Overcoming Your Fear of Betting Bigger

[heavy]

OVERCOMING YOUR FEAR OF BETTING BIGGER

I see a lot of players step up to the table and buy in for $1000 or more. Then they'll wait for the next shooter to set a point and their first bet will be something like a $12 Six or maybe a $12 Six and Eight with a $15 Come Bet to act as a partial hedge against the second roll Seven. Now, in my mind this is a player who can afford to bet $80 to $100 or more per shooter, depending on his strategy, yet he's only willing to risk $9 - $12 in this example. In Heavy vernacular, I'd say this person has a pair of gnat balls. In this person's own language, he'd probably say he's playing it conservative, waiting to see if a hand develops. But the fact probably lies somewhere in between. The fact is this person is most likely afraid to bet bigger because he's afraid of a large initial loss he'll have to struggle to recover from. In other words - he's playing with what we often refer to as "scared money."

The problem with playing with scared money is that it makes it almost impossible to win. Small losses mount up to the point that it takes a huge win to recover, but the player is frightened to bet beyond certain levels, so as my friend Parson puts it, he doesn't have enough "paint on the brush" when it comes time to score a profit.

The key to this game is ultimately money management and discipline, and to bet less when you are losing and more when you are winning. But in my opinion you have to start out with a first bet that can give you the possibility of the win. So let's look at our player with the $1000 buy in and think what he might do in order to improve his possibilities for a win.
By breaking his bankroll down into 12 betting amounts - enough to give him around $85 to bet on each shooter on a relatively full table with 12 players - he has a number of options that can get him off on the right foot. Right off the bat I'd suggest he forget about the Pass Line and just Place Bet. He could Bet $42 each on the Six and Eight and have $84 action once the point is established. Give the shooter three or four shots at tossing a Six or Eight. If either number rolls he gets paid $50 for $1. Then he can regress his bets to $12 each on the Six and Eight and have $24 action and a $25 profit guaranteed in the rack. Or he can take it all down and have $49 profit in the rack. Or he can regress to $18 each on the Six and Eight and have a $13 guarantee in the rack. The point is, he has options. If he stays up he can say "same bet" on the next hit and increase his guarantee. Or he can Press one or both of his numbers. Or he can take a portion of his winnings out of the rack and Power Press the number that hit. Again, options. And THAT is the key to getting more "paint on the brush." Keeping those options open, and being prepared to exercise those options.

Now let's say our player has Pressed his bets back up to $42 on the Six and $90 on the Eight and he's noticed that the Nine is rolling on every fourth or fifth toss. He gets another $50 for $1 hit on the Six. Instead of Pressing the Six to $90 he might Press it to $60 and then Place the Nine for $25. He still gets a few dollars change for his rack and has spread out to the Nine. The next hit on the Nine pays $35. He Presses that number to $35 and locks up $35. Now he's set to collect $50 for $1 every time the Nine rolls again. And he's done this all without dipping deeper into his original $85 for that particular shooter. The REASON he was able to do this because he had the INITIAL "paint on the brush," that $42 Six and Eight, to get things started.

Will it work out this way every time? Of course not. You are always going to have those PSO's and short hands that will eat up your initial bets or cut short your profits, but once you get that first regression in you're in the perfect position to turn a profit, and it's all because you positioned yourself to do so from the beginning of the hand.

Real POWER when it comes to playing this game begins on the day you step OUT of your comfort zone and embrace your fears. By "embrace your fears" I mean "do the thing you are afraid of." By creating a specific game plan to do that and committing it to memory so that you do it on auto-pilot you essentially give up control of that fear over your game. No, it's not going to happen overnight. It may take months, or even years to get there. Especially if you don't play on a weekly or monthly basis like some of us. But you WILL get there over time if you work on it consistently - even if it's just in your practice sessions at home.

Serious about making changes? Write down the changes you want to make in your game and how you plan to do it. Then read your list of goals regularly - before every practice session and before every live session just to reinforce where you're trying to get to. Then when you get to the tables - do it, regardless of the results the first few times out. You'll eventually overcome the fear monster and be able to play with confidence at the level you deserve to play at. I promise.

[skasower]

Great guidance Heavy. Thanks for reminding all of us as we emerge from our Covid malaise that gnat-balls is not a bad reaction from the vaccination. Once of the great values of your classes is the time out in the casinos tossing with the students. We get to see these strategies in real time and we get to best understand why this approach produces the opportunities as the table progresses.

[chuckindice]

Great advice, Heavy. One my areas of focus this year is to be more confident in my bankroll vs each shooter. Put the money at risk and see what happens. I have struggled doing exactly what you described... keeping my bets small or not-at-all, and just slowing bleeding my bankroll over a couple hours. I know I've sat thru several onslaughts of 6/8s with only $12/$18 each, or even OFF while waiting on the eventual 7-Out. Those long runs will refill my bled-out bankroll - netting me a nice $100 win. But it could have went so much better.

[Moe Bettor]

Appreciate this great advice from Heavy. I am a proponent of the regression, but never have looked at this way to treat a $1000 buy in at granular level. I like the idea of one hit at $42. Usually I go $24 for 2 hits. The thing is, however, when do you absolutely say that this just isn't your day. After two losses at $84? At least you'll only be down a small portion of yr. $1000. This is where the ultimate discipline kicks in.

[220Inside]

I still think about the loss limit on the buy in rather than something like some number of individual losses.

[heavy]

The one warning I'll give ALL of you on this: That ATS bet will KILL your bankroll UNLESS YOU CAN HIT IT. That means you need to be using BoneTracker Extended to slush out your best sets with the highest SRR for every number so you can switch sets without fear during your hands and nail them. DarthNater is leading the way on this. Pay attention.

[HowieHops]

This is great info and food for thought Heavy. Along with the great strategies you share at the seminars it puts one to thinking how to really leverage them for maximum profit.

Hops

[HowieHops]

Heavy is what you mentioned above about the ATS bet killing your bankroll covered in another thread or can we flesh it out a bit here?

This is absolutely interesting to me since I have discovered the ATS and how setting for 7's on the come out seems to fly in the face of even betting the ATS. Maybe I am just over thinking this, but if you are pretty proficient with come out 7's it can cost you a lot of ATS money. I suppose if your Pass Line bet is as much or more than what you are wagering on the ATS then it washes. Then there is the actual hitting of the ATS numbers to complete the wager, that part I get right away.

Hops

[DarthNater]

Heavy is what you mentioned above about the ATS bet killing your bankroll covered in another thread or can we flesh it out a bit here?

This is absolutely interesting to me since I have discovered the ATS and how setting for 7's on the come out seems to fly in the face of even betting the ATS. Maybe I am just over thinking this, but if you are pretty proficient with come out 7's it can cost you a lot of ATS money. I suppose if your Pass Line bet is as much or more than what you are wagering on the ATS then it washes. Then there is the actual hitting of the ATS numbers to complete the wager, that part I get right away.

Hops

HH,
If you can throw a seven on the comeout, you can throw a horn { six ways to make a horn } on the comeout. If you're betting ATS, consider a different come-out strategy - you need to be shooting for the ATS. A pass line winner pales to an ATS side winner - it only takes 5 numbers. I like to use my 11/12 horn rich set on the comeout with a World bet, get an 11 and win on the line and now its get 4 more for the Tall and press the World. Give that some thought and practice.

DN8R

[HowieHops]

Darth, all I can say to that is YES! I am all in on wearing the ATS out.

I badly need to start tracking my rolls and get some sort of feel as what set to use.

Hops

[chuckindice]

Is there a thread specifically about betting the ATS? I've always been intrigued by people who bet it much higher than I do, and I assume there are some strategies that help you protect against its eventual drain on your bankroll if doesn't hit over your session. Do people bet the ATS every shooter or only when they are shooting?

[Big O]

Do people bet the ATS every shooter or only when they are shooting?

Betting it on every shooter is where the bankroll drain Heavy was talking about can really happen. I bet it on myself and other qualified or shooters known to me that i think have a better than average chance to hit the ATS.

Is there a thread specifically about betting the ATS

I think there are multiple threads on ATS betting. I think it is interesting to look back and see how the new developments in bone tracker and the coaster sets have changed attitudes toward the ATS. It was not long ago that a huge percentage of members were pretty anti ATS and even preferred playing places that didnt have it on the tables. Strategies and attitudes have definitely changed over the last couple of years.

[Parson]

Heavy is what you mentioned above about the ATS bet killing your bankroll covered in another thread or can we flesh it out a bit here?

This is absolutely interesting to me since I have discovered the ATS and how setting for 7's on the come out seems to fly in the face of even betting the ATS. Maybe I am just over thinking this, but if you are pretty proficient with come out 7's it can cost you a lot of ATS money. I suppose if your Pass Line bet is as much or more than what you are wagering on the ATS then it washes. Then there is the actual hitting of the ATS numbers to complete the wager, that part I get right away.

Hops

HH,
If you can throw a seven on the comeout, you can throw a horn { six ways to make a horn } on the comeout. If you're betting ATS, consider a different come-out strategy - you need to be shooting for the ATS. A pass line winner pales to an ATS side winner - it only takes 5 numbers. I like to use my 11/12 horn rich set on the comeout with a World bet, get an 11 and win on the line and now its get 4 more for the Tall and press the World. Give that some thought and practice.

DN8R

I have been pro ats since i first hit with no money on it. Last week in biloxi i hit it twice…. And hit several sides as well.

The best was i had just hit the tall, 6 was the point, need a 2 and a 5. Changed my set to a set strong on inside, hit the five first toss. Then the six ….. oh yeah this was a crapless table….. i had hit a lot of hard tens during the hand with my 2V set…. So sniping i went on the comeout with my best srr X6 …. Bingo… sniped the 2 and set as point. After the payout, same set same toss, back to back aces.

[DarthNater]

We have a couple of threads that have a lot of ATS content, that kinda got lost the past year. I just bumped them both, so we don't hijack this thread which is super important.

For ATS tactics and play - there is this thread:

http://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsfor ... f=4&t=343

For ATS stories and in casino results there are several threads, here is one I started:

https://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6690

DN8R

[Phiberoptik]

I read this post with glee. On my own, it's taken me time to realize that in order to win big at this game one of two things has to happen. One, you have to be lucky enough to step up to a table that's about to go nuclear with a hot holler and smart enough to start out with a decent bankroll and power press those hits, or number two, make those initial bets with each shooter large enough to win bigger amounts that allow you scale down your subsequent bets so you're playing with the casinso's money. Just as you pointed out; scared money will eventually get you nowhere. Good call.

[chuckindice]

I read this post with glee. On my own, it's taken me time to realize that in order to win big at this game one of two things has to happen. One, you have to be lucky enough to step up to a table that's about to go nuclear with a hot holler and smart enough to start out with a decent bankroll and power press those hits, or number two, make those initial bets with each shooter large enough to win bigger amounts that allow you scale down your subsequent bets so you're playing with the casinso's money. Just as you pointed out; scared money will eventually get you nowhere. Good call.

I resemble this remark! :-/ One of the biggest challenges on my craps journey has been getting comfortable with betting bigger with a small buy-in (I'm a low-roller, budget-wise.)

MANY TIMES, I have played conservative with a small buy-in ... and I just find myself slowly burning thru my buy-in.

On the other hand, when I play above my buy-in, I do lose it faster at times, but I also find that I can recover any losses and get in profit faster, too.

It feels like the more conservative I try to keep it, the more I end up just grinding out a loss or if I'm lucky, a small win. These days, I'd rather risk more to put myself in position to play in profit and maybe win big.

- Chris

[AllahPena]

I used to play small, play scared, etc. I've probably gone to the other end of the spectrum where I play big or don't play at all now. However, if I don't have the proper bankroll at the time for the limits I want to play I will not play under circumstances that aren't ideal. The casino has an edge over most if not all people in that they have an endless bankroll and you don't. Also there's far too many times where people eat like a bird, shit like an elephant where they have very small wins and huge losses. A lot of people have a "not afraid to lose" attitude but that's not the key to winning. You need to be unafraid to win. Big difference in the mindset. I've never won in gambling until I changed my mindset and will absolutely not gamble unless it's on my terms.

[grinder2017]

I used to play small, play scared, etc. I've probably gone to the other end of the spectrum where I play big or don't play at all now. However, if I don't have the proper bankroll at the time for the limits I want to play I will not play under circumstances that aren't ideal. The casino has an edge over most if not all people in that they have an endless bankroll and you don't. Also there's far too many times where people eat like a bird, shit like an elephant where they have very small wins and huge losses. A lot of people have a "not afraid to lose" attitude but that's not the key to winning. You need to be unafraid to win. Big difference in the mindset. I've never won in gambling until I changed my mindset and will absolutely not gamble unless it's on my terms.

How did you get to not being afraid to win mindset? I agree that that the casino edge is their unlimited bankroll. I can't swim at your end of the pool but could stand to go deeper.
Cheers
Grinder

[AllahPena]

I honestly don't know when or how light bulb turned on for me. Maybe 4-5 years ago probably. However it's not about playing "big"... it's just more about not playing on short money for whatever that may be for you. I agree I'm on a different level of sick, LOL but the best advice I can give anyone gambling is never ever play on short money. Figure out a game plan as far as how much you're trying to play unit wise and if you don't have the adequate bankroll to play correctly and comfortably then don't play. For me I know I need 300k minimum for regular craps and 500k minimum for crapless craps. If I have 150k I will not just take a shot because I know I'm essentially lighting it on fire. I see guys show up at a $25 table with $300 and they just have no chance from the beginning. Hope that helps

[Parson]

I still think about the loss limit on the buy in rather than something like some number of individual losses.

Thats always been my thinking as well.