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What are the odds?
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 12:19 am
by heavy
Okay, I'm not going to actually have you work through calculations to tell me what the odds are on the following bets. But I would like a few of you to take a shot at the following situation. Let's consider three possibilities:
1. You make 100 - $10 bets on the Pass Line
2. You make 100 - $10 bets on the Pass Line and take single odds
3. You make 100 - $20 bets on the Pass Line
So tell me. Which of the above plays best reduces your total loss in a random game?
Feel free to show your work.
Re: What are the odds?
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 3:24 am
by acpa
On #3 you will have bet $2,000 and will have an expected loss of $28.20. (20*100)*.0141.
On #1 the numbers will be half of that (10*100)*.0141.
On #2 you will have bet $1,667 ((100*.667)*20)+((100*.333) will have an expected loss of $14.10, (10*100)*.0141.
Only two thirds of the bets will go to a point and have single odds.
So your dollar loss of the amount bet would be lower in 1and 2 than in 3., but your percentage of loss would be lower in 2 than in either 1 or 3.
Noah
Re: What are the odds?
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 9:52 am
by heavy
Hmmm. Interesting answer. Sort of a round-about way of getting there. Let me ask you this. Does it really matter that only two-thirds of the bets will go to a point and have single odds? 8 out of 36 come out tosses will be naturals. 4 out of 36 will be crappers. There's your one-third that do not set a point. But isn't that fact "built-in" to the 1.41% house advantage on the line bet. And here's the real heart of this question. What is the house edge on the free odds bet? I'm not saying ACPA's answer is wrong . . . I'd just like you guys to ponder this a bit and tell me what YOU think - and WHY.