When is it time to switch bets if I'm not tossing my usual numbers?

[chuckindice]

I know Bone Tracker is helping me learn my tendencies. I've become a better bettor because of BT. Cool cool.

But in the middle of any given hand, different numbers start popping. I'm tossing a bunch of 4s ... or maybe the 8 has completely disappeared ... I remember one hand where I tossed lots of Horns and never threw a 5 or 9. Weird stuff like that where things are clearly going off-typical but the 7 is still buried.

So I start by betting my "usual way" - but when do I flip the switch? Do I wait until I toss a repeat number I'm not yet on?

Someone told me to use the Come to let my toss tell me where I'm going (3-Point Molly? - Meh). I'd almost rather just Place the number after it hits the first time.

Anyhow, just looking for some tips on how you adjust to what the table is giving you - and how long you wait to make that move?

- Chris

[skasower]

ChuckinDice,
This is an issue many of us face that begs for some wisdom. On the road to better, more accurate, on axis tosses, many of us are "sophomores." So, some great tosses get obscured by some wild random one off axis, or other idiosyncratic toss results.

I would love to hear from some of those stalwart students of DI who worked their way to increased accuracy about how they bet on their own (sometimes) wildly random tosses as they improved their accuracy.

My approach is to continue to bet like my DI chops are intact. However, if other numbers keep appearing, I would slam some chips in that direction and keep pressing those bet(s) no matter what I philosophically thought my tosses should reveal.

Good luck, may you always walk away with winnings.

[rhythm roller]

I don't have any great wisdom on this. But this is why I keep table notes after I play. Even though my numbers may not be consistent with my home results some tables do seem to have a "different" consistent number or numbers from my toss on them. Of course, this is if I am consistently hitting the same landing zone. Do you keep table notes after play? Can be good info if reviewed before replay of that table.

[chuckindice]

I don't have any great wisdom on this. But this is why I keep table notes after I play. Even though my numbers may not be consistent with my home results some tables do seem to have a "different" consistent number or numbers from my toss on them. Of course, this is if I am consistently hitting the same landing zone. Do you keep table notes after play? Can be good info if reviewed before replay of that table.

I haven't ever taken notes. Just mental notes as I review what just happened (good or bad).

- Chris

[heavy]

I don't track by writing numbers down anymore, although I do talk about this in the classes I teach. I also talk about tracking results at the table with chips in the back rail. Unfortunately, there aren't enough back rails to do all of the other stuff I like to do with back rails. LOL. So, I keep track of the rolls in my head. Here's the magic breakdown of what I'm looking for.

4's and 10's - a 4 or 10 should each roll (individually) one time in six rolls mathematically. They pay (essentially) 2 - 1 when bought. So when you Buy the Four and Ten you Buy BOTH of them because if one rolls it pays for BOTH of them. To that end, I'm looking for more then two 4's and/or 10's to roll within six rolls, and I prefer them to be rolling in close sequence. For example - 4 - 6 - 8 - 4, or 4 - 9 - 6 - 10, or 10 - 2 - 5 - 4 . . . or something along those lines. Of course, if there are three or four numbers rolled between them I'll probably still bet both, depending on the shooter. I'm looking for one more hit on either number, which will effectively pay for both bets. Them I'm off to the races.

5's and 9's. We'll use Vegas odds, not Mississippi. The 5 or 9 should roll one time in every 9 rolls. Because they only pay 7 - 5 we bet them individually instead of in pairs. I'm looking for the 5 or 9 to repeat more frequently than 1 in 8 rolls and I want them to roll more closely together than that. So I'm looking for something like 4 - 5 - 8 - 9 - 5 . . . and I'll bet the 5. I want to be there when that next 5 hits, and it's currently sequencing at a higher than expected rate. The same would go for the nine. Let's say the roll series is 6 - 8 - 6 - 9 - 9 . . . I'm quickly going up on the 9 because it's rolled twice back to back.

The 6 and 8 are never in question for me because of the low house edge of 1.51%. I simply bet them on every shooter. The odds on the 6 and 8 pay 7-6. A six or eight should mathematically show up once in every 7.2 rolls. If you're betting them in pairs you should see one or the other once every 3.6 rolls. Use that as a gauge as to whether or not they are "paying their rent." Guys who have played with me in the past have frequently heard me say (when a player is killing the Outside numbers and not rolling sixes and eights) "Bring my Six and Eight Down and Press my Five and Nine $15 each. The Six and Eight aren't paying their rent and they're getting evicted." Then I'll take the $6 change from that $18 six and eight and hop the sixes and eights because of what I call the "ironic theory of craps." You KNOW what number is probably coming next, right?

Anyway, if you want to base your timing on the math of the game instead of intuition - this is one way to approach it. Good luck. Probably the better answer is to just say, "Take me down" and wait for the next shooter.