I see the beauty and efficiency of RCs Exponential Odds Betting, but when wargaming it, frequently I would get to the point where I established a bunch of numbers, then sevened out. Having a 7 or 8 roll hand that loses $300 or more is maddening to say the least. When practicing, I kept reminding myself that RCs EOS (Exponential Odds System) offered great protection from the PSO. You break even, not to mention the CO7, which seems to haunt me like one of Snakeeye's old high school girlfriends. Still, it seems inefficient to throw all those box numbers and not get paid unless you repeat them. So I came up with a variant on the EOS that combines a mild regression with an aggressive post regression press schedule. Start with a $10 PL and $50 or $60 on each number WOTCO. AKA $324 across. Once you establish a point, replace the box number bet with 4x odds and add continuous $10 come bets. As each come bet travels begin with 4x odds. Example - you come out on an 8. Get paid $70, replace the $60 place with $40 odds, you end up racking $80. Your next 8 only racks $38, but you have to pay the piper somewhere. This is about the mildest regression possible, going from $60 place to $50 in action ($10 on PL and $40 odds). One could go further down, but its hard to make any serious money on a long hand if you regress too far. ( unless you are willing to get kamikazi with the pressing). Does this expose you to some serious pain on short hands? Yes. CO7s cost $314. PSOs cost around $245. Does this system reward you on medium hands? Yes! If you hit 4 unique box numbers, you are in the money for the hand and positioned to make a nice score. Does this earn big money on hands in the mid teens or longer? Yes! Here's the press schedule I used.
4x, 6x, 9x, 12x, 16x, 20, 25x, 30, 40x. In the one book I tried this on, my SRR ended up a pedestrian 6.49, but I made $1990 profit. I started with $5K, and was never in serious jeopardy. I did have a bunch of long hands in this book, but also had a near random amount of short hands too. I believe you need some deep pockets to spread $324 across, but in areas that allow more than 3,4,5x odds, this system is nicely efficient, assuming you toss all the box numbers and can deal with volatility. I was using the 2v set which tends to have a shotgun approach ( at least for me) when it comes to box numbers. I would imagine that I would have had some serious wins had I been able to repeat any number more than 6 times, but that never happened. I only had 2 hands that were 20 or longer, but 5 hands that were 19 rolls long. I think I had one instance where I threw 3 CO sevens in a row followed by a PSO. A $1200 drawdown in 5 rolls will test your discipline for sure. As I am still MIA from the casinos, I will continue to wargame this method and maybe find some areas to sweeten it a little, preparing for my triumphant return
Exponential Odds Variant
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Exponential Odds Variant
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Hey, it's a tough job but somebody has to do it.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
I'm going to revive this thread because of a recent discovery while practicing using RC's Exponential Odds system. This is not my varient as above, this is the original as RC published it.
Exponential Odds -Wow, is thing full of variance!
On my last book of rolls (book 6), I finished with srr of 5.45. Oh man, you don't want to be playing the EO with that kind of SRR. To be painfully exact, my starting $5K bankroll ($10 units starting at book 5) was built up to $5983 at the beginning of book 6, and finished book 6 at a paltry $2662. Talk about a miserable bunch of practice sessions....
I made some tweaks on the toss and those neccessitated some tweaks in the set. Fast forward to today, starting out at around roll 150, I had about $1500 left with srr of 4.8 something. Yeah, it was that bad. Then it snapped into place. I started having hands with repeaters, making a little headway, inching the BR up to somewhere around $2K.
Then.....Boom! A 31 roll hand.
Lots of repeaters, and Oh, did I mention I threw 11 tens? Yep, I had the 10 up to 100x odds, that's One Thousand dollars, ladies and gentelmen. I started with $50, then $60, $80, $110, $150, $200, $300, $400, $600, $800, $1000. The seven rained on my parade before I could collect the big mamoo payout. So what- after that hand, the BR is now at $6940! That's pretty powerful because the Srr is only 6.03, lol. Think about that for a moment. Any of you who have ever wargamed any rightside system. After 2 1/3 books of rolls, I am up $1940, with SRRs of 6.15 on book 5, 5.45 on book 6, and currently 6.03 on book 7. Every other method I have tried would be down a lot with those kinds of numbers. Up $1940, I kid you not.
OK here's the caveat. I hit a very statistacally unlikely number of 10s on that hand. If those were 6's I wouldn't have made that much money, but hey- stuff happens at the craps table. Weird stuff like this.
How in the world can I be this profitable (up $1940) with those shitty numbers? The answer? A few long hands; they really do make up for the short ones. The bottom line is, if you can stand the brutalization and the variance (which is significant), and you can play at a 100x odds house, the late Rapping Captain's Exponential Odds has got to be among the most powerful betting systems in existence. Thoughts?
Exponential Odds -Wow, is thing full of variance!
On my last book of rolls (book 6), I finished with srr of 5.45. Oh man, you don't want to be playing the EO with that kind of SRR. To be painfully exact, my starting $5K bankroll ($10 units starting at book 5) was built up to $5983 at the beginning of book 6, and finished book 6 at a paltry $2662. Talk about a miserable bunch of practice sessions....
I made some tweaks on the toss and those neccessitated some tweaks in the set. Fast forward to today, starting out at around roll 150, I had about $1500 left with srr of 4.8 something. Yeah, it was that bad. Then it snapped into place. I started having hands with repeaters, making a little headway, inching the BR up to somewhere around $2K.
Then.....Boom! A 31 roll hand.
Lots of repeaters, and Oh, did I mention I threw 11 tens? Yep, I had the 10 up to 100x odds, that's One Thousand dollars, ladies and gentelmen. I started with $50, then $60, $80, $110, $150, $200, $300, $400, $600, $800, $1000. The seven rained on my parade before I could collect the big mamoo payout. So what- after that hand, the BR is now at $6940! That's pretty powerful because the Srr is only 6.03, lol. Think about that for a moment. Any of you who have ever wargamed any rightside system. After 2 1/3 books of rolls, I am up $1940, with SRRs of 6.15 on book 5, 5.45 on book 6, and currently 6.03 on book 7. Every other method I have tried would be down a lot with those kinds of numbers. Up $1940, I kid you not.
OK here's the caveat. I hit a very statistacally unlikely number of 10s on that hand. If those were 6's I wouldn't have made that much money, but hey- stuff happens at the craps table. Weird stuff like this.
How in the world can I be this profitable (up $1940) with those shitty numbers? The answer? A few long hands; they really do make up for the short ones. The bottom line is, if you can stand the brutalization and the variance (which is significant), and you can play at a 100x odds house, the late Rapping Captain's Exponential Odds has got to be among the most powerful betting systems in existence. Thoughts?
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Nice effort, Americraps,
It would be interesting to look at this one from a dollars-invested/dollars-earned basis, as well as the drawdown-spikes it incurs along the way to making its profit...and of course the bankroll required to play it.
IIRC, RappingCaptain was using a $50,000 trip-bankroll, with a $10k per session betting-allowance. Does that seem to be in the ballpark?
MP
It would be interesting to look at this one from a dollars-invested/dollars-earned basis, as well as the drawdown-spikes it incurs along the way to making its profit...and of course the bankroll required to play it.
IIRC, RappingCaptain was using a $50,000 trip-bankroll, with a $10k per session betting-allowance. Does that seem to be in the ballpark?
MP
-
luxlogs
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
The Dear Captain Died from Cancer. Rest His Soul. Now I don't know if an O'Henry Candy Bar gives you Cancer, but I Do Know that Stress does. And this system is O so Stressful.
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Yes, Snakeyes, he did surround himself with the best shooters, but he also bet on the randies. Not on every shooter mind you, but he did say that he bet on the randies. My numbers are certainly no better than random, probably worse, yet I'm still ahead by a significant amount. Of course, this is way too short of a run to make any kind of judgement on the long term viability of this system. But if you believe RC claims (and I do), the system flat out works.
MP- RC used $25 units and I am using $10 units, I started with $5K. So far, on 2 1/2 books of rolls, that amount has been sufficient but not overly so. I would say a more comfortable amount would be $7-$8K starting BR. Edited to add I now believe you need 1000x your unit size to be reasonably safe. I'm going to guess that the drawdowns when betting on only one person are probably deeper than when betting on a group of people. I know this because I personally can suck ass for long periods of time (not literally, Snakeeyes), whereas in a group, there always seems to be at least 1 that can get it going.
Snake- Do you have any charters among your team? Maybe that would be something to look into.
MP- RC used $25 units and I am using $10 units, I started with $5K. So far, on 2 1/2 books of rolls, that amount has been sufficient but not overly so. I would say a more comfortable amount would be $7-$8K starting BR. Edited to add I now believe you need 1000x your unit size to be reasonably safe. I'm going to guess that the drawdowns when betting on only one person are probably deeper than when betting on a group of people. I know this because I personally can suck ass for long periods of time (not literally, Snakeeyes), whereas in a group, there always seems to be at least 1 that can get it going.
Snake- Do you have any charters among your team? Maybe that would be something to look into.
Last edited by Americraps on Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Book 8 is done and I finally got to have some fun with this system. The BR went from $4731 to $8575, a win of $3844. Most of that was on the hand that I threw 11 eights. I got it up to $1000 odds, but didn't hit it up there.
The final srr of the book was 6.61, so it looks like I have settled on this set for a while at least. 44 on top and 26 facing.
On axis was 46.67%
primaries were a bit low at 10.67%
double pitches at 10.42%
both off was good at 9.03%
Looking at my transpose tab, the ol' hway set would have done a little better with srr of 6.79 and a few more box numbers, but I'll continue to work with this 3v for a few more books of rolls. 4s, 5s and 8s were my dominant numbers.
The big takeaway from this book was how well this thing can do on a long hand. I had 5 hands that were twenty or longer between sevens, and those made the difference. Still, you need thick skin to play this betting system, as it feels like most of the time you are getting drubbed. I'm not sure I would use this at a table with more than a couple of shooters, because you need lots of hands to get to the big one that pays the rent.
I started keeping track of repeaters vs box numbers covered, in a +/- format. That seems to make it more fun. That big hand when I threw the 11 eights, I was up to + 20 when the seven showed. That means I had 20 more repeaters than numbers covered, so net net, I had 26 repeaters, since I had all the numbers covered. Hands like that erase a mountain of losers. Most hands end up around -2 or so, the real clunkers are -6, full whack!
The final srr of the book was 6.61, so it looks like I have settled on this set for a while at least. 44 on top and 26 facing.
On axis was 46.67%
primaries were a bit low at 10.67%
double pitches at 10.42%
both off was good at 9.03%
Looking at my transpose tab, the ol' hway set would have done a little better with srr of 6.79 and a few more box numbers, but I'll continue to work with this 3v for a few more books of rolls. 4s, 5s and 8s were my dominant numbers.
The big takeaway from this book was how well this thing can do on a long hand. I had 5 hands that were twenty or longer between sevens, and those made the difference. Still, you need thick skin to play this betting system, as it feels like most of the time you are getting drubbed. I'm not sure I would use this at a table with more than a couple of shooters, because you need lots of hands to get to the big one that pays the rent.
I started keeping track of repeaters vs box numbers covered, in a +/- format. That seems to make it more fun. That big hand when I threw the 11 eights, I was up to + 20 when the seven showed. That means I had 20 more repeaters than numbers covered, so net net, I had 26 repeaters, since I had all the numbers covered. Hands like that erase a mountain of losers. Most hands end up around -2 or so, the real clunkers are -6, full whack!
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Book 9 is complete with some interesting results.
First the totals- SRR for this book 6.32. Amount earned this book using RC's EO (exponential odds) = $1069.
Average SRR for last 5 books- 5.99. 5 book total amount won $4644. Almost a double of my $5K starting BR using $10 units with a statistically random srr.
On this book, I only had 2 hands longer than 20 rolls between sevens, the others all had more. Balancing that was the fact that I threw 20 extra 4s. Not something to be proud about when using the 3v, but those juicy payouts definitely helped the bottom line. The most 4s I threw in any hand was 6. That was actually the high for any box number, I also repeated the 6 six times on a hand. This was really a plain vanilla book of rolls, yet it still made money.
More testing needed and on the way. Rinse, Lather, Repeat. I wonder if our friend AlFalcons would like to test some of the other betting schemes on these 5 books..... Anyone who wants them, I'll be happy to email them.
One hand of note started with this sequence 7,7,7,11,11,11,6. The set I'm using (44 on top 26 facing) is not supossed to throw off these results, so I'm not bragging, but it made me wonder about H's friend. He bets one flat $25 DP and hops the 7's/yo combination for $8 on the come out looking for a 3x parlay. If he gets it, he packs up for the day, a winner. Here was 6 in a row- it would have been some kind of monster payout.
First the totals- SRR for this book 6.32. Amount earned this book using RC's EO (exponential odds) = $1069.
Average SRR for last 5 books- 5.99. 5 book total amount won $4644. Almost a double of my $5K starting BR using $10 units with a statistically random srr.
On this book, I only had 2 hands longer than 20 rolls between sevens, the others all had more. Balancing that was the fact that I threw 20 extra 4s. Not something to be proud about when using the 3v, but those juicy payouts definitely helped the bottom line. The most 4s I threw in any hand was 6. That was actually the high for any box number, I also repeated the 6 six times on a hand. This was really a plain vanilla book of rolls, yet it still made money.
More testing needed and on the way. Rinse, Lather, Repeat. I wonder if our friend AlFalcons would like to test some of the other betting schemes on these 5 books..... Anyone who wants them, I'll be happy to email them.
One hand of note started with this sequence 7,7,7,11,11,11,6. The set I'm using (44 on top 26 facing) is not supossed to throw off these results, so I'm not bragging, but it made me wonder about H's friend. He bets one flat $25 DP and hops the 7's/yo combination for $8 on the come out looking for a 3x parlay. If he gets it, he packs up for the day, a winner. Here was 6 in a row- it would have been some kind of monster payout.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
This is fascinating stuff Americraps. I could see even greater applications at a $5 table with 100x odds ... less risk to the bankroll on early rolls and if you get a monster going you can always up your flats and get to the same amount of odds.
Thing I don't get -- or may have missed? -- is whether there are hedging possibilities when you are WOTCO and whether you have tried to factor those in.
Cool stuff.
Thing I don't get -- or may have missed? -- is whether there are hedging possibilities when you are WOTCO and whether you have tried to factor those in.
Cool stuff.
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Hey Riggs,
I'm sure there are hedging possibilities, but I don't think they are part of RCs exponential Odds. He didn't always wotco, only when there were 4 or more numbers set. His system works, you just have to get a long roll now and then, and have deeeeeeep pockets.
After playing this for a while, it's becoming clear to me why casinos don't generally offer 100x odds. They can really get dinged when an adequately BR'ed player steps up with big units in time for a 50 roll hand or such. Kabooom! I wanna be that guy.
I'm sure there are hedging possibilities, but I don't think they are part of RCs exponential Odds. He didn't always wotco, only when there were 4 or more numbers set. His system works, you just have to get a long roll now and then, and have deeeeeeep pockets.
After playing this for a while, it's becoming clear to me why casinos don't generally offer 100x odds. They can really get dinged when an adequately BR'ed player steps up with big units in time for a 50 roll hand or such. Kabooom! I wanna be that guy.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Americraps wrote:After playing this for a while, it's becoming clear to me why casinos don't generally offer 100x odds. They can really get dinged when an adequately BR'ed player steps up with big units in time for a 50 roll hand or such. Kabooom! I wanna be that guy.
Just as most players don't like all of that icky, yucky hand-to-hand and session-to-session variance; neither do most casinos.
Offering 100x-Odds increases the house-variance as more and more players utilize them.
~In a neg-ex R-R game, the house still gains its pound-o-flesh, but the variance that they have to endure along the way is much higher than it is in a house that only offers lower Odds (or in a 100x-Odds house where very few players actually use max-Odds).
~In the realm of advantage-play dice-influencing where you are shooting with a pos-ex edge; the more Odds you use on your validated-advantage wagers; the higher your overall advantage-leveraging/skill-multiplying win-rate will be.
However, just like the house where they have the advantage over random-outcomes, your hand-to-hand and session-to-session variance will be quite high...and therefore require an outsized bankroll (just like the house) in order to endure all of the wild variance-swings you run into along the way to making your overall skill-leveraged net-profit.
MP
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Luxlogs, O'Henry candy bars are my favorite but no one sells them. Do you know a place?
As to the odds thingy, bet more & win more. Bet more when winning, bet less when losing. Hop the red. Done.
Golfer
As to the odds thingy, bet more & win more. Bet more when winning, bet less when losing. Hop the red. Done.
Golfer
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Here you go golfer,
http://www.candy.com/product.asp?itemid ... oCmvHw_wcB
http://www.candy.com/product.asp?itemid ... oCmvHw_wcB
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
-
luxlogs
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Americraps if your Really Serious of trying this out in a actual Casino, you Really need to talk to Lou first. It seems to me that more than any other system this one requires you to pick your spots accurately.
And Golfer, your O'Henry is floating in the pool.
Everything I know about Golf I learned from Caddyshack and Tin Cup.
And Golfer, your O'Henry is floating in the pool.
Everything I know about Golf I learned from Caddyshack and Tin Cup.
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
LOL, luxlogs. I understand. Think I will head out to the giant for a rare evening adventure. No golf tomorrow, no work. LAst ime there I got a piece of a local's 5 pt fire bet. Who knows if magic will strike again. If not there is always the darkside.
-
Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Here are the stats for the last few books of exponential odds wargaming
Book 10 - srr 6.00 starting br $9644, ending br $9786. Won $142.
Book 11 srr- 6.49 start br $9786 ending br $8844. Lost $942. Interesting, this is the first case of a decent srr resulting in a loser with EO. I had 2 hands of 20, and a lot of hands between 7 and 13 rolls long. The worst hand is where you cover every box number and then seven out w/o any repeaters.
Book 12 srr- 6.15 starting br $8844, ending br $9659 Won $815. Only 2 hands in the 20's, but not too many in the low teens.
Book 13 srr 5.37 Starting br $9659, ending br $8008, lost $1651. At this point, my on axis has been going up, so I picked a new set of the 2v variety for the next book.
Book 14 srr 6.26 Starting br $8008, ending br $10,242. Won $2234. The 2v worked its magic. I hit an extra 20 4s and 10s and had 5 rolls of 20 or longer. A lot of my 7s were back to back, so the low srr is a little misleading.
The last 5 books averaged 6.05 srr yet I still managed to win $598, and I have doubled the br in 10 books (7200 shots) I'm beginning to think that the srr number really doesnt matter all that much with eo. Its all about the repeaters and the hand length.
Book 10 - srr 6.00 starting br $9644, ending br $9786. Won $142.
Book 11 srr- 6.49 start br $9786 ending br $8844. Lost $942. Interesting, this is the first case of a decent srr resulting in a loser with EO. I had 2 hands of 20, and a lot of hands between 7 and 13 rolls long. The worst hand is where you cover every box number and then seven out w/o any repeaters.
Book 12 srr- 6.15 starting br $8844, ending br $9659 Won $815. Only 2 hands in the 20's, but not too many in the low teens.
Book 13 srr 5.37 Starting br $9659, ending br $8008, lost $1651. At this point, my on axis has been going up, so I picked a new set of the 2v variety for the next book.
Book 14 srr 6.26 Starting br $8008, ending br $10,242. Won $2234. The 2v worked its magic. I hit an extra 20 4s and 10s and had 5 rolls of 20 or longer. A lot of my 7s were back to back, so the low srr is a little misleading.
The last 5 books averaged 6.05 srr yet I still managed to win $598, and I have doubled the br in 10 books (7200 shots) I'm beginning to think that the srr number really doesnt matter all that much with eo. Its all about the repeaters and the hand length.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Interesting.
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: Exponential Odds Variant
Hi Americraps,Americraps wrote:Here are the stats for the last few books of exponential odds wargaming
Book 10 - srr 6.00 starting br $9644, ending br $9786. Won $142.
Book 11 srr- 6.49 start br $9786 ending br $8844. Lost $942. Interesting, this is the first case of a decent srr resulting in a loser with EO. I had 2 hands of 20, and a lot of hands between 7 and 13 rolls long. The worst hand is where you cover every box number and then seven out w/o any repeaters.
Book 12 srr- 6.15 starting br $8844, ending br $9659 Won $815. Only 2 hands in the 20's, but not too many in the low teens.
Book 13 srr 5.37 Starting br $9659, ending br $8008, lost $1651. At this point, my on axis has been going up, so I picked a new set of the 2v variety for the next book.
Book 14 srr 6.26 Starting br $8008, ending br $10,242. Won $2234. The 2v worked its magic. I hit an extra 20 4s and 10s and had 5 rolls of 20 or longer. A lot of my 7s were back to back, so the low srr is a little misleading.
The last 5 books averaged 6.05 srr yet I still managed to win $598, and I have doubled the br in 10 books (7200 shots) I'm beginning to think that the srr number really doesnt matter all that much with eo. Its all about the repeaters and the hand length.
Thanks for sharing that.
~There's no doubt that the book-to-book bankroll-volatility is off the hook (even RappingCaptain admitted swings in the -$10,000 to +$18,000 range were routine for his level of betting); but I'm wondering if you have an handle on the average-earn per hand for the E.O. so far?
Thanks in advance.
MP