $1 position.