Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Let's talk a little bit about roll tracking - or "charting" at the tables. Plenty of people do it. I even have a section in my seminars where I discuss it and show you how to do it and what to look for. It can be as complex as you want to make it, with patterns, trends, certain numbers following certain numbers, friendly numbers, enemy numbers, and on and on and on. But what are you REALLY looking for?

First off, let me start by saying that roll tracking or charting gives you a look at past results only. As with looking at stock market trends, this comes with a warning. Past performance is no promise of future results. Okay, that's out of the way. Now I'll fall back on my old favorite. Yeah, it's history. But history has a way of repeating itself. Particularly when you factor in the human element. And if that human element includes dice setters who have a skill that may or may not be favoring the dice one way or another, it's even more important. A good DI may, for example, have an "off" day where he's tossing nothing but short hands. He's still influencing the dice. You just need to capitalize on it by betting it right. The same goes when he's tossing nothing but long hands. It's when his toss is off and he's tossing randomly that you have to watch what you're doing. To that end, let's take the next step.

When charting tables or shooters you're really looking for just two things. An expansion of the number of rolls between sevens OR a contraction of the number of rolls between sevens. That's it. The whole thing. If the sevens are getting farther apart then you probably don't want to be playing the Dark Side, or if you ARE playing the Don'ts you want to be selective about it and maybe straddle the fence with a hybrid play, combining some place action with your Don't Pass or Don't Come bet.

If the rolls between sevens are contracting then you need to be thinking in terms of getting more action in on the Dark Side. Don't Pass with odds plus Don't Come with odds. Or if you're a Lay bettor watch for those energy draining event opportunities then Lay the hell out of the point. Opportunities abound in these situations.

Unfortunately, most of the time the rolls between sevens will neither be expanding nor contracting. There will be what I call a "breakthrough line" in your chart out around seven to eight rolls. No one gets past eight rolls. But a lot of players make one Pass before sevening out in those eight rolls, so it's tough to know which way to play. We'd call this situation a choppy table, and these are the toughest ones to play. That's when you need a "staying alive" type play like One Hit - Can't Miss or something similar. Something that keeps you in the game without a great deal of exposure. A grind strategy that positions you to win if the shooter has a breakout hand while hedging you against a big loss on any given shooter. That's the plan.

Do I actively chart with a pad and pen at the tables? Rarely. I find the whole physical charting process distracting. I can track the rolls with chips in the back rail in front of me if I want to, but honestly, it's not that difficult to keep track of this stuff in your head. Just know your strategy when you walk up to the table. Plan your play and play your plan. You'll know where you are every step of the way.

I believe there are patterns in randomness. As Heavy puts it "there is a expansion and contraction of not only the 7's but every number". The seven however is the trump card the most important to track. Do all of the numbers mathematically after millions of rolls end up at there correct percentages...YES...it's how they get there you can take advantage of. I helped Craig the last night on the ship, he texted me twice saying he doubled his money on one and the second text I'll quote "Ive been bragging about how you were like Nostradamus with telling me how to bet on that last night. There were some dominant numbers eight/five and horn numbers on certain patterns we exploited. We also used the Heavy power press to quickly build up our wins. However, the key was when the table went negative, Craig was off on every shooter until it turned positive. Two out of three is a pattern turning a table positive or negative for betting purposes. Does the pattern theory work every time...NO...that last night it did. there were two more keys to that last night, roll number four on every shooter was filled with sevens and horns. We never had our bets working on roll number four and took a C/E. The other point Craig could not take advantage of because they were all his clients at the table, is the 10 disappeared for 13 shooters in a row, if he would of bet no 10 for that period of time he would have doubled or tripled his money.

How did I know the thread killer would be on this like white on rice. This guy is the reason MANY people do not post on this site. A true modern day democrat, probably a Bernie/CNN supporter. If you have something that does not agree to his thought process you have a phobia or Russia made me do it. Yes Irish Putin agrees with me.

I dont have cable so I dont watch any tv. But all those channels are on at the gym. Just wanted to point out that some of those chicks on fox news are smoke shows.

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:11 pm I dont have cable so I dont watch any tv. But all those channels are on at the gym. Just wanted to point out that some of those chicks on fox news are smoke shows.

Smoke shows? As in smoking hot? Like Shannon Bream?

Yes Sir. There is even a hot red head on in the afternoon.

No need to interject politics into the discussion - nor for anyone to be a complete asshat. Six Shooter didn't make any particularly outrageous mathematical claims. He simply reported what happened at the table during one session on the Craps Cruise. Interestingly enough, what he recognized as a "pattern" (e.g. the seven or a horn number coming up on roll 4) is just math to a lot of us. If you're a random roller and the average hand is 8.3 rolls then the mean for that hand is going to be what? Around 4 rolls? And if "variance" isn't the expansion or contraction of rolls between numbers (read difference between expected and actual results) it beats the heck out of me what it is. We're really getting hung up on semantics here.

I get it. Irish looks at charting as craps voodoo and sees no value in it. Six Shooter places great value in it. I fall somewhere in the middle and take a chicken soup approach - it can't hurt.

What I don't get (from anyone) is the need to be a dickwad when posting in response to another forum member. I do not allow that at all over in the FaceBook groups, and they're doing just fine. Frankly, I'm to the point of invoking the "No Dickwads" rule here on the forum as well. Let's get our collective acts together, gents.

Thanks.

h

Anyone can become a " Dice Counter"
aluminum hat not required
just optional

Should a hypothetical string of numbers show

for example

Come Out 7,7,11, 5
followed by 3,9,4,2,6,8,6,10,9 and SEVEN(7) OUT

would you track the results of those tosses

with chips or on your fingers or however

numerically or chronologically?

w c

I apologize Heavy, meant no disrespect to you, the site or any members....won't happen again. I think it is a great topic and it could have information that may or may not help members, however, a great discussion topic. After all, this site is to share information to beat our common enemy...the Casino's.

wild child wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:34 am Should a hypothetical string of numbers show

for example

Come Out 7,7,11, 5
followed by 3,9,4,2,6,8,6,10,9 and SEVEN(7) OUT

would you track the results of those tosses

with chips or on your fingers or however

numerically or chronologically?

w c

A 4x6" notebook works great, left die, right die result. Be a dice counter!

How do you reliably track L/R dice results?

22Inside wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:31 pm How do you reliably track L/R dice results?

IMO... Save the L/R thing for the privacy of your at-home practice.

HoO tells you how to chronologically make a hard copy chronology recorded track.
The hard copy chronology recorded hand. it could serve to collect a database.

Something may come of the effort or not
( statistically, that is another crapshoot exercise )

Counting on your fingers or relying on recall is at best SHORT TERM.

just me saying
w c

Gee-golly whillakers, so you're saying the difference between, "there are patterns in randomness," in a game of independent trials, and generally accepted statistics and mathematics principles is just semantics? Good one! * It baffles me why the AP community does not take the DI community more seriously. Why, that's as silly as a fur coat on a toad!

*If I add 2 + 2, I'm using "math" to get an answer. If the result I get is 5. I'm still utilizing "math" but I'm applying the principles incorrectly. That error is not simply semantics. I can "believe" that 2 + 2 = 5. I can site anecdotes where results ~appear~ to equal 5 (but actually do not) and people can call me Nostradamus for my belief, but that does not make the answer 5. That would be a poopy-doopy-head conclusion to make. Now, I just realized I used the "P" word. I surely hope I didn't upset anyone's delicate sensibilities. Why, that would make me as sad as a ladder-backed woodpecker in a tornado.

Come on, Thom. Stop being a dick. Do I need to go through and pull up all of the posts where you've talked about the "mean" and the critical points in a shooter's hand and the fallacy of the five count? I'm using YOUR math when I talk about the mean and the likelihood of the seven showing around rolls 3/4 and the fact that it happened to coincide with Gary's tracking results. Meaning essentially that his tracking pretty much proved your thesis. No 2 + 2 = 5 about it. At least in that particular situation. Again, I don't buy every bit of voodoo the roll tracking theorists preach. In fact, I reject the majority of it. Even though at one point (and he didn't mention this) Gary correctly called - and bet - seventeen consecutive hop bets on the craps cruise.

You didn't mention it, but I'll just go ahead and say that yeah, I "get" the confirmation bias thing. I know the seven is going to show up one roll in six over the long run. I don't blame it on the dice bouncing off the table, the stick change, new money on the table or any of that bullshit - although it certainly SEEMS like those Energy Draining Events have a way of drawing out the seven. But the math is what the math is over the long run. On the other hand, I don't necessarily look at any individual session as a long run event. The long run is basically a lifetime of short run events for most players. And even that does not approach the casino's long run. But that's another issue entirely.

Bottom line, I think you're going out of your way to be contrarian here. It's really not necessary to make your point, and the tongue in cheek stuff doesn't suit you particularly well either. You've always called it as you saw it, but the last few years your viewpoint seems to have gotten increasingly negative. I, for one, would like to see your insightful comments without you inciting the other members to riot.

22Inside wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:31 pm How do you reliably track L/R dice results?

Pick the left die and follow its travels. The second number would be the right die.

House of Orange wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:26 pm

22Inside wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:31 pm How do you reliably track L/R dice results?

Pick the left die and follow its travels. The second number would be the right die.

I've tried to consider L/R tracking in live play using that method, but found it way too distracting for the main task at hand. I'm glad it works for you.

The best thing about charting is “actually” seeing the length of rolls and the amount of certain numbers coming up. Often times we get caught up in our play that we tend to exaggerate or under report what actually happened at the table. I used to track rolls but no longer do because I think I have a pretty damn good feel for the game. However, ask my bankroll about my “feel for the game” and it might say otherwise lol.

After logging hundreds of hours of gameplay, and reviewing my old gameplays (tracking), I’m very comfortable how I play the game today.

I recommend players chart a few sessions to get a true understanding/picture of a typical session. I think the results may be beneficial. And if six shooter really called 10+ plus hop bets in a row...when you heading out West??? My bankroll always needs more money!

I've pointed out the work of Ronald Graham to this forum before. A few times. The guy has tracked thousands of rolls and finds the same results in Midgely. While he finds what anybody would regarding the bell curve, and verifies the math truth, he has also found patterns, streaks, lost numbers within thousands of rolls. The problem is you never know when those patterns, streaks, etc. are happening. Also..You can say that you've seen two 4s followed by an 11 and then a 7 several times in a series of hundreds of rolls. Will that be true for the next time or will it skip a time or is that pattern at an end? Look, you've got the third or fourth roll and the eighth rolls as having some significance, maybe. You can turn yr. place bets off and then back on at will. You can lay bets before the third or eighth roll like $5 Bill. Best of all is to learn to throw the dice to produce numbers that are in the set you are setting. That won't work all the time, but when it does it's golden. And you can pretty much tell whether you're getting your numbers in 3 rolls. If you're setting V3 and you get a 6-1 or a 5-2 or a 5-5, you'd better hold back a bit. It is the true edge. Sometimes.

Ya know --- I used to really like this forum, and now after reading the above tirade I don't like it so much.
Just Saying.
Dr.B.

Dr.Surf wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:33 pm Ya know --- I used to really like this forum, and now after reading the above tirade I don't like it so much.
Just Saying.
Dr.B.

You can lay bank on the length of time after a Six Shooter post and an Irish reply. I'm surprised that Jaime doesn't try to bet the over/under on the time and have a long thread about it over on the Games Other Than Craps board.

Seriously though these really do not happen all that often so I'm not going to throw the baby out with the bathwater and get out of what is the best craps related resource out there. If you want real drama, head over to some of the craps related boards on Facebook. Heavy's boards are the best of the bunch there as well. Coincidence? I think not.

At the end of the day, Irish is deeply knowledgeable about the game. I just put my secret decoder ring on and read between the lines to extract the pearls of wisdom from them. Hell sometimes even my tiny brain pan comprehends them.

I know this will probably draw a response from Irish that he doesn't need my help defending him, but I don't really give a shit (insert another smiley here if I could).

Gary has some things that he thinks works for him. But then again, don't we all. I read everyone's posts here and take away what nuggets of information I feel are useful and discard the rest.

Keep posting guys