The What, When and How of Lay Betting

[heavy]

Reprinting this from this month's newsletter for the benefit of those of you who did not see it.

The What, When and How of Lay Betting

Pick a number that you’d like to Place Bet. Any number. Say the Nine. Not the greatest number to Place, because the house edge on the bet is 4%. Heck, the “famous gaming author” says you should never bet the five and nine because that 4% house edge is insurmountable. Hmmm. Maybe he’s not a dice controller after all. But if the 4% edge against the Nine is insurmountable, why not Lay the Nine? “Ah!” you say. The house charges a 5% commission to Lay a number. Then why even have a Lay bet on the table at all? Surely no one would ever make a Lay bet under those conditions, would they? On the other hand, we see players using Lay bets all of the time. Heck, I even use them myself. Here are some of the times and reasons players make Lay bets – and just how they do it. I’ll even hang a name on each one of these “strategies.” But first let me give those of you new to the idea of Lay bets a primer on bet size and how to make the bet.

Lay Bets are essentially the opposite of Buy Bets. So, let’s start at the outside of the betting layout and consider the Four and Ten first. You can Buy the Four and Ten at $20 for a $1 Commission and be paid 2 – 1, or $40 on the win. To Lay the Four or Ten you typically pay the $1 vig up front and Lay 2 – 1 or $40 to win $20. The correct bet is $41 No Ten. To make the bet you place $41 in the Come area in front of you and tell the dealer you’d like $41 No Four (or Ten). Simple, right? He’ll set the bet up. Like a Place Bet or Buy Bet, you have control over the Lay Bet and can take it down at any time. Unlike the Place Bet and Buy Bet, the Lay Bet works on the Come Out, so if the Seven shows on the Come Out your Lay Bet wins! Nice!

The Five and Nine pay 3 to 2 if bought, which rarely happens except in Mississippi. You Lay 3 to win 2 on the Don’ts, so you’d Lay $31 No Five or Nine including the $1 vig.

The Six and Eight are a little tricker because of rounding and the fact that the casinos don’t keep half-dollars on the table to give you a correct payoff. You’ll just have to remember this one. The Lay is $24 to win $20 so the correct bet is $25 no Six or Eight.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way let’s look at those betting strategies. Here are a few that come to mind. I’ll also include a few recommended by some members of the Heavy’s Wrong Way Craps Group on Facebook this past week as well.

The $25 DP Partial Hedge Lay Bet. This is really the most common Lay Bet I see, and most frequently you’ll see players toss out $41 No Four. Don’t ask me why they always seem to go for the No Four Bet. Maybe they just like the way it rolls off the tongue. Maybe it’s just a matter of confirmation bias on my part. It certainly seems like a common choice, though.

One of the problems with this particular hedge be is that many players get weak in the knees when it comes to risking $41 to hedge $25. The next think you know they’re tossing out a $5 Hard Four to hedge the $41 No Four and reduce the number of ways they can lose that entire $41 to two. That’s what I refer to as “hedging your hedges,” and to me it’s a sure sign of “scared money.” And frankly, if you’re scared of losing a $25 flat bet you probably shouldn’t be betting at that level to begin with.

Personally, if I were taking this approach to hedging, I’d likely opt out on the No Four and No Ten bets and to with a Lay bet on the Five or Nine. My risk factor is reduced down to $31 instead of $41. Yeah, the dice can beat me four ways instead of three ways, but it’s a risk I’d be willing to assume.

Laying a Lost Number. Admittedly, I’ve seen this strategy before, but I was surprised when I saw it crop up again in the Wrong Way Craps Group last week. A “Lost Number,” or what I sometimes refer to as a “Prodigal Number,” is akin to the Prodigal Son in the Bible. It’s a number that just disappears. Let’s say that number’s name is Nine. Old Nine wanders off with a couple of sheep, a sandwich and a goatskin full of wine and we don’t see him again for 68 rolls of the dice. Then all of the sudden the Prodigal Nine rolls. What the hell do we do now? I had my Nine up there waiting on him to come home for 32 rolls before I took the tent down and put the chips back in my rack. I used those chips on the Eight, which has been hitting like Samson banging Delilah. So now the Nine has returned to the game and what do you do? Some theorists believe that the Nine just stopped by to refill his goatskin and he’s headed out again. It’s time to Lay the Nine for $31 or $310 or whatever number fits your lifestyle. What do I think of that? It’s a strategy. It’s no better or worse than any other. Which gets me to my next Lost Number play.

Lay the Point after a Lost Number Rolls. No here’s a play I CAN get behind under one condition. That the player is a dice influencer. Here’s why. When a player gets into a rhythm he tends to start tossing repeating numbers over and over. His hand may be rich in fives, eights, and tens. He may toss a few fours, sixes and horn numbers, but mostly it’s fives, eights, and tens over and over and over. You look at the layout and you see those numbers piled high with chips and the Hard Eights and Hard Tens are stacked four inches deep. But the Nine is a ghost town. No nines are rolling. Then all of the sudden that nine rolls. To me, if this guy is a dice influencer it says something MAY have just gone wrong with his toss. I look at the shooter and try to gauge the look in his eye to see if I see a flicker of doubt in his eyes over the result of that roll. And if it’s there – I’m going to call my bets off and Lay the Point. If the point is Five then it’s $31 or $62 or whatever No Five. I don’t make a big deal about it. I’m not loud about it. I don’t try to distract the shooter. I simply make my bet, then stand back respectfully and wait for a decision. If the shooter doesn’t seven out within two rolls, I take the Lay Bet down and get back in the action.

The DiceTrkkr Disturbance in the Force Play. My late friend DiceTrkkr was a former casino dealer and life long Dark Side player. He had many plays he shared with others, but one of his most aggressive – and effective – was one I’ll refer to as his Disturbance in the Force Play. He would always wear a vest with multiple pockets in it when playing. In one pocket he carried $4100 with a rubber band around it. In another he carried $3100 and in the third he carried $2500. In his pants pocket he carried $1000, which he bought in with when he played. While at the table he would make occasional small Don’t Come bets (rarely Don’t Pass bet) and Lay Bets. But he was always waiting for a player to catch a good hand, and for that hand to get long in the tooth. Then, if certain negative indicators occurred, he would jump into action. Negative indicators included such things as a cocktail server asking the shooter if he wanted a drink, dice flying off of the table, a new player buying in mid-roll, or an argument breaking out at the table over a payout. If any of these events occurred DiceTrkkr would reach into the appropriate pocket, depending upon the point, pull out the cash and toss it onto the table and call out his Lay bet. “$4100 No Four.”

At that point everything would stop at the table. The boxman would have to count out forty-one one-hundred-dollar bills and drop them in the box. Chips would be counted out and the big Lay Bet set up. And of course, the shooter would have to stand there and watch all of this while waiting for the dice. The shooter rarely got beyond the next roll. DiceTrkkr would collect his $2000 win and head home for the day. Yes, there were days when he got tagged for $4100, $3100, of $2500, but he had more winning sessions than losing – and in the end that’s what it’s all about.

Laying the Last Number on Carnival Bets. This one used to bother me until I sat down and did the math on how many times I’d have walked away with a bigger win by Laying the last point on either the All Tall Small/Bonus Bet or the Fire Bet than I did by not Laying it. Since then I’ve been a die-hard Last Number Layer. The concept is fairly simple. Let’s say you are on an All Tall Small table that pays 35 – 1 for the Small and Tall and $175 for the All. You have $5 across on the bet. You’ll win $175 plus $5 or $180 on the Small and Tall for $360 total and $875 plus $5 or $880 for the All. Let’s say you’ve hit the Small and been paid on that. You need the Nine to hit the Tall and All. That will pay you an additional $1060. You can gamble on hitting the Nine and winning that $1060. That plus the $180 you’ve already locked up will make your total payday $1240. OR you can Lay the Nine for $310. If you miss the Nine you’ll lock up an additional $190 net of the vig, for a $370 win. If you hit the Nine and the full ATS you’ll still net $930. Which do you want? It’s up to you. I tend to err in favor of reduced variance and more consistent wins.

Lay – Place Bet Hybrids. This is, in a sense, a spin off the One Hit – Can’t Miss play we discuss so often in the Wrong Way Craps Group on FaceBook and on Heavy’s Axis Power Craps Forum on-line. The concept is fairly simple. You hedge Place Bets on the Six and Eight with Lay Bets that have payoffs of approximately the same value. The problem with this strategy is that you have to Lay significantly more than the Payoff, so you never can quite replicate the One Hit – Can’t Miss concept.

For the sake of this example we’ll assume we’re at a Vegas table with $15 minimums, which are readily available around town these days. A player might play $24 each on the Six and Eight while partially hedging that with $51 No Ten. Now there’s a new number for those of you who are dipping your toes into Lay betting for the first time. While the most commonly accepted Lay Bet for the Four and Ten is $41 to win $20, most casinos will let you Lay up to $50 on the Four and Ten for a $1 Commission. For the sake of this example we’re going to push the Lay bet up to $50.

Your maximum sevens exposure at this point is $24. If the Seven rolls you lose $48 from the Six and Eight Place Bets, but you win net $24 from the Lay Bet. But your exposure to the Ten is $51. You can always partially hedge that with a $7 Hard Ten if you want, but you’re back to hedging your hedges, and you remember what I said about that earlier. Personally, Laying the Four and Ten to hedge the Six and Eight is too rich for my blood. If I were going to take a Hybrid approach to betting craps, I’d stick with One Hit – Can’t Miss and Play the Don’t Pass with equally sized Place Bets on the Six and Eight.

So there you have it – a Lay Bet Primer and a look at some of the more common approaches to Lay Betting – as well as some exotic ones. Can you think of any other ways to approach the game from the Lay side? We’d like to hear from it on the Axis Power Craps Forum and on Heavy’s Wrong Way Craps Group on Facebook right now!

[Jeff40]

what the difference between a lay bet and place bet to lose. They have both on that electronic craps.

[Tgold]

Hi Heavy. Thx for reposting the above. One of my go-to strategies upon my entrance to a game--is to collect a few data points and look for an opportunity to Lay the 6 OR 8.

Hi Jeff40. re: thoughts on Place-To-Lose vs Lay on electronic craps.

On the electronic craps(e.g., Shoot To Win Bubble Craps) it is slightly more favorable for us to wager PlaceToLose vs Lay when betting a 7 to show before a 6 or 8. The NET payout for the LAY is ~~ 0.79xx* after the 5% commish for the Lay. Whereas the NET payout for a PTL is 0.80(4:5). This slightly more favorable payout is only when doing the PTL on 6or8, not the other box#s.

*0.79xx :I cant recall the exact xx, though I do know it is less than PTL payout of .80
**Aruze can program machines to different min/max so Im assuming they could make payouts vary form casino to casino. Though all the machines Ive seen payout as indicated above.
***IMO the STW bubble craps outcomes are not random. Also, its my understanding the casinos get to classify them as slot machines.

Continued success,

[Jeff40]

Actually they have that bet on single dealer crap game.

[darkstar]

....pull out the cash and toss it onto the table and call out his Lay bet. “$4100 No Four.”

At that point everything would stop at the table. The boxman would have to count out forty-one one-hundred-dollar bills and drop them in the box. Chips would be counted out and the big Lay Bet set up. And of course, the shooter would have to stand there and watch all of this while waiting for the dice. The shooter rarely got beyond the next roll

legend. may that Sith Lord continue disturbing the force for the young apprentices