The Lay Bet Hedge for DI's

[heavy]

While I'm continually surprised at how few DI's are willing to even consider playing the Don'ts, it seems to me somewhat illigocial that most DI's give no thought to Lay Betting as hedges when shooting from the right side. Allow me to look back on the recent PUG trials to support my thesis. Looking at PUG #11's final results, he had an SRR of 7.83 using the 54 54 hardway set. But he had a disadvantage of 1.53% on the 10. While this is not a statistically huge disadvantage, it's enough for me to consider that it might be worth this player making at least some sort of Lay bet on the 10 to hedge his Place bets on more profitable numbers.

PUG user 6 had a whopping 10.75 SRR but was at a disadvantage on the point of 5. Again, exploitable.

PUG user 2 had an SRR of 8.0 and a significant disadvantage on the 4.

PUG User 9's SRR was just 5.38, but we could switch his set and bring it up to 6.97. Even so, he came up significantly short on 8's, of all things.

My point is - if you have a number you don't roll - why waster your time making a bet on it you're unlikely to win. Wouldn't it make more since for someone who never rolls the 5 to play $30 each on the Six and Eight and to Lay the 5 for $62 as a partial hedge?

Can anybody think outside the box or is everyone locked into playing the same old strategy you've been playing for the last umpteen years?

[memo]

While I'm continually surprised at how few DI's are willing to even consider playing the Don'ts, it seems to me somewhat illigocial that most DI's give no thought to Lay Betting as hedges when shooting from the right side. Allow me to look back on the recent PUG trials to support my thesis.

PUG user 6 had a whopping 10.75 SRR but was at a disadvantage on the point of 5. Again, exploitable.

My point is - if you have a number you don't roll - why waster your time making a bet on it you're unlikely to win. Wouldn't it make more since for someone who never rolls the 5 to play $30 each on the Six and Eight and to Lay the 5 for $62 as a partial hedge?

Can anybody think outside the box or is everyone locked into playing the same old strategy you've been playing for the last umpteen years?

Great points Heavy,
All of this stuff in new and interesting...

I believe war gaming is definitely in order..
How much and of what character does the information manifest in the casino....and which casinos..and tables?
Off the bat, with Pug6.. I am thinking that the SRR may vary somewhat, but stay relatively high (my guess based on who I think it is)
However, who is to say that while the individual edge(s) may 'trend' the same, the exact numbers may vary. I would be looking at what the trend is at the moment and place (table). Similar to.. 'See a horn bet a horn'.

With an SRR and Chi score like that, one can expect some long hands (hopefully)..
In long hands, 5's will occur. I certainly would try a come out No5. Not so sure I would do it continuously without a trend showing beforehand...Take a medium hand of 20 tosses. One would be better off betting on the 5 or not betting on the 5 at all, than laying it. Conversely, If Pug6 is having a bad day or fighting a table...It may then, be a time to lay that 5.
Similar discussion can be made about all of your examples.

I'm not locked in...I think there is a lot to explore here. And as time goes on we will validate it to a greater or lesser degree. Something I am looking forward to.

Memo

[House of Orange]

Been looking at some casino BT files. If I were to marry the don’ts, I would have between a 54-60% win rate. No way that happens on the pass line. What will it take to buy the engagement ring?

[Moe Bettor]

That's pretty good. As long as the wins are bigger than the losses..your Ferrari awaits. The problem, as in trading, is the win/loss ratio. Two bets on the table means you are betting more to win less. So..hey..with another shooter besides yourself just put $35 on the five or nine and wait. And when you shoot..money on the DP, no odds, no other bets?

[House of Orange]

Yes, the Ferrari depends on the negative progression, D'Alembert, single lay odds. No other bets, the Spirit of Dylan Freak comes over you, but then again he doesn't shoot. Work in progress. Be at the jewelry store in Biloxi shortly.

[DarthNater]

I’m more and more looking at this play, as I’ve been tinkering with my recently dubbed Shocka set ( from my Coaster Column) on the crapless table. It spins out 2s, and lots of 3s & 11s. Recently I was laying the four and banging WOTCO Extremes.

Turns out I dodged a bullet that day as in recent validation tossing it is four rich on my table but the five is fast asleep. This is like a double positive as now I can lay $90 to protect $60 of extremes working on a $15 table, vice laying the 4 for $100 to protect $45 in bets. I’ve wargamed it now so I lay the 5 for $120 which let’s me root for the seven and quick net win.

DN8R

[rhythm roller]

DN, so lay the 5 for a few tosses or throughout the hand? Just trying to understand the concept further. In my mind it seems the lay should come down after the Right Side bets are paid for but not sure how it should really be thought out. Thanks!

[DarthNater]

DN, so lay the 5 for a few tosses or throughout the hand? Just trying to understand the concept further. In my mind it seems the lay should come down after the Right Side bets are paid for but not sure how it should really be thought out. Thanks!

Yes, I pull the lay after I'm at breakeven, or one after breakeven, depending on my toss and the bet amounts, DN8R

[MrLucky]

Been looking at some casino BT files. If I were to marry the don’ts, I would have between a 54-60% win rate. No way that happens on the pass line. What will it take to buy the engagement ring?

Spend a weekend winning 50-75% of your buy-in every weekend.

Ya just have to have thick skin

[MrLucky]

DN, so lay the 5 for a few tosses or throughout the hand? Just trying to understand the concept further. In my mind it seems the lay should come down after the Right Side bets are paid for but not sure how it should really be thought out. Thanks!

Yes, I pull the lay after I'm at breakeven, or one after breakeven, depending on my toss and the bet amounts, DN8R

Question:

1. Instead of laying the 5 on the come-out why not just hop the 7's for 5 each?
2. If you lay the 5 and it gets hit on the come out how do you account for that - do you hop the 5 for $5/each to fully hedge?

[DarthNater]

Mr L,
Sure you could hop, but the original premise of this thread is laying a number that is your least expected result for a few tosses while hopefully getting hit(s) on your most expected numbers. The question could become how many times do you hedge hop?

I occasionally record live results and it can be interesting to examine post session since many venues differ from my practice table, sometimes the results confirm and some times they show different distributions than expected, DN8R