Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I was looking at different betting scenarios on how to get to "profit territory" as fast as possible. I use the P6 (3/6,3/6) dice-set perm because I tend to roll quite often a good chunk of 6's and 8's, as well as the other box numbers.

Even though this dice-set perm is a "Strong Sevens Set", when one die rolls Off-Axis, each Axial Die-Face contains one 6 (1 in 4) and one 8 (1 in 4), which can give you four 6's and four 8's on the four axial faces, as well as one Primary Hit Hard 6 and one Primary Hit Hard 8, for a total of five 6's and five 8's. I use this dice-set mutation because of my high tendency to roll one die Off-Axis.

I looked at the following scenarios:

SCENARIO # 1
$18 each 6 & 8 (4,5,9,or 10 are the points w/ $5 base bet & double odds)

- 51 (money at risk)
- 3 (1st. Hit pays $21, drop $3 to make the 6 & 8 look like $30)

- 54
+ 35 (2nd. Hit)

- 19
+35 (3rd. Hit)

+ 16 (Profit Territory)


SCENARIO # 2
$24 each 6 & 8 (4,5, 9, or 10 are the points w/ $5 base bet & double odds)

- 61 (money at risk)
+ 28 (1st. Hit pays $28, make the 6 & 8 look like $30)

- 35
+35 (2nd. Hit)

+ 0 (Even)
+ 35 (3rd. Hit)

+ 35 (Profit Territory)


SCENARIO # 3
$30 each 6 & 8 (4,5,9,or 10 are the points w/ $5 base bet & double odds)

- 75 (money at risk)
+ 35 (1st. Hit)

- 40
+35 (2nd. Hit)

- 5
+35 (3rd. Hit)

+ 30 (Profit Territory)


SCENARIO # 4
$24 Six, $20 Nine (8 is the point w/ $5 base bet & double odds)

- 59 (money at risk)
+28 (1st. Hit pays $28 on either the Six or Nine)

- 31 (make the 6 & 9 look like $30 and $25, respectively)
+35 (2nd. Hit on either the 6 or 9)

+ 4 (Profit Territory)


SCENARIO # 5
$24 Eight, $25 Five (6 is the point w/$5 base bet & double odds)

-64 (money at risk)
+35 (1st. Hit on the 5 pays $35)

- 29 (make the 8 look like $30)
+35 (2nd. Hit on either 8 or the 9)

+ 6 (Profit Territory)

If the 1st. Hit was the 8, then you would have:
-64 (money at risk)
+28 (1st. Hit on the 8 pays $28)

- 36 (make the 8 look like $28)
+35 (2nd. Hit on either the 8 or 9)

-1
+35 (3rd. Hit on either the 8 or 9)

+34 (Profit Territory)



SCENARIOS # 4 and # 5 take you faster to Profit Territory with # 2 landing you "Even" after the 2nd. Hit.

I was with the understanding that if started with more money on the 6 or 8, that would put you on the profit side sooner, which is not the case if you compare SCENARIO # 2 with # 3.

I was also comparing SCENARIO # 1 with # 3 and you would be risking $24 more just to make $14 profit.

It's interesting because you would think that risking more money is a guarantee to put you faster in profit territory.

My analysis above is not too good. I might have made some mistakes.

Anyhow, any feedback is appreciated.


Respectfully,
Nune

Why not try this assuming you are the shooter . . .

$5 Pass Line

$24 six and eight

Establish point. No odds until you are in a profit position.

Hit one on the six or eight pays $28. Regress to $12 each on the six and eight. You now have $2 at risk on the table. If you want to take SINGLE odds on the Pass Line bet now drop $5 or $6 back there, depending on the point. You'll have $7 or $8 at risk to win either $14 off the place bets or $14 - $17 on the Line and odds, again depending on the point.

If your hits are on the six or eight then go up ONE $6 unit on every hit. If the hand gets long in the tooth you can toss an additional $5 on your odds every other hit on the six or eight until you max out odds.

Great pointers, Heavy. I've been trying to come up with a betting strategy where I can see my BR accelerate as fast as possible. I'm not a believer in regressing my bets, for I feel more often than less I miss out on profiting when I get on a hot roll. I normally keep my place bets at 5 units and let them ride. After my bets are payed for, then I begin press every other hit.

Respectfully,
Nune

Well, if you have the tolerance for an $18 six and eight plus your line bet and odds then just power press your way up.

$18 six and eight - hit pays $21 - drop $3 and press to $30 each

$30 six and eight - hit pays $35 - drop $1 and press to $48 each

$48 six and eight - hit pays $56 - drop $4 and press to $78 each

$78 six and eight - hit pays $91 - press to $120 each

$120 six and eight - hit pays $140 - decisions decisions decisions. It only took five sixes and eights to get here. I've had hands where I've tossed over 20 sixes alone. But personally, I'd rather take that single regression and not have to worry about making five hits in a row.

I had the dice 3 times today but 2 hands were out of position and only bet the 6 and 8 for $12. On the 3rd hand I was in my favorite spot at SL1. I went and played $44 inside on a $10 table. I Rolled the 11 on the come-out and took 4 hits and then down on all my bets. After I came down on all my bets, I rolled 2 more inside numbers and then the 7 showed up. If I would have left my inside numbers up there, I would have made $52 on that hand for those 6 hits. By taking them down after 4 hits I was able to make $4 more for a total of $56 on that hand and then went and had the comped Saturday buffet dinner.

$5Bill

There you go. And I should probably point out that "take me down" is the ultimate regression.

Thanks Maddog for your excellent insight strategic betting pointers. I just realized that the whole focus of my betting scenarios was to reach a "break-even point" as MP pointed to me at the Dice Institute Message Board and Forum, undermining the significance of sustainable long-term profit and steady bankroll growth.

My betting approach is one where I want to build my bets (5,6, 8 & 9) at the $25 and $30 and letting them ride, thus putting myself in a position where I can begin built my bankroll fast when I get on a good roll. Please note that I only bet three numbers, which includes my PL Point with double odds. My primary bets are the 6 and 8. If one of them is the point, I surround it with the 5 or the 9. I'm not a believer of regressing my bets when I bulid them up to five or six units.

I look at my bets as an investment, fully cognizant of the "seven" appearing on any roll and wiping out all my money. It's a risk that I'm willing to take to make money. Needless to say, you definitely need a solid BR. My buy-in that I plan to use with my strategy is a minimum of $500.

I'm of the opinion that in order to reach a level of sustainable bankroll growth, your bets have to be at the 5 or 6 unit level, let them ride and press thereafter every other hit. That's just my opinion.

Respectfully,
Nune

I agree with Irish. Based on your session buy-in of $500 I would never consider spreading more than $50 on the table initially. That gives you ten shots at catching a hand and locking up some profit. I might suggest something akin to Mitch's old "Super Eight" play, where he puts his place action up for eight tosses, then takes down his place bets and focuses on bringing back the point. Let's say you're playing a $5 game and want to start out with 2X odds. That's $15 of the $50 you can risk per hand. You have $35 left to play. Let's fudge a bit and place the six and eight for $18 each. That gives you $51 action unless the six or eight is the point. If you want to press quickly then drop $3 on the first six and eight hit and go to $30 each. On the second hit lock up $35. You now have $16 at risk and $75 on the table. Next hit on the six or eight pays $35. If you want to cover the rest of the numbers then drop $15 and place the remaining outside numbers. Lock up $20. Now you have a $4 profit and $90 on the table. Press however you want from there. My choice would be to press the six and eight to $42 each on the next hit and remain at that level for awhile - I just happen to like that "fifty for one" payoff on the six and eight. If you want to press at some point in there press all of your outside action up $5. Then, at some point, you'd want to lock up some of that profit that's on the table and press up your free odds bet. Anyway, something for you to think about. Good luck with it.

Heavy and Irishsetter,

You guys are absolutley right. I'm exposing myself to extremely high volatility early in my hand without knowing how my toss is going to evolve. Irish also brings an extremely important point, which is my lack of acclimation of that particular table due to my long absence of play in a regular casino table. There are just too many variables that come into play to begin with an aggressive-style betting approach. Thanks for your invaluable advice that comes solely from many years of playing experience. I'm going to study some regression type of plays out there.


Respectfully,
Nune

SCENARIO # 1

$18 each 6 & 8 (4,5,9,or 10 are the points w/ $5 base bet & double odds)

- 51 (Initial money at risk)
- 3 (1st. Hit pays $21, drop $3 to make the 6 & 8 look like $30)

- 33 (Actual money at risk after 1st. Hit, $51-$18)
+ 35 (2nd. Hit)

+2 (Profit Territory)

I have been using Scenario # 1 with good success. Three hits puts me on the positive (+16) side. What I'm thinking of doing is have my bets WOTCO, and take advantage of the high probability of the 6 or 8 showing intially (10 out 36).

Respectfully,
Nune

Actually, if I have the 6 and 8 WOTCO, the following scenario would hold:

$18 each 6 & 8 plus $5 PL base bet

-36 (Initial money at risk)
+21 (1st. Hit pays $21, drop $3 and make the 6 & 8 look like $30)

- 23 (Actual money at risk after 1st. Hit, $41-$18)
+35 (2nd. Hit)

+12 (Profit Territory)

If I were to add Double Odds after my 1st. Hit, I would have a $2 profit.

Respectfully,
Nune

Good job of thinking it through, Nune. You're on the right track.

One more thing I will mention regarding the six and eight place bets. One of the most effective uses of the place bet on the six and eight is as a hedge bet when you are playing the DP or DC and the point travels to the six and eight. I know most of you have seen players in this situation wave the bet off or tell the dealer "no action on the six or eight" when the dice travel to one of those points. The house will let you take down a DP or DC bet because once it is established you have an advantage over the house. But many players don't think 6-5 is a sufficient advantage and take those bets down. A better option is to place bet the six or eight when you have one of those numbers established on the Don'ts. Let's look at a couple of examples.

A few years ago (actually more than a few - probably around 10 years ago) I was playing the tub game they used to have at Wildfire Casino in Vegas. Another player bought in for $500 - all black - and began playing $100 DP and DC bets. The six was established as the point and he said "no action." I said "Don't do that - I'll give you the $100 and buy the bet from you." He looked at me suspiciously and said "no thanks." They returned his bet to him and I explained why he should have left it up. If you have $100 on the DP and place the point of six for $90 you cannot lose. If the seven shows you lose the $90 place bet but win the $100 DP for a net $10 win. If the player makes the six he's paid $105 for his $90 place bet and loses the $100 DP for a net win of $5.

If you're playing at the $20 level and establish the six or eight as your point you can place the point for $18 and guarantee a win.

If you are playing at the $25 level you can place the point for $24 and guarantee a win.

At the $50 level you can place the point for $48 and guarantee a win.

This type of play is a result of out-of-the-box thinking. I highly recommend it.

Heavy,

Now you are talking about some interesting stuff that I never see discussed. I guess it is obvious to a lot of people..Not me.
It kinda falls in line with laying against fifth or sixth fire bet. Figuring odds on lay bets quickly. (As the dealers are taught)

Good thread topics and/or 'new' discussions at your seminars..

Just me thinking..
(That can be a dangerous thing)

Memo

I have had times when I was able to buy from the bettor a bet he wanted to take off the don't and then placed the number so I was a sure winner, only question was how much.

noah

I was cursed with an "outside the box brain" Memo. I have difficulty thinking in straight lines. I'm always trying to find a shortcut. I would have made a terrible dentist. The second time a customer came in for a "fix" on the same tooth I'd be going straight to the implants.

About Working those 6's and 8's on the Come-out, Nune said...

I have been using Scenario # 1 with good success. Three hits puts me on the positive (+16) side. What I'm thinking of doing is have my bets WOTCO, and take advantage of the high probability of the 6 or 8 showing intially (10 out 36).

In the past I've had my place bets "Working On The Come-out," when I was the shooter. But I finally came to realize that when I would toss a 7 on the come-out the dealer would say, "You wanna go back up again?" and I would always say, "yes," and toss in more chips to replace them. Well that was costing me money and I would find myself in a deep hole. So I decided NOT to have my place bets Working on the Come-out anymore.

Take for instance my play today. I had the dice twice. On the first hand, I went $44 inside after I set the point but was only able to get one hit before I rolled the seven. On the next hand when the dice got back around to me, I tossed three 7's in a row on the come-out. Now if I had had my place bets working you can see that I would have been in the dumper. But by not working, I was able to collect $30 on those come-out 7's from my $10 pass line bet. I was ahead before I even put up my place bets. By playing this way I can only lose my $44 inside place bets once instead of 3x's in that one hand. After I set the point, I went $44 inside for 4 hits and then took everything down. The hand went well making several points and after that hand was over, I walked away with $147+ in my pocket.


$5Bill

5Bill,

in effect you were "Buying" those come bets you put back up, and buy bets are bad bets unless you can have high odds on them. don't remember what the break point is for the odds.

Noah

Bill,

A smart approach to the game and a great sense of how a hand can evolve. That only comes from a lot exerience. You are absolutley right, I tried using the WOTCO and haven't had too much succes, finding myself early in a hole. I don't what it is, but does "sevens" have a tendency to show on the comeout roll quite often. So, I'm going to stick to the "all 7s" dice-set perm on the comeout and take advantage of the 8 to 4 edge one has.

Respectfully,
Nune