Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I actually came up with this idea after studying some of the material that DarthNater presented at the Right or Wrong Weekend class in Vegas this weekend. He's discussed "Big Steve's Yellow Chip" play at the last few classes, but this was the first time I realized what it really was. It was basically Sam Grafstien's Converted Come Bet Strategy flipped to the Dark Side.

In the Converted Come Bet Strategy Grafstein waits until a number rolls, then he Place Bets that number. The theory is that he did not like contract bets, and he didn't like even money bets. So, he'd wait until the number rolled and Place it. Then if it rolled again the same $10 bet that would be paid at even money if it were a Come bet would be paid $14 - $18 (on outside numbers) if it were a Place Bet. Makes sense to me.

So why not do a Converted Don't Come Bet. Wait until a number rolls, then Lay Bet that number. Don't Lay the six and eight - only Lay the Outside numbers. Keep the math working on your side more that way. I know, I know. I can hear it now. The crowd that says "I don't want to bet more to win less. I'd RATHER have a flat bet that pays even money on the Don'ts then to Lay the number. Okay. Then think about this from the right sider's point of view. If you bet the six and eight only on the righty side and the seven shows how many rolls does it take to recoup that lost wager next time around? The answer? 1.71 hits. Call it two hits. And if the seven shows THEN? You're back to being down two hits again because all THAT did was get you back to even. God forbid you were betting the Iron Cross and the seven showed. It takes an average of 5.37 rolls to recoup from that roll - and that's even worse than trying to recoup from the six and eight loss. Why? Because you're doing exactly what you accuse the Dark Sider's of doing. You're risking more to win less. On the Iron Cross you may be risking $85 inside plus $15 in the Field - $100 to win between $10 - $40. You're risking more to win less. Hey, you might consider playing the right side.

In any case, there's a strategy out there for everyone. I hope this one works for you.

IMO..wait until the outside number rolls..then wait one roll before laying it. Absolutely no scientific proof it helps, but I just hate getting bullfrogged.

thnick wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:09 am IMO..wait until the outside number rolls..then wait one roll before laying it. Absolutely no scientific proof it helps, but I just hate getting bullfrogged.

LOL, this is probably where Irish would have ragged on you for waiting, especially after you agree there’s no proof - while I agree there’s not a necessity to rush, we do have the math on our side to lay any number any time as soon as we want. That is, of course, if you’re comfortable with your view that the table is trending cool. Trending cool helps, but Yellow Chip Steve doesn’t have triggers - he dives in right after the first
outside number after the point. He doesn’t believe in DI. But I do, so watching the shooter for two tosses will tell you if they are knowledgeable. Green light for flingers.

DN8R

Yeah..well Irish is persona non grata, but I never minded his correctives of me and I kind of
enjoyed his grounding in reality. I thought his desire to ball kick some players and kind of haul them off to a Maoist type verbal re-training camp..well..y'know. That was tiresome. I don't know Yellow Chip Steve. I've read his method and
thankfully don't have to suffer his losses. I have seen to many flingers make point after
point..the outside ones as well as the inside to jump in no ten or nine. I do prefer $5 Bill's
wait for the eight or the lost number of DiceTrkkr..and trending cool where if yr. tracking rolls in a book sevens are coming in early. If you attempt a vertical line down the right edge of the tracked rolls and you get something like this (/)..go for the no.

Wait until a number rolls, then Lay Bet that number.

If you wait until a number rolls and then lay a bet on that number, why not just put a DC bet out and let it move to that number and get 1 for 1 on the bet instead of something less than 1 for 1? You have the risk of the 7 or 11 knocking the DC bet off, but assuming we are playing the don'ts because the table is cold, then why not. I think I'd like to play a three point molly but on the dont side instead. If the bet moves to a 6 or an 8, then just place that number if I'm not feeling comfortable leaving it out there on those numbers.