Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

This sub-board is a spin-off from a separate Don't players forum I ran for many years - Heavy's Wrong Way Craps. The forum was taken down in the ProBoards meltdown a few years back, and rather than run a separate forum I opted to just but in a sub-board for wrong way players on this board.

It's tough for a wrong way forum to garner a lot of support among dice influencers - which I find rather sad. We often talk about how to bet when "Randy" has the dice, and usually talk shifts toward betting the Don'ts. But we get scared off by the Come Out roll and immediately start trying to come up with hedges for the Don't Pass wager or ways to get around it. Meanwhile, the simplest of all ways to get around it is staring you right in the face. It's Laying the Point.

Now, let's think about playing the right side for a minute. There are a ton of "indicators" many players swear by - incidents that assure the player's hand is coming to an end. We call them "Energy Disrupting Events," or EDE's. Looking at EDE's from a dark sider's point of view, they are the key to the bank. Whenever an EDE takes place - Lay the point.

I should not have to lay out all of the examples of EDE's, but I'll hit on a few.

1. New money on the table - a player buys in in the middle of a hand and all action stops while the box counts out the money and the player gets his chips.

2. Dice fly off the table - all action stops while the box retrieves and inspects the errant die if the shooter requests "same dice." Or the bowl is dumped and the shooter has to pick to more dice to toss.

3. Shooter gets "tapped" - for example, his wife or girlfriend walks up to the table and asks for another $100 for the slots - or the cocktail server walks up to the table and asks him if he wants a drink.

Okay, that's a start. Bypass the Come Out and wait for an opportunity to Lay the Point. My next post will give you a couple of progressions to work with and some basic rules of play.

I always interpreted EDE's as "Energy Draining Events". I guess "disrupting" actually describes what is happening, while "draining" describes what we are feeling. All semantics anyway. Great start to the thread.

For me, it has been a long road before I finally embraced the dark side. Up until recently I was strictly a "rightside/(lightside?)" player. Heavy's posts on transitioning at a table have helped me. Also, a lot of the posts on this forum by Dylanfreak, SIA, DN8er, Dark Side, and others have really opened my eyes to a whole new world of craps play. I've always hated conflict and I always felt bad to play darkside while other players were playing rightside. I'd feel guilty. A few times I tried, players would glare at me and sometimes cuss me out. Or, I'd be playing rightside and I would observe other rightside players who would be cussing out the darkside players. I've gotten to the point now where I don't give a hoot what others think and I've now gravitated to the darkside more often. Having a better understanding on the math of the game makes you realize that it can be advantageous to play the darkside.

Okay, first off I'm going to give you a couple of way to play if you're going to Lay against the point. It can get a little tricky because the Lay amounts differ depending on what the point is - and if you're playing a negative progression - which is the assumption on these plays - the amount of the Lay bets can get right up there. Let's start with a simple up as you lose progression. I'm going to assume all bets are geared initially to win $20.

Let's say the point is Five. You wait until a negative indicator, then Lay the Five for $31. I'd leave the bet up for a few rolls, but if the hand continues then I'd bring it down and wait for another indicator. If the shooter sevens out, as expected, then you lock up your bet and the win and you are net $19 ahead. Rinse and repeat. But if the shooter makes the Five then you proceed to the second level of the progression - ON THE NEXT SHOOTER. You only let a shooter beat you ONE time on a hand.

The next shooter gets the dice and sets the eight as the point. You're down $31 from the previous shooter. In this example we'll jump out there and have the Ten as the point. To win $30 you're going to have to Lay $61 or $62, depending on the breakage at the casino you're playing. Personally, I'd go with a $72 Lay to win $35, resulting in a whopping $4 win for the series if you completed the win. If you lose the bet and the shooter makes that Ten, which can happen, then you'll be down $103 for your series. That means to break out you'll need to lay sufficient to win $120 on the next point.

Again, you'll wait for the next shooter if the last one beat you. Then wait for a point to be established and wait longer for a negative indicator. Let's assume the point is now Eight. To win $120 you'd have to Lay $150. Once again, you do so and wait for a decision. For the sake of this example we'll assume this guy sevens out without repeating the eight and you win $120, putting you a ginormous $17 ahead for the series. Then you start the series all over with a Lay bet on the next shooter's point sufficient to win $20.

My personal thoughts on this - it's a little risky for my blood because, as with any martingale type wager - you end up betting larger and larger amounts for smaller and smaller wins. On the up side - although mathematically the odds don't necessarily favor you - the vast majority of times you're going to win with this play. Just employ logical loss limits - invoke the "lose three in a row and it's time to go" rule - and grind out a profit.

H
That is well presented..
.
What is your stance on "Break Points when the SEVEN may likely appear ?
Some use a rule of thumb that few shooters complete a third Pass Line Point before the terminal seven shows.
.
Some place in the arrives may show reference or two defining " Break Points when THE SEVEN is likely to show .
.
The BREAK POINT THEORISTS go on about discount the actual number of Pass Line numbers won
and
even established.........

The SEVEN HAS A GREATER PROPENSITY to show at say COME OUT ( which follows the past hand Seven Out)
Then typically say perhaps the THIRD TOSS ( P S O ? ),THE EIGHTH TOSS ,!2Th TOSS and whatever carried out to someplace..
.
Theoretically could this concept hold a little water
OR
is it just another CONFORMATION BIAS THINGY ?
>>>>>
At times some Trip Report Roll Charting seems to give credence to it
YET AT OTHER TIMES
not even on the same casino floor.......

just me pondering

w c

Years ago, when Roadrunner and I pondered such things, he inputted something like 85,000 rolls that he'd personally tracked in sessions he'd paid over the years into a spread sheet to analyze such things. Bear in mind that RR was an IT kind of guy and loved playing with numbers. And yes, he did come up with some break points where the seven was more likely to show according to his tracking. I used to have a list out to around 50 or so rolls but can't lay my hands up on it at the moment. At one time I incorporated it into a charting sheet I build, but later I adapted it to simply include a reminder to consider regressing or coming down every sixth roll. Back to what I do remember, it seems like the early on break points he came up with were around rolls 3, 6, 13, 17, 23, 27, 31 . . . and I forget where they went after that.

Another way to play the Don'ts is to simply seek out a Fire Bet game OR ATS game and go with the house. Whenever the shooter completes his third Fire Bet number start laying against the subsequent points. Or whenever a shooter makes something like seven of the numbers needed to complete the ATS pick a number to Lay Against. Hey, it's a way to play.

heavy wrote:Years ago, when Roadrunner and I pondered such things, he inputted something like 85,000 rolls that he'd personally tracked in sessions he'd paid over the years into a spread sheet to analyze such things. Bear in mind that RR was an IT kind of guy and loved playing with numbers. And yes, he did come up with some break points where the seven was more likely to show according to his tracking. I used to have a list out to around 50 or so rolls but can't lay my hands up on it at the moment. At one time I incorporated it into a charting sheet I build, but later I adapted it to simply include a reminder to consider regressing or coming down every sixth roll. Back to what I do remember, it seems like the early on break points he came up with were around rolls 3, 6, 13, 17, 23, 27, 31 . . . and I forget where they went after that.

Another way to play the Don'ts is to simply seek out a Fire Bet game OR ATS game and go with the house. Whenever the shooter completes his third Fire Bet number start laying against the subsequent points. Or whenever a shooter makes something like seven of the numbers needed to complete the ATS pick a number to Lay Against. Hey, it's a way to play.

R R was a very nice person.........
,,,,,,,,,,He is missed by even those who only had a few short passing meetings.....

I was considering tracking the hands showing a C/O 7 first roll after the shooter repeated the P/L point...
Might be profitable to wager a BIG RED or 3-way SEVENS HOP should a Come Out 7 follow the P/L win
and the next roll ( COME OUT ROLL ) PREDOMINATELY coincided with one of the Break Points...

I'll hold off on having Tattooed 3, 6, 13, 17, 23, 27, 31 inside my non dominate tossing arm
. . . until I gather more information base

The "Break Point(s) might offer up more or less validity than any other old saw ( RULE of THUMB ) " urban myths "
Could be said to have about the same staying power as the topping on a freshly delivered pizza.....
However factor the concept pops up from time to time....and we like to tinker ...........

Talking about synchronicity :
Think I'll pop the top on a cool one and dig into the just delivered " EXTRAVAGANZA "

w c

irish wrote: When I play the dark side, I play in it's purest form. A single DP or DC. Odds? Usually not, unless I'm on a dark side roll.

Playing machines I'll play the DP. On a live game if it's the first time I've seen a shooter I'll make a DC the first go around so I can see if they are trying to toss naturals on the comeout AND look like they have some ability to do so. if it's an obvious Randie I'll make a DP and 2 DC bets with some odds. I buck the trend and actually take less odds on the 4 and 10, more odds on the 6 and 8. It takes too long to over come a bad spell of getting knocked off the 4 and 10 if you're taking odds. Get knocked off the 4 and/or 10 with odds or laying, 3 times and you have to win 6 bets to recoup. I usually find something else to do when that happens.


I have a local friend I shoot with when we happen to run into each other and on him I make a pass line bet and a DC with odds. He's good at making passes and tossing sevens on the comeout. He's also good at trying too hard and making a bad toss as a result when there's a lot of money on the table, as in a $100 bet in his case. Because of that I don't bet the way I normally do on him. If I decide to stay on the do side of the dice, I cap my bets at $50.00.

wild child wrote:Some use a rule of thumb that few shooters complete a third Pass Line Point before the terminal seven shows

On anyone other than myself, a DP or Lay the Point works for me after a shooter makes two PL points but, I don't consider that to be an EDE.

One of my casino hop partners,from my Salad Years at THE DICE EXPERIENCE , bragged that she was doing so well during the late 1990's and into the early 2000's
that she was seriously considering quitting her Day Job as a Registered Nurse
, and only Trading Financials FULL Time.....
.
She often said she just could not bring herself to wager the Dark Side of the Craps Game...........

During one of the downdrafts or Bubble Pops in the Financials ,she started boasting her prowess with
buying/selling Puts ,shorting specific stocks and Selling Covered Calls on positions she was HOLDING........
.
She blushed when I asked if she could explain "Going Short " Vs Wagering on the DO Not Side of a Dice Game .

w c

The Luckiest Man Alive used to trade financials on a daily basis. He'd get up every morning, decide which way he though the market was going to go and then lay out the (serious) money. Judging from his average bet size - he did okay.

My companion consulted Vector Vest , CNN Financials
and whatever other discount brokerage online she was subscribed to keep track of the stuff.......
The companion elected to endure the Day Job ( which she said stood for Just Over Broke )
.
Time passed and we parted Y's ....The ex companion may still be somewhat invested....

w c

One can always use $5 Bill's 8 roll method. If I judge the table to be dark side ready (7 closing within 5 rolls) I'll go DC for $15, get a number and lay odds. One bet. But if the shooter starts repeating inside numbers I'll pull the odds bet, use it as part of a place on the number and go rightside making place bets. Although I haven't done it much, it seems there's come bet opportunity on the switch over.

I was on a table with another player and they were playing the DP and laying the odds for a large amount, but the thing is they were also making multiple place bets. I tried asking the player about it, but they just gave some cryptic answer about it being the only edge the house gave you(said this only worked since it was 100x odds). If a place bet hit, he was changing the amounts on his bets, like his lay. I still couldn't work it out though, if the shooter made the point, he'd lose the DP and the lay. I don't recall if they stayed up. Anyways just wondering if anyone has seen or knows of this system. This guy was making money from what I saw of him.

In relation to Darkside play, or even Do-side play, I think we need to read the table. I mention this in relation to the Darksider's event we had one year. The table we were on actually was not bad, I'd say the table was actually positive and we were trying to force it to be negative. It was little humorous because a few of us just could not 7-out(intentionally), someone made like 3 points to the fire if I recall. A couple of us rode it out to the bitter end. It's like this with do-sided play, the toss might look great, the dice feel good, but for whatever reason, the table just isn't giving it up right now. Generally I'll either switch to the dark side or move on to find another table, or circle back at some point to check on the conditions later on.

Just some thoughts

Pappy

I use a dark side play on the DP as its own individual game. And then run a second parallel game with the place bets. Get the best of both worlds.

crapsjourney wrote:I use a dark side play on the DP as its own individual game. And then run a second parallel game with the place bets. Get the best of both worlds.

Do you leave the place bets up after the first hit or ride them until the 7 shows?

Personally mixing DP & PL bets do not work for me.

I've become real comfortable playing the DC, taking the CO out of the equation. I place a single bet, I don't lay odds, if the table goes cold I'll go up to 3 DC's. Exception, if I land on a trend number, I'll place another bet, when the new number lands I'll pull the trend number down. It seems to work well for me. I consider the trend number an energy disturbing event.

Is a PSO an energy disturbing event? No indicator its coming.... I like to watch for bankroll draining events - esp on come-out rolls - nothing drains the buy-in faster than a 7-11 knocking down two DPs. 8 out of 36, or 1 out of 4.5; even allowing for the 2-1 & 1-1, those add up; and need to be planned for. While I might switch to a DC; I also start thinking about switching tables. Also, stop pulling down those DCs that travel to the six or eight - place the number instead, then bet another DC
Just a few thoughts, D.N8r