Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

First off, I want to say thanks to Heavy for welcoming me back to the forum after a long absence. I don't even remember what my old handle was but I think it might have been this one.

Second, I've been playtesting a press method that works great in the following ways. 1. It has a good early hand return, so the guys who like to get even on their investment will like it. 2. It accelerates quickly to make more money in the longer rolls. 3. It is easy to remember the steps.

I've been calling it the 1,2,3,4,5 press, but I'm sure there is something catchier

The way I've found it works best is with starting bets of 3 or more units, which can be inside or across. Each box number has it's own press sequence, increasing 1 unit on each hit including the first hit.

With 3 units across ($96 across) the press on the 5 or 9 goes like this.

1st hit, collect $16, 1 unit press. Original bet $15, new bet $20 (15% of $106 bet exposure)
2nd hit, collect $18, 2 unit press. Old bet $20, new bet total $30
3rd hit, collect $27, 3 unit press. Old bet $30, new bet total $45
4th hit, collect $43, 4 unit press. Old bet $45, new bet total $65
5th hit, collect $66, 5 unit press. Old bet $65, new bet total $90
From here, just keep pressing 5 more units on each subsequent hit, or mix in a full press on occasion.

The 6 or 8 presses like this.
1st hit, collect $15, 1 unit press. Original bet $18, new bet $24 (14% of $106 table exposure)
2nd hit, collect $16, 2 unit press. Old bet $24, new bet total $36
3rd hit, collect $24, 3 unit press. Old bet $36, new bet total $54
4th hit, collect $39, 4 unit press. Old bet $54, new bet total $78
5th hit, collect $61, 5 unit press. Old bet $78, new bet total $108

Finally, the 4 or 10 press
1st hit, collect $22, 1 unit press (now buy the number) Original bet $15, new bet $20 (20.7% of $106 table exposure)
2nd hit, collect $29, 2 unit press Original bet $20 buy, new bet $25 buy
3rd hit, collect $34, 3 unit press Original bet $25, new bet $40 buy
4th hit, collect $58, 4 unit press Original bet $40, new bet $60 buy
5th hit, collect $93, 5 unit press Original bet $60, new bet $85 buy


The thing I really like about this press model is that it takes a MAXIMUM of 6 hits to fully pay for all the bets on the table. If you get lots of repeaters, it gets paid for even sooner. Regardless of what box numbers you hit, after 6 all bets are paid, even with an additional $10 passline bet.

It works even better for returning initial investment with a hybrid across of 3 units on the 4 and 10, and 4 units on the inside numbers. This is a weird $118 across bet, but the first hit returns are a greater percentage of the total bet spread this way.

A 6 or 8 first hit ($22 profit) returns 17.1% of total bets ($128 including $10 pass)
A 5 or 9 first hit ($23 profit) returns 17.9% of total bets ($128 including $10 pass)
A 4 or 10 first hit ($22 profit) returns 17.1% of total bets ($128 including $10 pass)

To accelerate your bets faster, with some reduction of the rapid payback feature, you can skip the 1 unit press and start with 2 units, or do only the odd presses, 1, 3, and 5

Play around with it, and see how you like it.

Psi

First off, welcome back. Secondly, thanks for jumping right in with a well thought-out betting strategy. It's much more conservative then any of my personal approaches to the game these days, and I'd tweak it a little bit for a couple of reasons. First off, I like the Five and Nine schedule just fine. The only exception would be in Mississippi where the automatic buy on the Five and Nine come into play, and you would want to take advantage of that.

On the Four and Ten, I'd keep in mind that at $20 that's going to be a Buy bet in most places. Also, remember that the Four and Ten essentially pay 2 - 1. Yeah, I know you have to pay the commission, but that's really chump change. So you can be more aggressive in pressing the Four and Ten because you make money FASTER when those numbers are hot then you do on the inside numbers.

The Six and Eight press series look fine. The only issue you're going to have is break in dealers who are going to stumble over the correct payoffs over $35, $54, and $78 bets. Trust me. I teach the Six and Eight progression in the betting strategy class and when it gets to $78 each on the Six and Eight and I ask what that pays the eyes roll back in the heads while those mental calculators are running. Not many people can just spout out $91 because they KNOW the payout. Break in dealers are no different, and these days break in dealers are everywhere.

I teach the Six and Eight progression in the betting strategy class and when it gets to $78 each on the Six and Eight and I ask what that pays the eyes roll back in the heads while those mental calculators are running. Not many people can just spout out $91 because they KNOW the payout.

First off, thank you PsiD for you progression ideas. Your strategy looks like it might be a fun approach. What I like about it is that it might keep me away from those nefarious prop bets that are so addictive.

Heavy, you bring up a really important point here that many folks don't give adequate "introspective evaluation." In English, we need to do some self evaluation on just how we think of each press and what it pays. If we start out doing the mental calculations its like counting on our fingers mentally. At 13, 14, 15, etc. units, a mental calculation fails most of us.

This self evaluation should conclude that those payouts need to be memorized not mentally calculated. This will require changing bad habits. This is a challenge for all of us.

Thanks for the feedback Heavy and Ska. I came up with this strat because I was ULTRA conservative previously and I was having trouble making money even on my good rolls. I was stuck on wanting to break even BEFORE I started pressing, which was taking 4-10 rolls which is most of the hand unless you are a very good shooter.

This strat gave me a middle ground to break my conservatism because it still allows for a quick breakeven on each hand. It is also a fairly decent grind return even on shorter hands, anything beyond a PSO gives a little back, extending the life of that bankroll. Because of this effect of early payback, it even convinced me to increase my starting bets, which makes the strat work even better as long as you have the appropriate sized bankroll to weather the bad rolls. I find 10x your starting bet per hand is a good size to work with.

Skasower, I focus more on the payout per UNIT because that is easier math. 7 units pays 49 on a 5,6,8, or 9. Same is true at any unit level, all the inside numbers pay the same. 13 units pays 91, 19 units pays 133. For complicated stuff I divide it into stacks of 10. 33 units is 3 stacks of 10 which pay 70 each, so 210 plus 3x7 (21) totaling 231.

Based on the 4/10 advice above, I have re-evaluated the pressing for those numbers. Because they hit so infrequently and they represent a small portion of the total hand usually, I figured it would be good to have a VERY aggressive press schedule for them. I present the more aggressive 4/10 press schedule to go along with the 1,2,3,4,5 inside press.

starting bet 15
1st hit, collect $17, 2 unit press (now buy the number) Original bet $15, new bet $25 (13.2% of $128 table exposure)
2nd hit, collect $23, 5 unit press Original bet $25 buy, new bet $50 buy (17.97% of $128 table exposure)
3rd hit, collect $47, 10 unit press Original bet $50, new bet $100 buy
4th hit, collect $95, 20 unit press Original bet $100, new bet $200 buy
5th hit, collect $191, 40 unit press Original bet $200, new bet $400 buy

Psi,
That's a solid 4/10 scheme. I believe his Heavy-ness goes to $250 on that 4th hit, then $500 on the next. Either way, its a nice thing!

DN8R

I focus more on the payout per UNIT because that is easier math. 7 units pays 49 on a 5,6,8, or 9. Same is true at any unit level, all the inside numbers pay the same. 13 units pays 91, 19 units pays 133. For complicated stuff I divide it into stacks of 10. 33 units is 3 stacks of 10 which pay 70 each, so 210 plus 3x7 (21) totaling 231

Thanks Psi that is a really elegant approach to the question. It is simple, accurate, and not clogged up with too much detail. Again thanks. (I plan to use the Psi betting approach next trip to Las Vegas. It looks like a smooth road. You are correct that more bankroll can definitely turn it into a thrill ride.

Yep. My 4/10 schedule is 15 - 25 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 1000 - 2500 - 5000 After that first hit from 15 to 25 it's a free bet. There's no looking back from there.

The 4/10 press schedule looks like mine

15 - 25 - 50 - 100 - 200 - 400 - 800 - 1500 - 2500 - 5000

Sometimes i go 25, 25, to start … it goes on gut or bankroll … one free bet vs two, the four and ten are both free if i collect.

Thx PsiDice
Welcome back /thx for sharing as I can tell u have put a lot of meticulous thought/planning into it.

A) I like that you designed a press regime that fits YOUR goals: "...1. It has a good early hand return, so the guys who like to get even on their investment will like it. 2. It accelerates quickly to make more money in the longer rolls. ..."

B) You clearly state ur objective: "...This strat gave me a middle ground to break my conservatism because it still allows for a quick breakeven on each hand. It is also a fairly decent grind return even on shorter hands, anything beyond a PSO gives a little back, extending the life of that bankroll..."

C) I like that you clearly understand its(press%) affect on not only your individual wagers, but also what the effect is to your overall buyin.

*I dont have anything to add as u have designed it for your needs, and u clearly have done an excellent job.

I like the sight adjustment Steve suggested as I think its always beneficial to lower the house-edge erosion to our buyin, especially when it doesnt significantly increase our likelihood of busting buyin. In this case simply increase your buyin a couple hundred if that is a concern.
IMO a $2K buyin will serve you well, and even though we will bust out occasionally, there will be many wins /won money collected prior to said bustouts. Thats just part of the game with most any wagering regime and should be understood & accepted , along with our big win sessions.

My favorite part is that your press% is an exponential increase (instead of linear) as a function of your base unit. Because for obvious reasons: The wager lost the most often is the base unit. Soultimately by doing a pos progression we are trying to replace the # of lost wagers with fewer wins(higher wins).
I find it helpful to have a predetermined wagering regime as we are more likely to follow it when the wager starts approaching higher limits. You will tap tablemax someday Im sure.

All the best/thx again for your hard work / willingness to share.