Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

i like place bets because i can take them down or turn them off

I place bet because I choose which number(s) I’m betting.

An occasional Come Bet is useful in specific situations because it offers a partial hedge against the seven and a potential win on the eleven.

I like the come with odds you just can't fight the math that it has a lower house advantage. Now that being said I will forego the come and place the 6/8 if I'm working the comp system. The casinos that I play don't count the odds towards comps. When things are going good as in a winning session I will also make a come bet in addition to my place bets. Mathematically to reduce the House Advantage one is better off increasing the odds portion of a bet than taking more bets(until you reach max odds). Yes the come does also act as a hedge and I generally rack the eleven winner to use as additional odds. Pass line and come bets with odds does increase the volatility so one must have a proper bank roll. If I make a unplanned visit to a casino and I'm on a short bank roll I may just place the 6/8. Thank you irish for the post I'm looking forward to hearing other players opinions.
Cheers
Grinder

Years ago - and I'm talking about back before some of you were born - famous (to some of us) gaming writer N.B. Winkless did a great deal of research on the "best" way to play craps and make money. At the end of the day he came up with this simple, no-nonsense strategy. Pass Line with max odds (in those days double odds were about all you could find). Place the Six and Eight. Then make continuous Come Bets with Max Odds, letting Come Bets replace the Six and Eight Place Bets if they rolled. Just keep pushing out money and collecting when the repeaters roll until someone catches a big hand and you make money OR you run out of money. It's hard to argue with that strategy from a mathematical point of view. If I were to take any sort of different approach it would likely be the opposite approach. Don't Pass with Max Odds. Lay the Four and Ten. Continuous Don't Come bets with Max Odds until the Devil Shows. An interesting WinCraps side by side study opportunity for someone with the interest in playing with it and time on their hands during this stay at home holiday.

I like the N.B.Winkless strategy I'm just not sure if I have a large enough bankroll to survive the down turns. I will definitely give it try on my table. As far as dark side betting I don't see anything wrong with Heavy's approach. I'll have to see if I can find a copy of his book. Thanks Heavy.
Cheers
Grinder

Yeah. Winkless has something there. Some players just don't like come bets because they are that non removeable bet. But in reality..it's usually a minimum bet. You add odds and you can always take off yr. odds if you sense things are not going well. I favor playing the DP on a random shooter with a come bet after the come out. Seven hits you make money on both bets. Come bet moves to a number..you are now even. Watching Road Gambler when he was making videos..the PL, max odds, come bet with odds was his go to game at least on videos. And if you watch them..overall that was when he made the most money. And all the shooters were random shooters except for him at times.

The issue I have with come bets is that unless you're making max odds (or at least 5x), then the flat part of the come bet is hurting you and a place bet for an equivalent amount pays better.

So instead of a stream of come bets, wait for a number to roll and then place the number for the amount of the come bet and odds that you would have made. When the place bet hits, decide how you want to handle it based on what your come bet strategy would have been.

So instead of a stream of come bets, wait for a number to roll and then place the number

this is how i play alot on other shooters. dealers often tell me "it pays better if you bet it before it rolls" I tell them its a come bet i can control.

Well, it does not appear that any other roll than the first roll is being talked about here. If we take the entire roll universe, you would get a seven one out of six times you made your come bet.you would win $10 and I would lose $64. The other five times I would win either $18 or $14,depending on the number rolled and you would win zippo.now most likely I would get a crap-11 on one of those rolls,for a push,but your come bet would either lose ( four ways ) or win ( two ways ) on that roll,so basically a push for you also. Now AFTER the first roll,you absolutely have to hit the number a SECOND time to get paid. Now if your number is a 4 or 10 , I get paid $18. Assuming you take $10 odds,I will then take my place bets all down and bet $20 on the four. Now if the four rolls,you get paid $30 for your come bet AND it comes down. I, on the other hand get paid$40 minus one dollar to buy the four for a total of $39, AND mine stays up ( unless I CHOOSE ) to take it down. Now what if the seven rolls first. You lose your $10come bet and your $10 odds. I lose my $20 place bet,however this bet actually only cost me $2 ( plus $1 vig ) for a total of $3, because I got paid THE FIRST time the number rolled. Also if the shooter rolls three or more times after setting the four, I can take my place bet down,netting me an $18 profit.you can not take your come bet down,so even if you take your odds down ( a rare occurance ), you will lose at least $10, if the four does not roll. If the four does roll again ,you will make either $10 or $30. The calculations for 5&9 and 6&8 are basically the same ( only a little less profit for the place bets and the odds portion of the come bet ). So it basically comes down to how much you fear the seven showing on the first roll,because the come bet sucks every other way against the place bet of equivalent amounts. There is no right answer for every player......
Also as an aside, on the wizard of odds forum, the wizard was a little bit cornered on this question of the come and pass line with odds being the best overall bet. He did the calculations and admitted that if you place bet the numbers, for one roll, the house edge would be .05 %,or about one third of the commonly thought to be the lowest house odds bet. He did say in a different post a couple of months later,that he thought that that method of play,was not really applicable for most players. That does not diminish the mathamatical fact of its existance however. And that as they say, " is the rest of the story "

Well my Winkless book is on the way. I love reading that kind of stuff especially from the old school.I played it for a little over a hour on my table tonight with a 500 buy in 10 flat bet with 20 odds 18 on the six and eight. It is not for the faint of heart bettors I ended up $21. With limited knowledge of his thoughts as in how much to place bet and when to increase the come and pass line I will wait to pass judgement.I do agree with thnick the Road Gambler did do very well with his strategy on a place bet and one come with max odds on random rollers. I going to give that a try while we are in this down time to see if I have a large enough bankroll to make it work as well. Thanks to all for your thoughts,posts and thanks irish for starting this conversation.
Cheers
Grinder

Inherent in these statements is the necessity of not making "in stone" statements such as you "will" lose. Now..You may lose. You will most likely lose. However, I can absolutely guarantee one or the other will happen if you play. The house has these games because there is a higher probability of you losing the longer you play. But you can also win a ton..which there is a high probability you will give back and thereby aid in buying cement and steel to build more of these places where you have the high probability of losing. Yeah..I'm sitting here too like everybody.

If you can't buy the 5/9, vig on win, or the 4/10 for that matter, Vegas has you by the balls. pass line, 6&8 your only smart alternative. Or go to Mississippi.

Grinder: You'll be the third person to read that great book. I am amazed that craps folks spend a lot of bucks on books but either overlook that one or do not know it exists. I bought it when it first came out in the early eighties and really did not understand it until I started with DI in 2000-2002 or whenever it was. Keep in mind he is very cynical. He wrote for that great magazine now deceased, "Gambling Times." Another author for them was Doyle Brunson. But, the earthquake killed them.

This is a cool thread...
There was once a time when I was pretty good at Math, and probability...
My particular field does not really have a big need for these skills, and graduating nearly 40 years ago...
That part of my brain kinda shrunk...(I do not make as much testosterone either)...I can get meds for that.

So, I tend to accept the principles, and go on, since I have learned that my math does not suffice.

Irish, you have the ability to be an incredible teacher.

Memo

Thanks SHOOTITALL, now I'm really looking forward to getting it. It should be showing up in a few days.
Cheers
Grinder

Irish.

House advantage (HA) is not calculated from wins or loss... It is the gap between the mathematical fairness of the bet and how much casino pays you back for a winner. Odds have 0 HA cuz they are paid at true odds. Aka 3:2 five & nine and so. HA is the difference between 3/2 and 7/5 payout. 4%.

At least with the come bet. You can go higher than the table max. nice if you have the bankroll for it or good roll and work your way up to it.

Irish, the calculations are above my pay grade but if the 5/9 paid true odds I would bet them. The HA would be zero and I fall into that category do you really need to know how its calculated I do not. There are a lot of smart people that have already done the math for me. I just need to be smart enough to take the lowest house edge bets and that is what I do. If there where two slot machines next to each other and one paid out at 96% and the other at 98.5% that had big signs on them stating that, some people would still play the lower paying slot. Once again thanks for the post and thoughts.
Cheers
Grinder

It’s why people play 000 roulette and the Fire Bet. Can’t fix stupid.