Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

The mean is a little over 3 rolls, so does that impact you folks strategy at the table? Do you throw out a come bet, lay a number, or lay odds on a previously esablished dont bet like Heavy likes? How much signifigance if any does the mean help to formulate your battle plan?

This is one that nags at me slightly. Just slightly. Because I do wait for two rolls before committing. If the first two rolls look good, I'm in on the third roll. If the first two rolls look whackadoodle and the table has been narrowing down towards sevens I will probably go a no 4 or 10 against myself on the 3rd roll. Like a $51 no 4 and place the 6 and 8 for $12 each. Something like that.

Why would you waste two rolls wondering how your shot is? If nothing else throw out two come bets.

Come bets are contract bets. And it would be one come bet as the first roll is off my PL. So I'm sitting there with a come bet moved to a number and I seven out with no way to take it down losing $20 instead of $10. My two first rolls are never wasted the way I see it. I can see what my shot is doing, I don't go PSO with more than my PL bet on the table. I'm not a big come bet player..although I have used a DP with a come bet to try and get a twofer on a seven.

HOA. Because - MATH.

Great points. Thank you.

There arent many di's in my area, so I was hoping to mabye use the mean as as a way to make a profit on the randies while waiting for the dice? Mabye a lay bet starting on the fourth roll of a chucker? Does the mean have any signifigance at all as pertains to a random game? Ive been studying my daughters old math book but I have managed to become further confused. Apologies to all if this is a silly question. You guys are great. This is the most informative, civil craps forum on the net.

Excellent points! I learn much from your perspective. Thank You!

irish wrote,
Can I profit from the random game? The answer is yes, maybe, probably not.

This is classic, and unfortunately too true.

irish wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:15 am The last thing I'll say is if you're wading through 6,7,8 or more randies while waiting for the dice, you'll probably not be successful in your DI endeavors.

This is the eternal problem and the reason I like 6 a.m. games. Or weekday afternoon games. I'm not a big nighttime player. I'd rather get my time in when I'm fresh, rested, and comletely sober. If I'm with friends, I'll play in the afternoons/evenings but then I'm just gambling. It's fun, it's not profitable. Every time I've cashed out big it was an early session.

If there are 10 people at the table I don't know, there is no way I'm bellying up.

Agree. I hate crowded tables and will move away to another table. If that doesn't work I go play blackjack. Been working on the Hi-Lo count for a while now. Did ok for me in Tunica. I find that I have to keep practicing at it, though and I did make one mistake on just the basic strategy which you must know cold to even start counting.

Great last two posts. If we wish to be successful, we avoid crowds and work on developing another AP play. When I read about some one squeezing in at SR 25, the spirit of slap just comes upon me.

irish wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:26 am If you have an edge, you have to play the edge.

DI's who don't wager on every one of their tosses tells me everything I need to know about the confidence they have in their skill, their knowledge of the game in general and DI specifically, and their wager to bankroll ratio. Fear of a PSO is wasted energy. The PSO is as much of being a DI as long repeating hands. Actually moreso. Sevens happen. PSOs happen. Don't work the mean, work the edge.

Unless you play a game within a game (GWAG) for the Comeout roll, the advantage play for the DI is to work on the comeout (WOTCO). It’s a waste to have that first CO roll go by and not get paid on it.

This is one of those areas where a lot of DI’s have issues. Primarily, the level of confidence in their toss so as to bet to their advantage/edge. Many struggle (myself included) with making optimal bets that are in line with their advantage. This leads to reduced profits when the long roll appears, and it also contributes to the difficulty in growing one’s bankroll.

For me, it comes back to managing “the crap between the ears”. Mastering that would make betting optimally so much easier.

irish wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:26 am If you have an edge, you have to play the edge.

True, true, true......well said

And if you have the edge, don't hedge the edge? I'm saying, new day, new table..or at least one you haven't played in a while..are you on your game instantly? Do you actually have an edge? I've seen DI's crash and burn. But maybe you guys never have. Maybe you trust your throw and muscle memory and total focus to be good all the time, right? Give me a break. IMO, yes you should aggressively push your edge if you are positive you have one in the hand you are playing at the time you are playing it. And how do you know? I know if key numbers show. Ok..maybe it's just there all the time and you have to go through some PSO's and the like at times and that is part of the game. Hey. Ok I don't like that part of the game. So I avoid it.

Great post Irish. I have learned the hard way to divorce my unreliable associates, especially their wives at the tables.

Yes. All truths. Does reduce profit. And reverse is true. What fascinates me about this discussion..and it is a truth, that even if your throw feels good, looks good, and you are throwing numbers to yr. set..it may still be variance! It's sort of like religion. You gotta believe you have something even though you're not sure it even exists at the time it looks like it exists!

Irish wrote,
a "crash and burn" because I played a session I didn't really want to play, at a property I didn't really want to play at, in conditions that were poor

,

A perfect description of my last outing. I would ad at a table i told my friends i would not play. In my defense they had changed the layout since i swore off of it and it was the only game in town. Still no excuse for letting it go as far as it did.

The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and onself for an oracle, is inborn in us all
Paul Valery .