Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I had thought about starting this topic before NFL week#1, but between our classes in Biloxi, a storm named Sally, and the 'Rona; I'm playing catch up.

We had a lot of discussions on NFL week #1 in Biloxi on how the season might play out, so lets keep it going.....

First, I'm not the pro from Dover like Jamie is for NBA, but here goes...and hopefully I'm not faded like Clay Travis....

Just like last year, I'm creating my own weekly "Prime Time Parlay" made up of the Thursday, Sunday and Monday Night prime time TV games. I started doing this last year as the books just squeeze you on these games and I wanted to play it my way, off the board, and early. Last week I rocked with a 6 point Teaser: CLV + 1, NE +10, and Da Raiders +12, it cruised This week's Prime Time Parlay is another 6 Point Teaser: MIA + 8, GB+9, and KC + 9.5. Three teamers pay 3 for 2.

Also, for Week # 3, I've played a 6 point teaser with NE-Pick, TB + 1/2, and SEA +1. In John Patrick style, I also cloned that into a four teamer by including ARIZ-Pick. Four Teamers pay 5 to 2. Since its Saturday night, I looking to add more legs, as an eight teamer pays 10 to 1. But this week has much trickier match-ups than last week. A couple of potential legs include SEA/DAL over 50.5, LAR +8, and GB+9. I already have a bunch of Indy in this weeks survivor pool; and that's too many points to deal with ( plus a money line of -650 forget it); I even thought about Stevo's Texans at +10, as even if they can't cover that, it'll be worth it in taunt-ability for the next 4-5 months.

I'm sure you guys all have your "can't miss" picks, so let's hear it!!

DN8R

PS No politics - Let's stick to football

N8
With you on all of these picks. Your Prime Time Parlay is especially juicy.
I'm a little late to this forum thread, but I diverge with your LA Lambs (but you had it). I had the Bills in the Gaming Today contest and another free contest where they barely made the spread (2.5).

The very best of luck to you.
Cheers

Thanks Bro,
ARZ was a disappointment, that’s the nature of teasers as I had a bunch of other legs that were winners. But, in Russell I trust. Let’s see if the Pack can keep it going.

I had Indy, TB, and NE in the knockout pools. Nice to get Indy behind me as I don’t trust them or Rivers in a close game

DN8R

Ill post my picks as well.

Week # 4 looks to be a bit more confusing and contrarian than Week #3. I'm in the book Monday, before MNF, staring at my Prime Time Parlay (PTP) for Week #4 { Den +3, SF -1/2, GB -1 } and thinking that I do not want to put any money on a dog with fleas game like DEN@NYJ. So I said no bet, even with a winning ticket in my pocket from Sunday. So I like those other two legs, but need a third; maybe an over - though I don't like either teased Prime Time overs. Now that line has moved with Denver announcing a rookie QB, so if teased I could get Den +6 today (more likely +5 as only the Westgate has them as Pick'em). So now the dog's flea's have the plague......

PIT/TEN & MIN/HOU are off the board.

I haven't seen anyone in the media say this yet, but remember how the first year, plus, of the Vegas Golden Knights games, the books bumped up the VGK home ice advantage not only due to the 17,000 screaming season ticket holder sellouts, but also due to what they were calling the "Vegas flu" - i.e. teams fly in and a few players hit the strip the night before leading to "hangovers" on game day. So, I'm wondering if that could be why the Saints were so lame on MNF vs the Raiders {unfortunately there weren't 67,000 season ticket holders in attendance}. This could be nothing or it could be me getting out ahead of the coming trend, especially as I like teasing the Raiders to +9, after seeing BUF let LAR back into the game last Sunday.

Theoretically I should also like teasing NE to +13, but do I want to tie this to the parlay after seeing MNF? I'm sure BB will try something against Andy, but this one's probably going to be a watcher.

So for now the PTP will likely get SEA -1/2, TB - 1.5, or ? Yeah, ? because I'd like to see what the lines do today, DN8R

I have the same picks as you. To get a little more juice I did the following parlay.

KC +10 this past Monday, parlayed with Seattle on the ML, Tampa Bay on the ML and the Lakers to win the NBA Championship.

DN8R:

You are spot on with the "Vegas Flu" hypothesis. Also, like your picks for this week. No Two Team parlay's?

For the purpose of this thread I will be following the BEARS (hometown team), RAIDER'S (Love LAS), CARDINAL's(new home) and PACKER'S (many old work buddies were big fans of Green Bay). I'll offer up a parlay accordingly.

Cardinals (-175) at Panthers (+155)
Colts (-145) at BEARS (+125) don't know what to make of this game. Turbinsky or Foles? Will go with the over.
Bills (-160) at RAIDERS (+140)
MNF Falcons (+280) at Packers (-340)

moneylines courtesy of William Hill.

THE PARLAY
Cardinals (-175) / Bears v. Panthers Over 45 (-110) / LAS Raiders (+140) / Packers (-340).
Always fire the minimum (5usd LAS or $2usd William Hill IL), looking for pizza or burger money. Parlay calculator will put this at $41.59 with a winning ticket. [all legs must win].

As always may the odds be with you.
Cheers

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:03 am I have the same picks as you. To get a little more juice I did the following parlay.

KC +10 this past Monday, parlayed with Seattle on the ML, Tampa Bay on the ML and the Lakers to win the NBA Championship.

Nice. Was the KC +10 an alternate line or a teaser? I like the Lakers as a leg; they looked good tonight, DN8R

Banker_Bro wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:15 pm For the purpose of this thread I will be following the BEARS (hometown team), RAIDER'S (Love LAS), CARDINAL's(new home) and PACKER'S (many old work buddies were big fans of Green Bay). I'll offer up a parlay accordingly.

Cardinals (-175) at Panthers (+155)
Colts (-145) at BEARS (+125) don't know what to make of this game. Turbinsky or Foles? Will go with the over.
Bills (-160) at RAIDERS (+140)
MNF Falcons (+280) at Packers (-340)

moneylines courtesy of William Hill.

THE PARLAY
Cardinals (-175) / Bears v. Panthers Over 45 (-110) / LAS Raiders (+140) / Packers (-340).
Always fire the minimum (5usd LAS or $2usd William Hill IL), looking for pizza or burger money. Parlay calculator will put this at $41.59 with a winning ticket. [all legs must win].

As always may the odds be with you.
Cheers

Having been a former LA-ite when the Rams were there the first time, I decided being a homer when you're dealing with choking dogs was a money loser; plus I hate giving 6 points and seeing the QB kneel with a 4 point lead; hence my love of teasers. Yeah its pizza money, sometimes its a jumbo pizza lol; but I'd rather trust Russell Wilson to win than to have to have him win and cover. I'm sure Wong would math it out differently but Russell -330 doesn't sound as good as a 3 for 2 teaser.

I like your Parlay, though that Over scares me a bit, good luck, N8

DN8R:
Complete agreement on Russell Wilson. Interesting factoid, as you may know, as one of the best QB's in the league, this guy has never received one vote for League MVP.

Currently, he is the even money favorite (at Circa) for this year's MVP honors.

Cheers.

DarthNater wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:22 pm

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:03 am I have the same picks as you. To get a little more juice I did the following parlay.

KC +10 this past Monday, parlayed with Seattle on the ML, Tampa Bay on the ML and the Lakers to win the NBA Championship.

Nice. Was the KC +10 an alternate line or a teaser? I like the Lakers as a leg; they looked good tonight, DN8R

Alternate line. I have been using that instead of teasers so I have a better number. Would rather pay a little more for the minus 10 then minus 9 or 9.5 with a teaser. Of course in this case I should of just taking KC +3.....lol

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:30 pm Alternate line. I have been using that instead of teasers so I have a better number. Would rather pay a little more for the minus 10 then minus 9 or 9.5 with a teaser. Of course in this case I should of just taking KC +3.....lol

I like that alt line idea a lot, good call.
And as we learned super bowl weekend, Mahones +3 is money

I also did the following. I bet the Yanks to win their series with Green Bay on the money line. Yanks won easy....now it is time to get money on Atlanta. Ranging from +7.5 up to say about +10 and hope for a middle.

Yanks are looking strong after that big ninth inning slam last night. I don’t bet baseball, sometimes think I should, ditto for basketball (though Jamie got me rolling on that). Alas bleeding Dodger Blue isn’t going to help my sport’s bankroll.

I hit on my three parlays this week, after passing on Den+3, I passed on SF and wound up with only one high confidence leg (GB) for my Prime Time Parlay, so I added TB. Then stuck with SEA -1 for a three teamer. Then bet a four teamer adding LV +9.

My wife and I went to the beach Friday so I never got my fifth teamer bet, which was gonna be Indy. Oh well. Luckily Mr Brady woke up in the second half and the Raiders covered the back door. I was tempted to take NE+18, with GB last night, but didn’t do it.

This weeks early Prime Time Parlay teaser is leaning to TB + 1/2, with SEA -1, and NO -1.5. We’ll see if the NO line moves to 7.

DN8R

I swept the board this weekend. My only loss was hedging Atlanta, anywhere from +7 to +10. Waiting on the Lakers to finish off the Heat to get paid on one bet. We had to sweat out Tampa Sunday.

Well, I wimped out a bit as have been waiting to hit the Prime Time Parlay on the line move toTB-3, but alas, here we are still at -3.5. So I opted for a 6.5 point teaser and bought the hook. So here’s my play: 6.5 Teaser TB+3, SEA -1/2, NO -1. Like Bankerbro says - it’s pizza money... a big pizza. I looked to parlay it with the Lakers but at -10000 pass. Ditto for the Dodgers over SD at -2500

Three games are off the board for Covid, still looking for more legs, DN8R

Bad night for Tampa sports teams. Still within the realm of possibility of the Rays and the Bucs to join the Lightning in a Tampa trifecta!

F Tom Brady. How do yoy lose to da Bears.

Bad beat on the Bucs play. Hard to believe the BEARS won.

Last weeks parlay was a bust. I'll try this week for better, keeping with following the four teams, though only a two team parlay.

Raiders vs. Chiefs under 55 (-110) and Cardinals (-345) vs the NY Jets.
going with the minimum, parlay calculator says 9.55 usd if the ticket cashes. Good enough for a single with cheese at IN N Out over by the Link.
Best of luck to all with your wagers.

Actually we can thank the Bears as the Tampa to win the Super Bowl line went up. That was an ugly game, but TB +3 keeps my ticket alive....

Good luck with your bets, DN8R