Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I read where the math says that…

There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd Pass/84% player will not, and
There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Pass/93% player will not, and
There is a 3% chance that a player will make a 4th Pass/97% player will not, in a row…

Then why on earth do people say to bet or increase your PL bet after a Pass?

Personally, I just hate to bet the PL anymore. IMHO, it just adds to the losses when the SO comes. Unless you’re a good repeater, seems to me this is a bad bet overall. Shouldn’t we really be betting the DP, at least after the second point is made.

Further…a lot of what I see, is a PSO after the first or second Pass. I am very careful about betting anything after a second Pass.

Thoughts?

Pass Line: 49.3% chance of winning
6 or 8: 45.4% chance of winning
5 or 9: 40% chance of winning
4 or 10: 33.3% chance of winning

So you say the bet with the best chance of winning is a bad bet?

Just re-posting some of what I had seen posted in other threads from the past here...care to elaborate or correct?

Hugh difference between what are the odds of making two passes vs OK, I made one pass, what are the odds on the second pass.

It has always seemed to me that, because of variance, the odds wouldn't change on a shooters ability to make more passes. Each throw is independent of the last one. He could make a thousand passes in a row. But I am not a math guy.

I think the coin flip is mixing apples and oranges. Odds before the fact, odds after the fact. After the fact of the first toss of course the second toss is the same odds. However, what are the odds of tossing 3,4,5 in a row? Before the fact, slim. As independent tosses, 50/50.
I think this is right: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2

I think maybe we can use the firebet odds since that will lose with any seven thrown. (Wizard of Odds)

0 0.593939
1 0.260750
2 0.101275
3 0.033434
4 0.008798
5 0.001640
6 0.00162

It's a mixed bag. Let's just talk in terms of tossing the seven after a point is established. The odds of tossing a seven on any throw is 1 in 6. Let's say the five is the point. Next you toss a nine. Then you roll the six and then you repeat the six. The ten rolls next, followed by another nine. Now we've established a point and rolled five times. This is roll six coming up. What are the odds you'll roll a seven now? The odds are still 1 in 6. Of course, there is what I refer to as a "rate of decay" on any hand. With every toss you are one roll closer to the seven. Of course, since we don't know when the seven will ultimately show it's tough to come up with specific "odds" based on the rate of decay. Why? Because you have no idea when the seven will show up. It might be on roll six, roll twenty six, or roll sixty six. Nevertheless, every time you toss the dice there's a one in six chance the roll will kick off a seven.

To answer the original question regarding increasing Pass Line bets after a Pass Line win . . . it's simply an attempt to capitalize on the "streak," assuming that the win was the beginning of one. I've told the story many times about the Hawaiian gentleman who won $10K on a session with me, Dice Coach, Stanford Wong, and a few others at the Fremont one afternoon. We were all betting Place Bets and pressing. He played the Pass Line only. His first bet was $100 on the PL with no odds. His second bet after a win was $200 with no odds. Next was $250 with no odds and he locked up a profit. Next was $500 with no odds. Next was $500 with $500 odds. Next was $500 with $1000 odds, which is where he stayed for the rest of the hand. Aggressive as all get-out, but it worked like a champ that day.

Yes. Rate of decay for a DI is a primary factor. It's all focus and any disturbance to that focus
can break the game..or just getting tired. So..let's say the casino decides to do the following:
Two passes, but on the same number! A different bet than the fire. The odds would probably be the odds on any of those
numbers..say 4 would be 2 to 1. Simply because it is all based on variance and any shooter might
just throw the same number twice..or ten times. Which is probably why they don't have that bet. When
you realize how many times you have to throw to hit the fire..it becomes enormous.

As Heavy said, it comes down to following the trend. It doesn't mean you won't get whacked. Is it the most mathematically sound way to play? No.

Grafstein [The Dice Doctor. (c)2011 Gamblers Book Club] talks about this being the way to qualify shooters.

• Grafstein writes, "“All Right bettors know the feeling of running into a string of missouts where one shooter after the other has failed to roll even a natural, let alone a pass line point." He later continues, "It takes a bit of patience waiting for a qualified shooter. At the same time, it is quite rewarding when you realize that every time a shooter sevens-out (or PSO's) and you are not betting on him, you are saving a piece of money...What we are doing is giving up the FIRST pass in hopes of hitting the balance of passes. I have found after more than 50 years as a crap game employee and as a crapshooter, it is to your advantage to accept what I tell you is good advice .. Wait for a qualified shooter."

I'd bet both. 6/1 should allow you a very nice income over time.

scout wrote:To catch everyone up to speed with that statement, Bankerdude80, what is "qualified" according to the Dice Doctor? Making the first pass?

Scout,

Grafstein defines a Qualified Shooter as,"...a shooter that rolls either a Natural (7/11) on the Come Out roll or makes his first Pass Line
Point of the hand."

Alas though, Irish is right. It is just an arbitrary excuse not to bet and save some money. I just like to quote Grafstein because he is purported to
be an expert on the game and it makes me look educated.

When it works, Grafstein is a genius. When it doesn't, shame on me.

Grafstein had been at the game as a back-alley game huckster, dealer, and as a player for 50 plus years. So he might have something worthwhile
to contribute even though it is anecdotal.

irish wrote:No one wants to venture in on whether they would take the casino up on a 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 payment on a "Make Two Passes" wager?

Here's a little table. I'll let someone else tackle the wager vs the probability of making the two points.
[tr] [th]Point Number[/th] [th]Probability of Establishing Point[/th] [th]Probability of Passing[/th] [th]Probability of Making the Point[/th] [/tr] [tr] [td]4[/td] [td].0833333 [/td] [td].3333333 [/td] [td].0277777 [/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]5[/td] [td].1111111 [/td] [td].4000000 [/td] [td].0444444 [/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]6[/td] [td].1388888 [/td] [td].4545454 [/td] [td].0631313 [/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]8[/td] [td].1388888[/td] [td].4545454[/td] [td].0631313[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]9[/td] [td].1111111[/td] [td].4000000[/td] [td].0444444[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]10[/td] [td].0833333[/td] [td].3333333[/td] [td].0277777[/td] [/tr] So I think the probability of Making any point is .2707068

I am by no means a Quant, so let me know if I erred. At least give me a gold (or even silver) star for effort.

Over all it's about 40%. So two points is (.4)squared. Three points is (.4) cubed, and so on.

No star, but you get a participation trophy!

How about the infamous "Four Rolls - No Seven" bet. The casino is making a fortune on that one.

House of Orange wrote:Over all it's about 40%. So two points is (.4)squared. Three points is (.4) cubed, and so on.

No star, but you get a participation trophy!

YAYYY!!! Geweldig!

Now doesn't that 40% figure include Come Out naturals (7/11) prior to establishing the first point? Or has that already been accounted for?

Oh, the humanity . . . somebody buy that Casino Math book I keep recommending. Come on. You can do it.

5/1 is the break even point. If you have an edge and stick to the bet on your own rolls you should make money.

6/1 allows you to make money on any old randies long term. It also gives you a specifically defined edge which you could use for precise Kelly staking of your bankroll if you were so inclined. It would be a very nice winner indeed over time.

Bankerdude80 wrote:

House of Orange wrote:Over all it's about 40%. So two points is (.4)squared. Three points is (.4) cubed, and so on.

No star, but you get a participation trophy!

YAYYY!!! Geweldig!

Now doesn't that 40% figure include Come Out naturals (7/11) prior to establishing the first point? Or has that already been accounted for?

Dutch spoken(written) on this board.....Geweldig!!!

Nope 40% roughly for every point set.

scout wrote:Hi HoO,
Using your calculations, then the first post by stratocasterman hold true.
.4 x .4 = .16
.4 x .4 x .4 = .064
.4 x .4 x.4 x .4 = .0256

First post
There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd Pass/84% player will not, and
There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Pass/93% player will not, and
There is a 3% chance that a player will make a 4th Pass/97% player will not, in a row…

Nope. AFTER making a pass there is a 40% he makes a second pass. There is a 16% chance of making two passes. Before making ANY pass.