Strategy Time - Grafstein's Pensioner's PLay

[heavy]

Time to talk about something "old school," and today I think it's going to be Sam Grafstein's "Pensioner's Play." The Pensioner's Play is essentially a grind strategy for old farts on a limited income to play while enjoying a few comped drinks, maybe scoring a comped lunch, and perhaps locking up a day's wagers in the process. And none of that "never drink while you're playing" stuff today. There's nothing wrong with an adult having an adult beverage as long as you don't drink to excess. By excess I mean drinking to the point that the alcohol clouds your judgement when it comes to your betting. Otherwise, enjoy that White Russian - or whatever your beverage of choice may be. Now on with the Pensioner's Play.

The play begins with you charting for a cold or trending cold table. Then you place ONE unit on the Don't Pass. Parlay come-out craps numbers. In the Heavy version we'll allow you to replace ONE Don't Pass knocked off by a natural. If you get knocked off of a second bet you wait for the next shooter. However, today we're playing the Grafstein version, so if you get knocked off by a Come Out seven or eleven you stop betting and wait for the next shooter.

Once you get a Don't Pass bet establish you follow it by a ONE unit bet on the Don't Come. That's the strategy in a nutshell.
This play has a strict money management limit of 18 units per session, so for a $10 game you'll have a $180 buy in and you start with 3 units in hand to potentially bet one unit at a time until you complete the 18 unit cycle.
Let's run through the rules again by the numbers.

1. Should the first roll be a 7/11 – stop and wait for the next shooter
2. Should a 2, or 3 rolled the win should be parlayed
3. Any box number establishes the DP wager and triggers a one unit DC bet
4. Your limit is ONE loss per shooter. Say after winning the DP & DC you receive 4 units total, then lock up the 1, and use the three for the next shooter.
5. After playing thru the 18 units, if you have a total greater than 18, start again with 18; otherwise find another table.
That's it. The Grafstein Pensioner's Play. It's as true of a Grind strategy as you'll find.

Now what are the Heavy mods?

The basic rules still apply. However, my initial Don't Pass wager would be one and a half units.

1. My initial Buy In and Total Risk would be $250.
2. On a $10 Table that would be $15. My DC bet that follows would then be $10, giving me a total off $25 in Don't action.
3. Instead of Parlaying on the 2 and 3 I could increase my bet by ONE unit to $20 on the Don't Pass and lock up $10.
4. As with Grafstein's move, should I win both my DP and DC bets ($25 total) I would lock up $25 and use the remaining $25 for my next bet.
5. After playing ten hands (all of my $25 units) if I have more than $250 I continue to play at that table. Otherwise I change tables or end the session and change casinos.

That's it. My changes are basically geared at getting more action on the table while hedging my Don't Come bet against a second roll seven to guarantee a small win at that point as opposed to a push.

Thoughts on this play? Would you make any "tweaks" to the Pensioner to improve it or make it your own without completely abandoning its basic principles? Let us know?

[220Inside]

How about if you get a come out winner on the DP, in addition to bumping one unit, you also bump the DC one unit? Basically keep a 1 unit hedge difference between the DP and DC.

Assume that if you get multiple come out winners on the DP, you would bump by one unit each time?

If you get a craps number tossed on the DC, what is the move? Rack it entirely?

If the DC gets knocked off with a yo before traveling, do not replace?

[220Inside]

One other corner case. If the DP point is bullfrogged, do you call no action on the DC and wait for the next shooter or let it travel?

[heavy]

One other corner case. If the DP point is bullfrogged, do you call no action on the DC and wait for the next shooter or let it travel?

I would never "no action" a DC bet that had traveled. However, depending on what the point was - I might Place it. Much would depend on my impression of the shooter. In these cases the math immediately starts playing in my head. Let's say the point is the 9. The shooter is going to lose that bet 2 out of 3 times over the long run. He's just won it twice. The odds of him winning it a third time technically have not changed in the craps universe. However, if you look at it mathematically, the odds of him tossing three 9's in a row are extremely slim. Something like .0354% if my "it's been a long day already and it's not even five o'clock" math is working okay. That's not 3.5%. That's .0354%. I put that somewhere between slim and none. Nevertheless, I've lost a hell of a lot more money on the Don'ts on the 5 and 9 than I have have on any other numbers, so who knows?

[220Inside]

One other corner case. If the DP point is bullfrogged, do you call no action on the DC and wait for the next shooter or let it travel?

I would never "no action" a DC bet that had traveled. However, depending on what the point was - I might Place it. Much would depend on my impression of the shooter. In these cases the math immediately starts playing in my head. Let's say the point is the 9. The shooter is going to lose that bet 2 out of 3 times over the long run. He's just won it twice. The odds of him winning it a third time technically have not changed in the craps universe. However, if you look at it mathematically, the odds of him tossing three 9's in a row are extremely slim. Something like .0354% if my "it's been a long day already and it's not even five o'clock" math is working okay. That's not 3.5%. That's .0354%. I put that somewhere between slim and none. Nevertheless, I've lost a hell of a lot more money on the Don'ts on the 5 and 9 than I have have on any other numbers, so who knows?

Yes, I realize that generally a DC bet should always be allowed to travel. But for this grind play where one of the criteria is to not lose more than once per shooter is why I posed the scenario. You lose the DP bet, for your one loss for that shooter, but the DC bet wants to travel to that number you just lost on.

[DarthNater]

Yes, I realize that generally a DC bet should always be allowed to travel. But for this grind play where one of the criteria is to not lose more than once per shooter is why I posed the scenario. You lose the DP bet, for your one loss for that shooter, but the DC bet wants to travel to that number you just lost on.

Let it travel, it has the advantage now. If you’re bereft with sorrow over the loss of the DP then lay some odds on that DC. Yeah I know it’s more units too, but if TUMA is the alternative then you’re gonn miss a lot of transition opportunities

This is where Grafstein breaks down as now that we have games with 5x, 10x,or even 100x odds, his idea to stack a winner as in some of his other don’t plays lay more odds since his flat has doubled isn’t the best. Bullfrogs happen, let that DC travel.

I never stack a DP or DC natural winner. That bet has just beat an 8 to 3 disadvantage, why would you expose you flat and the just won bounty both to that 8 to 3 hammer? Grafstein does and be acknowledges its gambling.

I think the Heavy 1.5 unit DP with the one unit DC plays better in this era than Grafstein, even though you are exposing that heavy DP to that 8 to 3 hammer.

DN8R

[stratocasterman]

Not to hijack the actual Grafstein's Pensioner's Play here but, I like to play a Fibonacci prog on the DP. That way I seem to always make up for the 7/11 knock offs that nearly always occur. It seems to give me much better chances for an overall Win.

[DarthNater]

Not to hijack the actual Grafstein's Pensioner's Play here but, I like to play a Fibonacci prog on the DP. That way I seem to always make up for the 7/11 knock offs that nearly always occur. It seems to give me much better chances for an overall Win.

Strat,
Nice to hear from you, hope you are well

Do you plays Heavy’s Fibo: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 or a flatter variant? DN8R

[stratocasterman]

Hey DN8R! Nice to see hear you and hope all is well. I'm doing great but, still no casinos since March for us in Manila (recently - limited invites only for whales). From what I gather, US casinos are shutting down some again.

Yes, I use Heavy's Fibo. Seems to do very well at the Baccarat tables as well.