Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Jeremy has posted up one of Heavy's strategies on the Color Up channel on YouTube. He even listed it as his favorite craps strategy for 2019. I liked it and I'm looking forward to giving this a try sometime on a $5 table.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewA9vGq7PTg

I use something similar for randies.

Skip pass, 6$ six, come bet 5$ 1x odds, any winning bet of the two, I spread to 2 more numbers.

Then start a collect/ progress.

Pso cost 1$.
16-17$ if they're out early.
Under 20$ for 4 box numbers early.

Then you see where you want to take it.

That's my moderate $120 play - which is basically the old Heat Seeking Craps Strategy. One thing he missed was "surrounding the point" when the six or eight is the point. Other than that he played it out well and made about a 50% return. He's used four or five or my strategies on his site before.

Hi Rickhem. Re: the link--A couple of likes and I would think it prob wins more than it loses:

A)He cites Heavy as his original idea contributing to his strategy(most youtubers try to convince viewers it is all due to their earth-shattering original thought invention);

B)His first wager is a PL(PL will out perform C bet $-for-$, especially if one is willing to Parlay natural winners);

C) He is finished with the shooter if a crap# shows on the come out.

I quit watching the video as soon as he started immediately covering >=three/four numbers(IMO --not optimum play on his $120 buyin or actually on any buyin). Risk to ruin and dilutes ROI% potential.

I have pos results with a moderately-like-somewhat-similar approach:

(If only $120 avail to risk as the youtuber above)
$30 PL(parlay any natural wins/ if W then back to orig $30) *see note at end
No Odds til after second number is rolled.
After second # is tossed Place the second # for $60, and NOW add 1x odds($30) to the PL wager.
So after second roll and two box#s have been hit I would have PL=30/Odds=30, along with my $60 Plc or 'buy on one number.

NOTE: *If my PL was parlayed(and now $60), I would NOT do the 1xodds on the PL, as I would already have $60 on that number.
**No pressing other than the PL parlay due to such small buyin
***Play through the $120 once and color up if ahead, OR, play til you lose the whole $120 buyin.

PROS: Dice are choosing the #s. It gives all your money a chance to produce in the fewest trials. If you lose you can only lose $120 max. If you win you have potential to win $120(or more) several times "before" losing the base amount. Variance has a chance to help us. IMO smaller wagers would only permit us to endure a lower-level of pain for a longer period, with much less potential for profit and buyin growth.

Cons: Most players wont like my approach because of the likely short playing time.


I guess the most important question for any/all wagering strategies is simply what is ones goal for that specific session/ then design the betting strategy to hit the >=target goal.




Thx for the posts/comments everyone

All the best,
Tgold

heavy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:11 pm That's my moderate $120 play - which is basically the old Heat Seeking Craps Strategy. One thing he missed was "surrounding the point" when the six or eight is the point. Other than that he played it out well and made about a 50% return. He's used four or five or my strategies on his site before.

I very much like the thought of "surrounding the point". I believe I read that exact verbage on your strategy posts a few other times, and being a 6 & 8 player, shifting over to the 5 or 9 seems like a logical approach.

Tgold wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:31 pm Hi Rickhem. Re: the link--A couple of likes and I would think it prob wins more than it loses:

A)He cites Heavy as his original idea contributing to his strategy(most youtubers try to convince viewers it is all due to their earth-shattering original thought invention);

B)His first wager is a PL(PL will out perform C bet $-for-$, especially if one is willing to Parlay natural winners);

C) He is finished with the shooter if a crap# shows on the come out.

I quit watching the video as soon as he started immediately covering >=three/four numbers(IMO --not optimum play on his $120 buyin or actually on any buyin). Risk to ruin and dilutes ROI% potential.

I have pos results with a moderately-like-somewhat-similar approach:

(If only $120 avail to risk as the youtuber above)
$30 PL(parlay any natural wins/ if W then back to orig $30) *see note at end
No Odds til after second number is rolled.
After second # is tossed Place the second # for $60, and NOW add 1x odds($30) to the PL wager.
So after second roll and two box#s have been hit I would have PL=30/Odds=30, along with my $60 Plc or 'buy on one number.

NOTE: *If my PL was parlayed(and now $60), I would NOT do the 1xodds on the PL, as I would already have $60 on that number.
**No pressing other than the PL parlay due to such small buyin
***Play through the $120 once and color up if ahead, OR, play til you lose the whole $120 buyin.

PROS: Dice are choosing the #s. It gives all your money a chance to produce in the fewest trials. If you lose you can only lose $120 max. If you win you have potential to win $120(or more) several times "before" losing the base amount. Variance has a chance to help us. IMO smaller wagers would only permit us to endure a lower-level of pain for a longer period, with much less potential for profit and buyin growth.

Cons: Most players wont like my approach because of the likely short playing time.


I guess the most important question for any/all wagering strategies is simply what is ones goal for that specific session/ then design the betting strategy to hit the >=target goal.




Thx for the posts/comments everyone

All the best,
Tgold

I'll admit that I'm probably one of those that's not ready to have that much of my bankroll at risk on a single shooter, or on a single bet, so despite the upside potential, the possible loss of 50% or more of my buy-in would keep me from going that aggressive with my bets. But I like the thought process you're laying out.

Interesting play Tgold, assuming I am reading it correctly.

Hi Eastcoast --I hope all is well.
I do play similar to my play above(though not with 120 buyin as the youtuber or orig poster suggested). For a >=1000/1400 buyin I do wager at the 30/30 PL&odds, and 60 plc levels. Which statistically is still a little underfunded for the 60/60 levels.

I typically only play for a >=2.0 win goal. I seldom draw down enough to get concerned and always color up the first time I hit my win goal. I like the idea of missing the 7 on roll#2(only $30 risked), and then after the roll#2 I now have >=six ways to win to the 7s six ways, with overall low H.E. wagers. Plus the dice are choosing my two numbers. Its conservative and seems to keep me close til I get a little favor. Probably not much better or worse than any other two-wager approach. IMO most any one or two wager system will keep us close to even long enough til we get that first positive sway in our direction.

All the best,
Tgold

Tgold wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:33 am Hi Eastcoast --I hope all is well.
I do play similar to my play above(though not with 120 buyin as the youtuber or orig poster suggested). For a >=1000/1400 buyin I do wager at the 30/30 PL&odds, and 60 plc levels. Which statistically is still a little underfunded for the 60/60 levels.

I typically only play for a >=2.0 win goal. I seldom draw down enough to get concerned and always color up the first time I hit my win goal. I like the idea of missing the 7 on roll#2(only $30 risked), and then after the roll#2 I now have >=six ways to win to the 7s six ways, with overall low H.E. wagers. Plus the dice are choosing my two numbers. Its conservative and seems to keep me close til I get a little favor. Probably not much better or worse than any other two-wager approach. IMO most any one or two wager system will keep us close to even long enough til we get that first positive sway in our direction.

All the best,
Tgold

Lately I started using 24/24 instead of 30/30.

I like to press a unit on first win and save 12$ on bad turns.

24-30-66-66-150-150-180-420-660-900
As a big night play.
As a rule if thumb, most decent hands will stop after 3 repeater. This collects 22-1+77=88.

Often got to 420-660. Only pressed once to 900 but had skipped a 150.

Or I build a press/regress

18-24-54-30-66-66-150-150...
That one works suprisingly well.
This collect 15-2+63(+24) in 3 hits for 100.

Come bet in the play are used as pso protection, reduces losses a bit on a cold day.

But also a heat seeker like heavy says.
Some nights it's your best bets to let the dice decide of your betting!

Hi DanF--good thoughts above.

"..Lately I started using 24/24 instead of 30/30.."

Was there a particular reason(e.g., wanted first press increment to be be higher%, other,..etc)

"24-30-66-66-150-150-180-420-660-900
As a big night play.
As a rule if thumb, most decent hands will stop after 3 repeater. This collects 22-1+77=88."

DanF--Ive enjoyed a lot of your previous posts as I can tell you seem to always strive for more efficient methods to get ur base bet higher, and as quickly/efficiently as possible.

I agree with "most decent hands will stop after 3 repeater". When we review 1000s of hands we see a lot of 3iars(and an extra hurdle to see a 4iar). We also see this on 50-50 type wagers and advantage wagers such as the Lay. Even when laying the 6 or 8 , we can often receive 3 x7s in a clump but need a little favor to make it over the 4iar hurdle it seems.
I like how you start the above pospro. (Im 98% pos pro bettor on all the almost-50-50-wagers(Bac:B/P, crps PL/DC), and Lay bets. Though Im always eyeing my first goal of approx. 2.0U win. I find the compounding spinoff% is most efficient method to offset the casinos H.E.(the little big number). Plus I look at it as "Im getting paid more when I put together consecutive Wins, however, the Cas gets paid even money when they win consec wagers against me."

DanF: "24-30-66-66-150-150-180-420-660-900"

My thoughts without knowing your win goal/session objectives:

I like your stutter between 3iar/4iar. Though I likey wouldn't go on up like this on a Non 50/50 wager such as plc or buy bet.
Re:your stutter step. Though I would suggest compounding at least something(even if only H.E. or the vig..etc). I know a tiny amount is difficult on place bets and though a tiny increase may seem like we are micro managing.Each and every compound is critical in my thinking. I would prob be in favor of 66-72 and maybe do a slight decrease on a latter level if we wanted to get that $6 back. Though at a latter level it likely wouldn't be of much concern (900).

*One thing that I have received favor with is on 50-50 type wagers like (Bac:B/P, Pl/Dc) is once my wager has enjoyed a pospro through say a 3-4iar same-side streak is to set it aside(for another run, another session, another trip), and put it back into the game in spots I feel more confident.
Though, Im never in favor of leaving a winning streak so when I am fortunate enough to set aside a larger wager, I still continue that current winning streak with a wager size just slightly larger than my Base U.
My reasoning: Same-side streaks on most 50-50 wagers start losing steam quick when we start getting to that 5iar-6iar-7iar range.

Bottomline: I have far more success (i.e., 50-50 wagers) in putting together say an 8iar streak by catching a couple 3iars and a 2iar, or say a 4iar/3iar , instead of trying to guess when the 8iar is going to show. I know there is opportunity to catch >=2"ormore" streaks because they are indeed floating around out there all the time, I see them everywhere/often, 8iar--9iars same-side streaks, not so much.


Thx for all the comments

All the best,
tgold

Tgold,

My win goal is 1-2k
I usually would call a session on a 600$ win, as it is my buy-in at that level of betting.

I've been using the up a unit first hit for a while and I really like it.

The target bet I like to have before I start making moves is 30.

Then you get a lot of options.
Collect, up 12 to 42, or powerpress for 1$

I like going to 66 cuz you collect 3 green chips + 2 whites, which I either bet for dealers or use on hardways.

I rather push to 150 earlier then go for 90 for a black chip. But I collect twice at that level. Cuz most hands will finish at 3, long hand rarely push over 7 and great hands barely pass 10 repeats.

That is from experience of play, in practice & in casino.

Overall I love that press schedule and it looks gutsy but by going up a unit first, you collect 28-6=22, for a 24 bet. I think for me it is the most effective betting I've ever found for now.

Of course that is a high roller play as combined with 1x pass & 1x come bets, it is 100$ investment every try.

It won't be my main plan, just a booster.
I am a man of many plans as you know.

But in practice I popped a 3k hand, so I like it so far.

Hi DanF
Thx for post/wagering approach. I like your aggressiveness early-in-hand as Im sure it tags some large wins.

I agree with: …"Cuz most hands will finish at 3, long hand rarely push over 7 and great hands barely pass 10 repeats."...

When we look back at roll data for most sessions it may surprise some at how often we actually see a 3iar on one of the numbers(even the 4/10 tap a 3iar fairly often). However, there seems to be a significantly higher hurdle when we look at how many 3iar go to 4iar vs the hurdle increase for a 2iar to 3iar. Even the line bets have difficulty tapping a 4iar(at least for me).

IMO the difficult decision is what to do after 3 hits on a number(Im against ever leaving a winning streak), yet historical data clearly says we cant count on the 4iar,5iar,6iar on any one number (due in part to most hands seldom get past hand 20-25), so we cant realistically expect one number(at a disadvantage) to show approx. 33% of the total rolls(say 6hits on 1#/18toss hand).

One approach that Im finding some favor with that addresses both of my concerns above(i.e., not seeing many >3iars/ never leaving a win streak), is to basically do a reverse Euler: 1.0 +1.0 +.5 +.33 + .25 +, , , ...etc as a f(x) of the original base Unit. (e.g.,$60 baseU= $60 +60 +30+20 +15...etc ).
So after that critical 3rd hit I have 2.5 of my base already paid on , AND "IF" the win streak does go farther the compounding from the early aggression will spin off a higher ROI. If the win streak stops at the 3iar Ive already been paid on everything the casino takes off the felt(except the very last press "0.33% of my 2.83 wager, which in the above case would only be $20 from a now $170 wager--in which Ive already been paid on 3x prior to losing it @ $60,120,150).


Thx everyone for the posts/comments

All the best
Tgold

Tgold,
I find your suggestion of the Reverse Euler interesting, as you basically "top" out at ~3.0 multiplier of you original bet. Have you assessed it at the tables or counted rolls? Would you apply it differently to randies vs setters?

D.N8r

PS Would there be an inflection point where you start increasing the bet amount..... i.e. to try and exploit a shooter that keeps banging the same number repeatedly?

I can say that the majority of the time numbers do not hit more than three times in any one hand. I count EVERY roll of every roller in every session. This ties in very well to the end of roll scenario,that being only 2% of rolls get past roll 25. And the average number of Rolls of PAYING inside numbers being approximately seven in a roll of 20+. I thinki hear a fomo question here....hehe

Hi Darthnater, Seattle Rick: good thoughts above.

DarthNater: Yes-u are correct-- it will max near 3.0 of orig wager if I continue (don't regress) til end of hand-ending 7. The main benefit imo is that our aggressive compounding at the beginning is with recently-won funds and we hope to take most of that to our rack several times "before" they rake our initial risk(base U) off the table. The obvious downside is that we need to get that second hit. I play with a theory that 50-50 wagers "like" P/dc and P/B in Bac hit 2iars more often than many probability tables may suggest. I like this reverseEuler press scheme primarily on what we call 50-50 wagers (Line), though I do think that once a box# has hit there is a slightly-greater potential for (that#) to reappear in the near future vs another similar-prob number that has never occurred or disappeared for a couple cycles.

DN: Have you assessed it at the tables or counted rolls?
Yes, live data and analysis.
I agree with what SeattleRick indicated above/previous posts ~~re:very few hands will surpass that 25-30 range/ significantly unlikely that when they do occur its very likely these 30ish hands still have "at least one" seven. Plus consider that unless we are always working/wotco we don't collect on every box# hit. Im more likely to work/wotco on myself and DI team mates.

Im more in favor of this on a line wager to reach 3iar--4iar(e.g., PL,Dc1) than a box# ,as you know box#s significantly less-likely to hit 3winners before seeing a 7, though I do like the extra payout(e.g.,above on the 3 payouts on 5or9 @ 60,120,150= +$84,+168, +210=$462), and lets say I don't get that fourth hit at 170, still a $462 collection on a baseU of$60+20last press, is a nice return. Im much more likely to risk the Line wager to progress from 3iar to 4iar vs the box# .
One opinion for this 3iar stage being a difficult hurdle(and more likely for Line vs Box#) is due mainly to the short cycles of the 7(over 51% of 7s will occur within four rolls of the most previous 7). I view the probability of a 7 as like a vulture circling to descend upon roadkill--its not a matter of IF, but when. That 7 seems to always be lurking.

Another main issue I have with betting a same-side or same# wager will go 3iar to 4iar is that (SS/S#) wagers' lengthier win streaks get into the (e.g., >3, 4,5,6,iar...etc range), present bettors with an issue re:Overlap. For example: They can have the same probability of other 4iar patterns, yet because of this overlap they don't occur independently and thus two 4iar streaks can overlap/ though are counted as two streaks we cant benefit as easily(e.g., the 5iar streaks of 66666 or PPPPP are seen/counted as two 4iar streaks: Hits 1-4/ 2-5 within "one" streak, overlap/not independent). They are not independent as ones presented in separate strands, therefore, we have more difficulty collecting $. Just opinion by Tgold.

NOTE: My favorite craps wager to hit a 3-4iar is a Lay on the 6 or 8. Sometimes multi-number wagers like the Field will lend itself to a 3iar(and Down) opportunity.


Would you apply it differently to randies vs setters?
I never(never always=seldom) in any of my posts. I don't recall doing this on randies(though if RR is next to 3-4 DIers that have just completed consecutive 12-18 roll hands then I prob would). Though after the 3iar I would most likely set aside the pressed up wager(for a latter spot), and reduce to just slightly above example of $60 BaseU in above post.

Thx for comments/posts

All the best,
Tgold

This is prolly one of the most helpful thread I've seen for a while guys.

Glad we spike a good discussion about 3-4hit's hands. Love the input of lays...never would've thought of it.

Lately I've been looking to revisit my old profitable systems. And relax my agressiveness a lil bit.

I'm looking to revisit some dark side switch system. Lays, Low increase and high collects...powerpress, collect and down...


Think about limiting the jack pot hunt a bit, and try to make a system I like to play