Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

. . . over on the FB craps pages and it sort of caught my attention. Basically it was something that I've said many times, but he phrased it slightly different. Essentially he said that whether you win or lose is not an indicator of whether you're controlling the dice or not. It's an indicator that you're betting your hand wrong. Or something to that effect. So let's hear your thoughts on that. What IS the correct way to bet your hand based on your preferred sets and tracking history?

The correct way to bet your hand is where you would have a positive expected return in the long run. So with a place bet one needs to see how well they toss a box number relative to a 7. However there are some, lets say naive craps players, that believe that DI means a profitable series/session every time. So, I believe a DI can still PSO several times but still be a profitable player on that same bet. But the person Heavy quoted seems like a person who would grumble at the Seven Out.

If one uses Bonetracker and determines one's tosses are influencing some number(s) more than their expected probability of showing, and one does not bet those numbers, one may not win but you may be controlling the dice like a zen master.

skasower...aka...still attempting to practice my way to such a DI nirvana....

I think betting the optimal way sometimes conflicts with the comfort level of the bettor. BT may confirm influence, but if you are not betting to your advantage then it can undercut your potential profit. For example, the optimal way for you to bet a certain point number is to bet maximum odds behind your PL bet; however that is not inline with your betting comfort. This impacts your ability to maximize profits and impedes BR growth.

Bankerdude80 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:56 am I think betting the optimal way sometimes conflicts with the comfort level of the bettor. BT may confirm influence, but if you are not betting to your advantage then it can undercut your potential profit. For example, the optimal way for you to bet a certain point number is to bet maximum odds behind your PL bet; however that is not inline with your betting comfort. This impacts your ability to maximize profits and impedes BR growth.

I think that the optimal betting is a combination of both; the influence and signature numbers from BT can provide direction on what to bet, and the comfort level of the bettor on bet sizes and BR will dictate the amount of those bets. It's a matter of directing the amount of table action the bettor is comfortable with into the proper bets identified by his signature numbers that drive BR growth. Sure if you bet more, you make more, but you should never be betting more than you are comfortable with or outside the confines of your BR.

Take me for example. My board handle described me to a T when I first signed up. Low BR, and very conservative comfort level. But as I learned more about the game, improved my toss and learned more about what my signature numbers are, I've been able to modify my betting strategy, grow my BR. My bets grew in proportion to my BR growth and as I became more confident in my tossing abilities, my comfort level on my table action has also grown. I've gone from a 22 inside or minimum 6/8 bets bettor to a 66 even level and a greater level of comfort with allowing those initial bets to be pressed up somewhat aggressively as a hand develops. But through it all, I have stayed within my comfort zone, only pushing the envelope as my abilities and BR grew to support testing the waters.

Without trying to micro analyze individual sessions a 3 point molly and lay off the odds if you toss a number that isn't one of your dominate ones would probably cover the majority of players.


Yea I know, I don't do that either.

Good points, 22 inside. Obviously you do not want to bet outside what your BR can support. If your BR can support the optimal bet size and you don't bet that way; it will limit your overall profits. I think MP had an article that addressed this back on the old Dice Setter site. I'll see if I can dig it up.

What I find particularly valuable about DI and Bonetracker- finding the sets and having the roll stats that allow me the best opportunity to get my first 3-4 rolls in paying numbers.

The GSR to me is the most important number I use to decide betting and regression/progression strategies. (BSR macro doesn't work on my Chromebook).

It seems that regardless of a 6.5 SSR or a 7.5 the ratio will be fractionally larger- but not a lot. More important for me is influencing the dice to return box numbers.

You could theoretically have a SSR of 10 but erractic hits. An example, you hit a craps on the come out, make a point, bet the inside and hit an easy 4 then a 3, one inside number, a hardway 10, a 12, etc.... And walk away a high SSR but a cash loser.

My 6.5 SSR stats show I have 3.78 rolls per inside and the obvious average 6.5 rolls per seven. Thusly- I count the number of inside and overall rolls to use as benchmark for how well I'm throwing the dice and decide on a regression.

At that point the big decision is based in your bankroll and loss limits.

If I could hit 2-3 inside numbers then drop and start a progression reliably (even if it's not a double digits roll) that is proof enough to me DI is effective.

But right now- the PSO is my nemesis!

That's the deal. Hit that first 6 or 8 for $30, drop it to $18 or $12 if you really want to start pressing with little or nothing at stake. I now try to get three numbers working all paid for early. Yeah..sometimes there's a bunch of junk that starts showing, but I just need that one hit.