Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

So here's a question I'm sure everybody has asked themselves after leaving a game. "I just saw (or tossed) a great roll. How did I not win more?"

This happened a month back at Bally's in LV. My wife had the dice and tossed a really nice 40-roll hand. It had 5 points, 13 8's, and eight 5's. I have been experimenting with a 3-bet plan.. basically a naked PL bet and 2 place bets, or a PL bet with odds and 1 place bet. Winnings play for more numbers. On this bet I played that "system," but also skipped a couple of usual progressions, taking extra hits at $30 and $42. I kept up the 8 on a comeout roll and got knocked off twice that way. That had been a moneymaker the rest of the trip. (I think I left a $30 bet up one time, but the second time I regressed to $12 for the comeout roll.) I also regressed after a pair of craps made me think the "rhythm" was waning. I turned bets off for a roll after the dice went off the table and again after some guy bought in next to her with $10k in 100's which took like 15 minutes for the crew to count 3x and stuff into the slot. (Then that guy turned his back to the table and took a phone call..) In short, I thought I was making the smartest play on each of these situations with the roll, but was wrong on most of them. When the 7 showed I had made about $250 on the roll. I never had more than $60 on the 8. We celebrated by leaving to get drinks, but I had to play it all back in my head later to count the number of regressions or "off" moves that coincided with 8s or 5s when I could've been paid. Ouch.

PS since a trip report includes good, bad and ugly, here's the ugly. Stickman played RR crossing guard with his stick in front of my wife and jerked it away when she raised her head to toss. She pulled up her hand to avoid hitting the stick and shortarmed a perfect 5-2 to end the fun. My brother in law was high-fiving my wife while the rest of us laid into the dealer. He didn't think anything of it. We all colored up and left.

What's your story of a shaking-your-head, "any win is a good win but that one really should've been more"?

Yep. Had some weird stuff at LV Ballys. Stick leaning way out as if to see the toss way before I'd made the toss or leaning back into me at SL1 or SR! and fainting ignorance when I asked for a little elbow room. All the while I was playing 2-way HW of the point all night.

Little disagreement here on the result of VMTS. They will save you money on short rolls, but they will not "cost" you money on long rolls. You will not take in more money on long rolls using VMTS. Cost indicates a negative value. It costs you nothing, actually to pull your bets down early. I use this technique all the time. Craps sessions are like ice cream. Endless supply. You make a little, build up yr. bankroll and then have it the other way if you want.

thnick wrote: ↑Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:29 am Little disagreement here on the result of VMTS. They will save you money on short rolls, but they will not "cost" you money on long rolls. You will not take in more money on long rolls using VMTS. Cost indicates a negative value. It costs you nothing, actually to pull your bets down early. I use this technique all the time. Craps sessions are like ice cream. Endless supply. You make a little, build up yr. bankroll and then have it the other way if you want.

Maybe I'm stirring the shit. I think "cost" is prolly the wrong word to use semantically, but my gut says I agree conceptually with Irish. When I read his reply, I kind of automatically accepted it with a mental "yup, I theen' so, tooo" without a second thought. Then I read yours, THnick, and it got me to thinkin' more about it, and I had a thought flash through my head... my stockbroker convinced me not to cash anything out in 2008/2009-- even the one or two moneymakers I still had in my portfolio. His reasoning was much akin to how I read Irish's, but he backed it with "a financial advisor's sense of 'data' "... he said, "You're gonna lose money lots of times and for protracted periods. You might lose lots of little amounts over a stretch of weeks/months, and the net (large and "very" significant) losses over a short period of years will seem to indicate that you should have bailed out. But if you missed 15 specific market days during the last 10 years, you'd be down about 40% without those days. You have to accept that piecemeal short-term losses are part of the game. You're in this for longer than a 10-year span, and it's the 15 days you're looking for. Even the 15 days had peaks and valleys, but you shouldn't time those, either."

Which to me, is kinda the same strategy I think a craps DI bettor has to employ in order to expect to make money.

I think the principles of VMT are the same for everyone, but I think when it comes to application it is different for everyone. There's many variables that will differ amongst players such as average bet, overall BR size, session BR size, pressing schedule, regression points, etc. Also, you will probably employ these VMT differently when betting on yourself vs a known DI vs an unknown DI vs a random roller.

Known DI- a DI you know and have observed his/her shooting style and results.
Unknown DI- a DI who looks like he/she might be a DI but the jury is still out.

Craps players have to decide what volatility management techniques to use and when to pull the lever to use them.
It's definitely not one size fits all.

Bankerdude80 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:25 pm I think the principles of VMT are the same for everyone, but I think when it comes to application it is different for everyone. There's many variables that will differ amongst players such as average bet, overall BR size, session BR size, pressing schedule, regression points, etc. Also, you will probably employ these VMT differently when betting on yourself vs a known DI vs an unknown DI vs a random roller.

Known DI- a DI you know and have observed his/her shooting style and results.
Unknown DI- a DI who looks like he/she might be a DI but the jury is still out.

Craps players have to decide what volatility management techniques to use and when to pull the lever to use them.
It's definitely not one size fits all.

Couldn't have said it better myself BD! Completely agree!!

The Topic title for this thread could have been the first line for all of my first ½ dozen casino craps TRs. In all fairness to myself I did not have the knowledge of the game, its math, or betting skills to capitalize on any hand long or short. My one laser focus was trying to toss the dice as perfectly as possible, believing if I could accomplish that everything would work out. It actually did work out fairly well. I was able to increase my bank roll 80+ times. Not 80% but 80-fold. It was however a pitifully small bank roll. Actually, I would call it a weekend entertainment budget on a business trip. It was enough though to get me started on an intense journey into craps and dice influence.

It really hit home to me how much I wasn’t winning/losing/leaving on the table after two great back to back hands late one night at the Horseshoe. Everything was kind of a blur. I was looking down at my almost perfect barber pole racks of 1red and 2white chips totaling around $1000. There were a few green. I was excited. My trance like euphoria was interrupted when the guy next to me touched me on the arm and gave me a black chip as he colored up over $5000 he had just made on my hands. I knew then I had a lot to learn.

I am a firm believer in the old saying “make hay while the sunshine’s”. We have to maximize our profits on the long hands to make up for the inevitable short hands and the dreaded PSOs! Knowing this is one thing. Actually, accomplishing it is a whole different animal.
There is a very thin line and a very small edge DIs hope to have. Just a few bad or poorly timed decisions in the heat of the moment can affect whether we are successful or not.

Hopefully this is legible. This is my third time typing it. Who knew playing craps would require basic computer and writing skills.

IMO...Does this not really indicate a, "I can't get no...satisfaction" possibly?

What I haven't heard mentioned here is "Win Goals". If I am accomplishing my win goals or close, betting my advantage w/ a plan, I am completely satisfied.

I'd rather be positive with the fact that I utilized my advantage, had a betting strategy and reached my goal, rather than look over my shoulder with a what if this or that scenario.

It's interesting to see the question reframed in terms of volatility management (and bankroll), which wasn't how I viewed it at the time, but I see the point. And those "off" and regression moves usually don't make a large enough difference to remember them all. I can only think of two times when it was more significant: once when going "off" saved me about $300 at the end of a long hand, and the story above where it obviously cost me more than $300. Getting $300 in chips pushed back across the table to you after a SO feels pretty good. But yeah, the flip side not so much..

Big O, you said it. Making hay when the sun shines. That's what kept me turning this situation over in my head after I colored up.

Since I won't get back to LV until the fall, I've got time to think about my play style and game test at home.

Thanks for the replies. I always learn something here.

It's greed vs fear. You want more but at the same time are afraid of losing what's on the table. My solution? Up a unit on the winning number on each hit. You'll be putting more of the win on your rack and leaving a small part of it on the table to increase your bet size. On the next hit you'll be locking up more than the previous win but at the same time leaving the same small amount again but your bet grows.

Based on the OP's first post above, his 5 would be at $50 then and his winnings on that number alone would be over $200 when the dreaded 7 shows up.

Sockeye wrote: ↑Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:29 am Getting $300 in chips pushed back across the table to you after a SO feels pretty good.

Yes, it does............ wink!

D.N8r