Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hey all,

Was just re-reading the details of "Steve's Yellow Chip Play" and Heavy's Green chip version and had a question.

For those that don't remember the strategy here is the synopsis:

Steve's Yellow Chip Play is a straight lay strategy - no hedges, and he replaces once. The Palms collects the Vig on the win. Steve only lays the outside numbers: 4, 5, 9, and 10. Never the 6 or 8. He doesn't bet the DP or DC. A player gets the dice and tosses a come-out 6 for his point. His next throw is a 4, and Steve drops 2 yellows to the dealer and lays the 4. Next toss is an eight - Steve waits. Next toss is a nine - Steve drops a yellow and a purple and lays the nine. Next toss is a 10 - Steve drops 2 yellows and lays the 10. After 2 eights that I collect on, the shooter sevens out. Steve drops a black & 2 greens and collects 3 yellow chips, plus his three original lays. He racks & repeats.

and then Heavy's green chip version:

Over the course of the weekend I played the dumbed down "green chip" version of Steve's Yellow Chip play - Heavy's Lay to win $20" play - so if the five or nine rolled I laid that number for $31 and the four or ten for for $41. I was never knocked off more than one number, but getting knocked off one number still left you in a bit of a lurch

So now my question: If you get the feeling the roller is getting "hot" how would you transition to the right side?

My first thought is if he/she is throwing lots of 6 and 8's just leave the lays in place and place the 6 and 8 for $24 each and progress as you see fit.

What about the outside numbers you have lay bets on?

Do you take them down? (I can hear DarthNater cringing even as I type that statement!)
Do you hedge them with a Place bet and do not replace the Lay if it gets knocked off?

Buff-Yo

We cringe when someone takes down an established DC or DP, not a lay bet.

I think BYo'S play is a good one. Transition is one of the essential questions in craps. If yr. going $41 no ten and four and $31 5 and 9, one hit on a ten or four puts you down $41 which takes two no 5's and 9's to make that up to even. Since you went on the dark side for a reason..? And the shooter now is hitting repeat inside numbers, no junk, I don't see a problem in pulling yr. don't bets whether they are DC or DP or lay and using the money on the right side or starting to place bets against your don'ts. The question maybe is how long will you wait for the seven to show when you have all those no bets up there?

Have you considered applying "Confirmation Bias"?
.
As you are charting and observe the Toss Attempts are diminishing in number
and
Should you notice that ZERO of the most recent four shooters
actually tossed greater than five attempts prior to going S O,
AND
with perhaps less than 50% being BOX NUMBERS { think HORN }

LAY Against the Six (6) AND Eight (8)
for $36 each or $1,200
( or any other $ Dollar Amount you can afford to win )

following perhaps TOSS four ( or whatever )

With the Seven Out, you would rack $5 for every $6 at risk...
( $36 will net $30 less the Vig )
Also, you would lose only one wager at a time
AND
Win TWO WAGERS
if the SEVEN SHOWS at a convenient to you time

It all comes down to Taking a Gamble

just me saying
w c

thnick wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2019 12:26 pm I think BYo'S play is a good one. Transition is one of the essential questions in craps. If yr. going $41 no ten and four and $31 5 and 9, one hit on a ten or four puts you down $41 which takes two no 5's and 9's to make that up to even. Since you went on the dark side for a reason..? And the shooter now is hitting repeat inside numbers, no junk, I don't see a problem in pulling yr. don't bets whether they are DC or DP or lay and using the money on the right side or starting to place bets against your don'ts. The question maybe is how long will you wait for the seven to show when you have all those no bets up there?

I agree. But if you have DC or DP bets, just place them in a way that you win $$ regardless.

Yes. Making a DP bet for $13 will assure a win on any number you get. 4 and 10 can be placed for $10 as can 5 and 9. 6 and 8 for 12. All win either way. A lot of bets for a buck win in most cases, but...

thnick wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2019 4:47 pm Yes. Making a DP bet for $13 will assure a win on any number you get. 4 and 10 can be placed for $10 as can 5 and 9. 6 and 8 for 12. All win either way. A lot of bets for a buck win in most cases, but...

Once you're $13 Do Not Pass bet gets past the COME OUT
and
you offset the possibility of losing on that Box Number repeating
by place wagering in a $ USD amount
that allows a Win
on THE SPREAD...

Cover the nickles & dimes
AND
the Dollars will take care of themselves.

Remember to tip the dealers for all the heavy lifting.

HAVE A HAPPY Thanksgiving Day

w c

You have a happy one too, W. Yeah, the sure thing bet after the CO. It's kind of boring. You're not really playing craps. You're enduring craps. The grind play. If you have the bankroll to do it in hundreds or thousands..then maybe it's not so bad. Or it could get real bad real fast.

In regards to the Yellow Chip Play.....Yellow Chip Steve replaces once. Should a second lay get hit, he pulls the rest; and waits for the next shooter. When discussing that with him, it was obvious he had the tolerance to take those two loses; he declines to transition, ever. Nor does he ever do DP or DC.

As for me, I'm more pragmatic and have only played the green chip version infrequently, as I'm more likely playing the OHCM or some kind of Heavy Heatseeker Come bet. I also play a lot of GWAG come-out (which has really been good to me lately) so having a bunch of lays on the table doesn't align well with that approach. As to B.Yo's question - there's nothing wrong with taking the lay(s) down; or take down half of them. It's your money, so your call. I suspect I'd leave one up and let it protect a 6 & 8 place bet - that's very John Patrick - but it can work. I'd let the value of the place bets be equal to the win from the lay, or thereabouts, if there's no hit.

Good luck, D.N8r

Good topic/posts everyone.
One can see the merit of steves yel chip play. I would guess more often than not the 7 has already shown before the fourth Lay has been wagered. It looks like Steves transition is to: transition off the system and wait. This keeps him off the 15% or so sessions that are Anti-SYCP. Good approach and interesting.

I like to Lay though I haven't played in this exact manner but can see some good attributes. One attribute is the consistency of such a predetermined low H.E. system. I feel this is often overlooked as the game seems inclined to the adage: "what goes around comes around", so often most low H.E. systems will win if we have patience/exercise consistency and just wait for our system to be in-sync with the outcomes.
I like to lay the 6 or 8 and think his ROI would be higher if he included(especially since he has the built-in two loss/down). Though as we all know everything has a trade-off/I'm sure he has already tested and has reasons for not including. Good work Steve.

Thx again DarthNater et al.

All the best,
Tgold

Tgold,
Thanks for the note

Tgold wrote: ↑Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:54 am Good topic/posts everyone.
One can see the merit of steves yel chip play. I would guess more often than not the 7 has already shown before the fourth Lay has been wagered. It looks like Steves transition is to: transition off the system and wait. This keeps him off the 15% or so sessions that are Anti-SYCP. Good approach and interesting.

Steve says he very seldom gets the 4 bases loaded, as it usually 2-3 lays most of the time. Which makes sense with the statistical mean of three rolls.
He also said that when he gets to four without a knockoff, that its uncanny how one will get knocked off and then comes an immediate 7. Kind of like Heavy's play of having two DCs with odds where one gets knocked off, so he power presses the odds on the remaining DC.

D.N8r