Rappin' Captain's Exponential Betting

[heavy]

Someone mentioned our old pal Sid, the late "Rappin' Captain" of craps, on another thread recently. That set me to thinking about the times I'd seen him in Tunica and Biloxi - often on a reserved table with a crew of regulars he played with - and toked very well when they caught hands. The Rappin' Captain (no relation to Scoblete's pseudo-fictitious Captain) was a proponent of what he called Exponential Betting. It's basically a Pass/Come strategy designed to be played on 20X - 100X odds games - with a Free Odds progressive betting schedule attached. For those of you who come late to the forum - here's a recap of the strategy, more or less in Sid's own words (edited for readability). Note that the Rappin' Captain played at the Green Chip level, so a base Pass Line with Odds bet on the even numbers would be $25 Pass Line plus $125 odds. On Odd Numbers the Free Odds bet would be at $120.

Here are the basic rules to follow when playing a Free Odds Exponential Betting Strategy.

Rule #1. Make a Pass Line or Come bet on every roll of the dice. This bet gives up one of the lowest house edges. If you do not make this bet you are not getting paid on the 7 or 11. These natural wins - even on a loss - reduce the house edge to 1.4%.

Rule # 2. Do NOT take odds until the second number has been established. By doing this you are taking advantage of the 2/3 disadvantage the player has on the first roll of the dice. A second roll seven would result in a draw or push in this case. By placing any other bets before this you are heading for ruin much faster and giving up a much higher house edge.

Rule # 3. When the second number has been established take 5 times odds on BOTH of the numbers you have established and every number rolled after that.

Rule #4. After each repeater press your bet by no more than 20% to 25% of the previous bet. For example - $25 odds would be pressed to $30. This way you are taking moneys off the table and putting it in your rack.

Rule #5. Always work with four or more established numbers. It takes at least two established numbers to overcome the six ways to make a 7. Remember, there are 6 ways to make a 7 for a loss. You might establish the four and nine as Come bet points on your second and third tosses. There are four ways to make a nine and three ways to make a four, for a total of 7 ways to win. So you have 7 ways to win versus 6 ways to lose. That sounds good, but typically you will need three to four repeaters to have a winning game. In a worst case scenario, you may have all six box numbers established as points without a repeater. You have huge exposure at this point. However, you'll have 24 ways to win versus 6 ways to lose, for a 4 to 1 win ratio. Just remember that one 7 wipes out the other six numbers.

Betting Progression: Here is how the betting should go. After the first repeater, press the repeating number, and only the repeating number, to 6 times odds. After the second repeater of the same number, and only the repeating number, press to 8 times odds. After the third repeater of the same number, and only the repeating number, press to 11 times odds. After the forth repeater of the same number, and only the repeating number, press to 15 times odds. After the fifth repeater of the same number, and only the repeating number, press to 20 times odds. Remain at 20 times odds until the hand ends.

As you can see for example, on the 6 and 8 worse case scenario, you will get paid on the first hit, if starting with a $25 pass or come bet with 5 times odds, $150 with $25 flat or $175 and pressing it by only $25 or going to 6 times odds you are breaking even if you don't hit a second time. But if you hit a second time you get paid $205 and pressing $50 or to 8 times odds and you racking $155. If you hit a third time you get paid $265 and pressing $75 or to 11 times odds and you racking another $190 for a total of $345. If you hit a forth time you get paid $355 and pressing $100 or to 15 times odds and you racking another $255 for a total of $600. You are just about doubling your payoff every time you have a hit.


So there you have it. Adapted for a $5 game the strategy would look like this on even numbers:

$5 PL or Come. $25 odds.
First Repeater - press to $30 odds
Second Repeater - press to $40 odds
Third Repeater - press to $55 odds
Four Repeater - press to $100 odds

At the $10 level it would look like this:

$10 PL or Come. $50 odds.
First Repeater - press to $60 odds.
Second Repeater - press to $80 odds.
Third Repeater - press to $110 odds.
Fourth Repeater - press to $200 odds.

For my own edification I've taken this out to the 100X odds level. We'll assume we have $200 odds working at the $10 base bet level.

Fifth Repeater - $350 odds.
Sixth Repeater - $440 odds.
Seventh Repeater - $575 odds.
Eighth Repeater - $760 odds.
Ninth Repeater - $1000 odds.

Nine repeaters to get to $1000 odds.

Now, for the sake of comparison, I'll look at a betting progression on the six or eight based on RC's initial starting bet on a $10 game of $60.

$60 - first hit regress to $42 and lock up $70 win plus $28 from regression. $98 off the table. $42 bet is "paid for" with zero exposure.

Second hit at $42 pays $50 for $1 - same bet - lock up $49. $147 in the rack.

Third hit pays $42 - press to $90 - lock up $1 - $148 in the rack.

Fourth hit pays $105 - toke $5 - lock up $100 - $248 in the rack.

Fifth hit pays $105 - press to $180 - lock up $15 - $263 in the rack.

Sixth hit pays $210 - lock it up - $473 profit in the rack.

Seventh hit pays $210 - drop $30 and press to $420. $443 profit in the rack.

Eighth hit pays $500 for $10 - lock it up. $933 profit in the rack.

Ninth hit pays $500 for $10 - press to $900. $10 change gets locked up. $944 profit in the rack.

Which play makes more sense? RC's play has the lower house edge by a long shot. He also has a better chance of hitting a repeater early as I tend to only Place bet the six and eight on other shooters. Honestly, I haven't taken the time to go through RC's ten dollar play from repeater one all the way up through repeater nine to see how much money he'd have off the table at that point. I'm confident from having seen his rack of green and black through the years that it would be a lot.

So there you have it. A couple of ways to play. Let's hear your opinions. And yes, I know. Dylanfreak would have a single Don't Come bet with single odds . . . and he'd probably win more than all of us. Still - it's fun to play with numbers the day after over-indulging in Christmas goodies.

Thoughts?

[Sputnick]

I was one of the regular players that played with RC and Judy for a number of years. One of the pros of the Rappin' Captain's betting system was waiting for two box numbers before populating the odds portions therefore he saved money on PSO's One of the cons was if a shooter rolled each of the box numbers and then seven out without a repeater - very painful for RC's come bets with odds. RC played with a large bankroll and could tolerate the volatility of the craps table, but his method depended on a hand showing a lot of repeaters to make up lost earlier bets.
To highlight the major benefit of RC's EB: In 2012 at the HS in Tunica, I was having the best hand ever. RC walked up to play beside me and bought in for $3,000. I told RC's to tread lightly - I had just made my 15th repeater. He payed me no attention and started betting his EB and put his buy at risk immediately. The hand ended with me making 56 repeaters and RC making $50,000. Me - I made very good money but it paled compared to RC's win.

[heavy]

There you go. One of the bad things about progressive come betting is the volatility attached to it. And conversely, one of the good things about progressive come betting is the volatility attached to it. Volatility is both your friend and your enemy. It just depends on which way the pendulum swings.

[memo]

I was one of the regular players that played with RC and Judy for a number of years. One of the pros of the Rappin' Captain's betting system was waiting for two box numbers before populating the odds portions therefore he saved money on PSO's One of the cons was if a shooter rolled each of the box numbers and then seven out without a repeater - very painful for RC's come bets with odds. RC played with a large bankroll and could tolerate the volatility of the craps table, but his method depended on a hand showing a lot of repeaters to make up lost earlier bets.
To highlight the major benefit of RC's EB: In 2012 at the HS in Tunica, I was having the best hand ever. RC walked up to play beside me and bought in for $3,000. I told RC's to tread lightly - I had just made my 15th repeater. He payed me no attention and started betting his EB and put his buy at risk immediately. The hand ended with me making 56 repeaters and RC making $50,000. Me - I made very good money but it paled compared to RC's win.

Sputnick,

I always enjoyed reading RC's posts. His method was/is, very exciting to say the least. I recognized the volatility, however, and never tried it since I did not have a bankroll to sustain it. I can only imagine what would have happened if your hand had been shorter. I am sure he was prepared no matter what.

I think Heavy gave some good low roller alternatives....May have to study that.
Anyway, it is good to review and remember..

Memo

[Sputnick]

Heavy,

I agree 100% with your assessment of volatility swings. None of know how long and when the dice will change the pattern or direction they are trending to. We have all seen a players committed in one direction of play come hell or high water and either go in the hole too deep or go completely broke. I once heard a player say "you cannot control the trend of the dice - only the way you are playing".

[Americraps]

I've spent a lot of time wargaming RCs methods and tweeking them for my own amusement. I'm sure there are lots of different ways to skin a cat as far as winning goes, but as it relates to EO, you make nearly all your money on the long hands.
True, they don't come around very often, but when they do, you need to employ a system that takes maximum advantage. Any strategy that involves a regression cuts the legs out from under those big wins, and is antiproductive.

[heavy]

I'm out on those significant draw downs. In 2017 I won big for the first six months of the year, then lost big for the second six months of the year. Okay, the way I've been playing could see me recoup everything I lost in the last six months in just one session. But man, those sessions are hard to come by.

[Sputnick]

As we all know, timing is everything in this game. If you catch a long drought in this game with your shooting and betting going against you, then without a major bankroll or even with one, you will most likely be sitting on the sidelines when hearing about that monster hand. Very hard on your belief and faith system also. Things can get out of hand financially without discipline and lost limits.

[heavy]

Sputnick - a question arose off line that I didn't know the answer to. Do you recall if Sid worked his Come bet odds on the Come Out roll?

[Sputnick]

Heavy - RC never varied his method of play. Once he covered four box numbers with come bets - he always worked his odds on the come out. I have watched RC press his odds up to $1,000's of dollars - work on the come out and get knocked off with a seven. I asked him why he would expose his hard earned pressed up odds to a come out seven on a hand that had gone deep into the twenty plus box numbers. He said, "I get excited about thinking of the big bet that I am going to win on the next toss". After RC got knocked off on a come out seven, he would start all over on the shooter as if nothing happened. He did say that over a larger number of events of working on the come out he had won more often than not. Also, his logic was if he could get one more large paying bet before the seven showed he was better off. He had observed a number times that people did not work on the come out only to see a seven show on the next toss.

[Tgold]

Good topic as I often play a similar method and appreciate all the comments.

Can someone confirm if RC did indeed hold at the 5th repeater level til the hand ended? It has always been my understanding from players that teamed with RC (as well as from postings a few yrs ago on MP site) that RC continued the incremental increase in odds all the way to the end. Thanks

Posted From Above: " to 15 times odds. After the fifth repeater of the same number, and only the repeating number, press to 20 times odds. " Remain at 20 times odds until the hand ends."

[heavy]

That 20x odds statement came directly from RC's description of the play on the old MP dice institute site. My thinking is that if he were playing some place like the Horseshoe, where they allowed 100X odds that he would continue to press. But most of the places around were running 20X odds in those days.

[Sputnick]

RC would continue to press his odds to the bitter end. Once he maxed his odds bets on his flat come bets, he raised his flat bets so he could continue to increase his odds portion. As to my play, when I have my bets pressed up and a hand has gone on for an extended time, I look at all the money I have at risk and generally regress my bets to get more money out of the roll before the seven. I asked RC how he could disassociate from there being $10,000 plus at risk on his pressed up bets. His response was "those are just little wood chips. Do not think of them as money." It worked for him - I can not quite make that connection. RC was a very unique player. He certainly put his money were is mouth was and it worked very successfully.

[Sputnick]

Scout,

You are right - RC played many levels. RC played his level 10 exclusively as his health declined and in the last year of his life. Level 10 started with odds of $250 on the 6 and 8, and $200 on the outside numbers. He would press winning bets $100, $200, $300, etc. He had his biggest wins in his craps career in his last year. He was a tough person who persevered when he did not feel well. He always used the hard way set for regular tables and the inline 6's for crapless tables.

[Americraps]

I did an extensive test of RCs EB. With an edge over random of this small, I would think that more would be using his methods. It does require at least a 20x odds house (preferably 100x odds house) to play in and a huge BR though.
Here's the link to that long thread viewtopic.php?f=4&t=733
If you don't want to read the long version, here's the results post

OK folks, the Exponential odds experiment is over. Here are the final totals.
Beginning BR...$5000
Ending BR... $31,878
Net win + $26,878. A gain of $2.073 per roll.
# of Tosses - 12,960- 18 books
Average SRR- 6.077, no that's not a typo. The highest srr was 6.79, the lowest was 5.33.

I started this experiment with a 500 unit BR. After betting EO for 18 books, I would say 1000 units is the proper requirement.
As my BR grew, I upped my units from $10 to $15, then the last 2 books were $20, and $25 units.

I was shocked to see that i could win this much money with a very close to random srr. Granted, the conditions were perfect. I was shooting solo with no wait between hands, on my own table. Would it be different in a Casino? Was I random? At least in the beginning, I was. Is this a system that can beat the game, even on the Randy's? Good question. I would need to test it with incasino rolls to know for sure.
As has been discussed, the key to winning money with EO is NOT srr. The key is having long hands with lots of repeaters. I only actually got up to 100x odds twice, but didn't collect either time. So, is 100x odds neccessary? Apparently not, but you had better be ready to up your unit sizes so that you can press your bets by 20-25% and stay within the house odds limitations.

I'm stopping the experiment here because I have learned what I wanted to about EO. It works! My shot has improved to the point where I am ready to make another run at the casinos, and I want to wargame a method with lower BR requirements. I would like to use EO in the casinos eventually, but I am going to have to build a BR first. Rapping Captain, I tip my hat to you, RIP.

[House of Orange]

So Heavy: Who down south, LA & MS allows 20X odds these days?

And I assume at the $5 level, the session bankroll needs to be $2000?

[heavy]

Yeah - 10x to 20x seems to be the standard. There are still places in Louisiana with 100X odds. I suspect there are some in MIssissippi as well, although I couldn't tell you which ones off hand. Perhaps the guys who play Tunica and Biloxi on an almost daily basis could chime in with a little help.

And yes, I think at the $5 level you'd want at least $2000 in the rack. If you're losing it goes fast.

The thing I'd like some of you to think about NOW is playing the same odds progression on the Don'ts. Anyone want to run that through WinCraps?

[Americraps]

Need $5000 for $5 units

[House of Orange]

Need $5000 for $5 units

Hope not! If you need 10K for a $25 PL bet then dividing by 5
should be $2K. I would not do this on a table without at least a (prior BT results) 6.5 SRR

[Sputnick]

When I am playing RC's EB, I will play the following strategy: If I am fortunate to be in a hand where I have covered all of the box numbers and one or two the box numbers are repeating and the others numbers are not repeating - I will reduce the odds on the non-performing box numbers and press the number or numbers repeating. I get to a break even quicker and put more winnings in the rack. It is difficult for one or two numbers that are repeating to cover risk of money on the non-repeating numbers.