Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hey all, new guy again. Been playing craps about 5 yrs seriously now and was wondering how your betting goes, start table minimum and press or start say, 120 across and regress after hitting. Of course I'm talking place bets only.
I'm the table minimum and press on 2nd hit. Take 3rd press 4th so on until I get that gut feeling big reds coming or ride it out til the end.
I have never went the other way, starting high and regress after a hit or two.
Done a test on the home table these past few days and by the outcome on it I'm sick to see how much I haven't won because of my betting styles.
So what type of better are you? Get your money back 1st and press or go straight for the bigger winnings?

BB, This is a foundational issue with successful craps plays. If tossing can be described as technical physics, betting is "art" pure and simple. You are correct that your gut and your practice are the sources of your sense of hitting or regressing and ultimately taking bets down. This will become easier to sense on yourself when you have the dice or you are playing with others who you know. A note about the crew associated with APC and Mr. Haltom, we can "sense" when they are having good tosses and that is again our gut feeling. When betting on random rollers (Randies) that is a "craps shoot" (pun intended). With Randies, I tend to dip a toe into the bet and not hit at each toss. I lose most of my money betting on those folks. Most of them blast the dice down to the back wall and by our understanding of dice odds, man that 7 has a high probability of showing.

Now, probably the most important success lesson you will learn reading these forums is to press when it feels right and do it aggressively during those magical moments. But, alert yourself to the real possibility of regressing as hand go longer and longer. Listen BB this is not an easy decision. When tossing with some of these APC folks they can toss amazingly long hands. However, you have to regress and let it rebuild. You've got to take some money off table before the sheriff shows. We learn to do this even if the hand continues. We are not regressing to zero. You might hit up 10-16 units successfully. Now, tell the dealer, "Take me down to 6 units on the "box number". It is a challenge to decide to do. But if you don't press you don't make money and if you don't regress you will spend that money.

Good luck to you. I suspect you are on your way to making some nice money, nice friends, and nice times with both those things.

skasower

Thanks for the reply professor katfish. My time at the table with me shooting is a come out 6 or 8. Place the 4 and 10 for 25 each. Try to knock the lights out of the 4 and ten. Take my 1st hit, I'm even money on place bets. Press the 4 and 10 a quarter each next hit. Then press take press take. If I'm not hitting them and say 5 and 8 I move my money to those numbers.
What I guess I was wanting to know is if anyone has done both ways. Started small and built up your bets and started large and regressed to keep your bankroll. If I'm looking for a bigger return in thinking start larger and regress. The start small and press takes a fairly good hand to build a good amount of money on the table. Say you're looking at a 15 to 20 roll with repeatedly hitting same numbers. But the larger bet with regression you could be off the table in 5 or 6 hits.

Short answer. Both.

Much of HOW I press and which numbers I press depends on the shooter. If I know the shooter and what numbers they typically toss then I'll jump on those numbers immediately. Let's say Bankerdude is tossing from straight out. I immediately bet even numbers, even though I KNOW he's going to toss some fives and nines with his go-to crossed sixes set. Why? Because I've seen him nail those repeater bets on the even numbers too many times.

When he has the dice I'm going to "double up" on the four and ten every time it hits. So think in terms of 25 - 50 - 100 - etc. Okay, I'll admit that the greed factor kicks in after 100 and I go direct from there to 250, then 500 - 1000 - then 2500 - 5000. You get it. But you'd do fine just doubling up every hit. I do not regress off the four and ten UNLESS there is, as DarthNater would say, a disturbance in the force. Then I might reduce my bet size by 50% or so.

On inside numbers, I typically power press the first number that hits the first time it hits. I do not press any other inside number - or THAT inside number - until all of my bets are paid for. Let's say it's an eight that rolls first and I have $18 on it. I drop $3 and power press to $42. My other inside numbers are sitting at 15 - 18 - 15. My initial inside action was $66. I have to collect $66 before I can press anything else. One hit on the pressed up eight pays $49. I'm damn near there. If I get a $21 hit on any other number I'll have collected $70 total. Now I can press the next number that hits and I'm off to the races with a collect then press on every other hit routine. Regressions, again, are typically tied to a "disturbance in the force." However, when the "conservative" bug is up my ass I'll set specific levels where I'll regress. If I look down and see I have a total of $400 plus on the inside I might regress to $220 inside - but if I have a number that I'm heavy on because it's been dominant then I might adjust the bet sizes somewhat. Instead of betting $60 each on the six and eight, for example, if the eight is dominant I might bet $30 on the six and $90 on the eight using the same action. Then I'll continue my press and take strategy until I get up to $600 plus on the table and regress to $440 inside taking the same approach - locking up another couple of hundred bucks. And at some point - if I feel the hand is simply getting too long in the tooth - I may just say "make it look like $160 across and start pushing out Come bets until the ugly number comes just to lock up $500 - $600 profit and stay engaged in the game.

The main thing to remember is that it's never wrong to lock up a profit - even a small one. So what if someone on the other end of the table made more than you on that hand. You have to look at the long game. Over the long run he probably lost more than you by being too aggressive.

Heavy your completely right when you said it's never bad to lock up a profit even a small 1. The thing is I had a lot of confidence about 3 years ago and could almost tell you when big red was coming. I'm slowly getting my confidence back, and with that comes more aggressive type play. Last trip was to a casino I had only been to maybe twice and never shot on the table I ended up on. Set for my 4 and 10 hit them 6 times in a roll 5 point fire bet and of course hit the repeater bet. Was even money on the 3rd toss and began take and press. Was only 28 to 30 throws but I ripped it for almost 2 grand with one set colored up after my habd was done. But still feel like I left a lot of money there due to small bets and building up. I know if you come out with 740 across or whatever big red shows up 3rd toss it would definitely hurt the bank. But if I had started that way, I'm sure my winnings would be 4 to 5 times higher. And no after my 1st toss I didn't know I was going to have a really good hand. By my 6th or 7th I realized I need to press more often

So you walk away with 2 grand in one session and you are a bit unhappy about going small at the beginning. Ok there. You played smart, IMO. Yeah..what if you go big and lose 2 grand right away? See..the thing about losing big early is you try to come back. Now let's say you come back all the way. You have wasted 2k worth of profit just getting back where you started. But..I would say a large percentage of the time people trying to get even go further into the hole. Or they get back about half and are depressed about it. And by the way..28 to 30 throws is a big f'ing hand. Nobody throws that consistently. That would mean you'd have an SRR of 28 or so. Non existant. I think you're doing just fine. Keep doing it and you'll be a millionaire.

In the absence of a like button, great post Nick.

And by the way..28 to 30 throws is a big f'ing hand. Nobody throws that consistently. That would mean you'd have an SRR of 28 or so. Non existant. I think you're doing just fine. Keep doing it and you'll be a millionaire
I might a a 25 to 30 hand in 10 rounds back about 3 to 4 years ago. Consistent I was 10 to 12 but could feel the 25 plus as it was happening. I know 28 srr is unrealistic to me anyways. It's like you said. I'm not doing bad by what I'm doing just feel like I need to be more aggressive on the bigger hands. I do have the ability to know when to walk away. So I'm not worried about chasing losses. One buy in wether that is a grand or 50 bucks I only give the casino 1 shot at getting my money. And I have a rule to never walk away from the table without at least 1 chip.

REGRESSION is AGGRESSION

There is simply no better way to be highly aggressive than to use a steep
regression.

Since BB has an incredible SSR, the best way to be more aggressive is to
simply take advantage of your skill. You should have no trouble making tons
more money using a steep regression. After several hits on your chosen place
bets, simply regress and do a pull and press from a position of profit.
If you're feeling particularly "on" with your toss, just eliminate the
regression and keep being aggressive right from the get-go.

Hi BigBear--good thread/comments everyone.

Good phrase onebok: "...There is simply no better way to be highly aggressive than to use a steep
regression..."

Pos progression(press up) vs Regression. I think both can be beneficial if used properly. Like most things re wagering it goes back to: Is it a good fit for our personality re: money, win goals, bankroll, session win goal...etc.

Personally I prefrer a pos progression because Im wagering more when Im in sync with the outcomes and losing 1.0 units per decision when Im not. Plus if I can hit 3-5 consecutive wins the compounding may spin off an amount greater than the HE(approx 1--1.4%). I dont press or regress with a goal of attacking the HE(As it is written in for most games: 12 on co is a push for dp, 3card7 pushes on B win in Bac...etc). I view HE from a perspective "the casino cant increase it").
So my pos progressions are simply a tool for getting to where Im going as quickly/efficiently as possible(IOW to my target win goal as a function of unit size and buyin).

Im not against a steep regression if thats ones preference as it accomplishes the same objective as my example above--just from a different angle.

What Im not in favor of is to change directions twice by progressing/regression/progressing again. I view that as giving back a compound to the casino.
E.G., If one presses 1, 2 , 4, 1.5, 1.5, 2, 4L ...etc I would not be in favor of changing directions after regressing to 1.5 and then going pospro again. IF I do choose to regress I prefer continuing a slow regression back toward the the initial base unit (1.0) and staying at or above that amount for the final losing wager. In craps we see win streaks of three to four IAR on line wagers/6-8/F...etc in most typical length sessions(70-75 decisions). However, we dont commonly see win streaks @ the seven to eight IAR range---or I dont.



Continued Success,