Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I get this question ever so often and my answer is yes;now ,depending on whether the table is giving or taking,I may play the Donts but I do have money at risk on every shooter.On Dont play I switch to the right side after 3 rolls if a point is a 6/8;4 rolls if the point is an outside number [I may keep my flat Dont bet up as a hedge to my place bets till I get a few hits;then place the point].
Good rolls are far between and somehow I am lucky enough to catch a roll by a random shooter
Last week I was at the Beau Rivage with 9 other controlled shooters;some had some mini rolls;I shot like a dog but the others would not let me pass the dice even though I told them the casino pays me to shoot.. 4 of us on the last day played the Crap less table.A random shooter went point 7;next time he picked up the dice he had a 60 plus roll with 10 passes.3 of us got rich.Our 4th player refused to play this shooter and watched the entire roll because the shooter had no style and previously went point 7;we did not say anything .
Back to the question of should you play every shooter;I say you decide;each one to his own beliefs

i dont bet on every shooter, at least not from the start of each hand. Sometimes i jump in mid hand right side if i feel its going somewhere and sometimes i lay a number if i feel like it isnt.

Yes. Unfortunately.

r_ventura_23
Nothing wrong with playing every shooter;if you dont it becomes a guessing game on who to play and not to play as experienced by my friend who sat out a monster roll .The more important thing is to understand when to switch to the Donts and when to switch back and is the table giving or taking.
Each table has its life cycle.For example the first 2 days at the Beau Rivage the Crapless table was taking;on the third day it was giving;the shooter did not matter.
If one is uncomfortable playing every shooter one can wait a few rolls before jumping on the band wagon

I'm with you, Kumar. If I've seen the shooter toss one time my mind is made up when he tosses the second time how I'm going to bet him. If I haven't seen him toss before odds are I'll start out on the Don't Pass or Don't Come and play One Hit - Can't Miss. If he's tossed a short, ugly hand previously I'll go all in on the Don'ts. If he's tossed a decent hand with some repeating numbers I'll bet the Six and Eight and whatever number he tossed the most of his last hand and try to play a regression strategy on him. If he did a really good job last time I'll get on the PL and bet the ATS and take a shot on him. Does history repeat itself on shooters? Not necessarily - but that's all the information we have to judge him by, so that's the info I'm going to use.

do you play every shooter?

No.
Just like most things in life. There are good, better, and best shooters. I like to profile each shooter and select the ones hitting the bet(s) I'm considering. This may or may not be what other players are considering. So, if I classify a shooter as "Best" that simply means he is hitting the bet Im considering at a greater rate than the good/better shooters.

Though I agree a couple trips around the table with say nine shooters is a very small sample. Its still better than guessing, in my opinion.

A good analogy would be wagering on nine players from a baseball team for "getting a hit". We are informed before the game the team batting average is .250. The nine players batting average has a (r= .200---.330), and we are shown each players' batting average so far this week or month or season,...etc..

Would we wager the same on each batter to get a hit?

Yes, that .200 hitter may indeed go 4/4 today and I would miss out on a win by omitting Mr 200. Maybe after he made his first hit that day I could always "give him a try" with the logic "well maybe he is hot today",...etc. However, the optimum wager is a no bet on the .200 hitter, and a large wager on that .330 hitter ( Yes, he could strike out today and go 0/4). However, the optimum approach is going with what typically happens and wagering my largest wager on that one event.

Same as craps.

I guess my main thesis for winning long term at craps is all about Variance and how we choose to navigate it. Wagering every shooter and every toss of the dice is not optimum for long-term success.

Just my humble opinion of course.


All the best,

My approach is similar to Heavy's. The first time I see a shooter, I'm in information gathering mode, watching to see how I want to approach that shooter on subsequent hands.a d base my approach on that Intel.

Regardless of the shooter I qualify every one. I'll skip the come out and wait for the shooter to toss a box number before I'll commit and bets to them.

I do more or less what heavy does.start with 2 units on the DONT PASS, then bet 1 unit on the 6 and 8 and start pressing the 6 and 8 when they win. Then press one AND stack one...till the shooter throws BIG RED. jaime.

I'm the guy who watches and doesn't say much.Thats me in life in general and also at the craps table. I watch every shooter, how they handle the dice, what they are exactly doing with the dice, and lastly how they chuck Um. Then i am noting(mentally) what the resolution was. Did the shooter throw a Hardway on the comeout,was it a craps #?What is thier first shot after a point is established my mind if you observe what's is happening in the present and will ask others at the table, discretely, how has this shooter shot in the past. That is more information and my personal belief is that the past is always present in the future. Another saying I have is the Hardway's and Craps numbers turn off just as fast as they turn on.It is a nice feeling when you jump on the Hardway's on a shooter,put25$ each on the Hardway turn them on for the come out roll and hit A hard ten. Go to fifty each Then a 9 hits then a hard six hits go to seventy-five each and so and so forth. That shooter that day hit the Hardway's multiple times in a row and somehow was able to not knock them down with easy numbers. Then they started to get knocked down and I would take money off existing number and put on Hardway for coverage. When I returned the next week to the casino, a fellow craps enthusiast asked me" how did you know he was going to throw Hardway? he normally does not throw Hardway's response was his roll before that roll he set the point with a hard six then he rolled hard ten three rolls later then sevened out. So i had that plan in my mind going into his next roll an hour later. So I'm going to end this with this "its all about probability and statistics and the gut feeling I get at the craps table. Does it work out every time .NO, but when it does it is a beautiful thing.

Thanks Dice Glider and everyone else for contributing to this post;there is no right or wrong answer;just a style of play.
There are 2 important points that have come out of the replies to this post namely
-capital preservation and reducing exposure by going $204 as outlined by Heavy;2 hits and reduce to $96 across
-eliminating the quick point seven by waiting one roll before placing bets as outlined by 220 inside

I cannot judge who is going to have a break out roll by their throwing style

As explained in my initial post ,last trip at the Beau Rivage the first time the shooter got the dice he went point 7 ;next time he got the dice for of us said to ourselves wish he would pass the dice we have some great shooters at the table,;one of our players refused to play him and watched a monster roll go by.
In the summer this year at Black Hawk the shooter on every third roll threw the dice off the table;another monster roll;last year at the Bellagio this couple bought in for $7500 each right in the middle of a roll;the crew took 15 minutes to count the money;when play restarted up popped the seven;did not faze the couple;the woman flung the dice and had a monster monster roll.She broke every rule that has been en grained in us;did we care after the roll?
Two years ago this controlled shooter friend of mine who thinks he is the best shooter in the world told me the guy who just picked up the dice has gone point 7 the whole night and wont pass the dice so what does the shooter do ? rolls a 10 pass hand
I have given up trying to figure out who will produce;whose stars are lining up at that moment in time.
I play every shooter using some combination of Heavy and 220 inside 's style and when my indicators say play the dark side I play the dark side but move very quickly to the right side after the shooter has got past the 3-5 count so I dont miss a big roll.Once I get my initial investment on that shooter back I press aggressively.

I do try to survey the situation a bit, but I have become very comfortable using OHCM with what I call a "locked" kicker. Nothing new its just when the 6 or 8 hits I take them both down and place the point. Or if the the 6 or 8 is the point and the sister hits I leave the point up to completion.

I just feel this is a great approach to stay in the game with out a lot of volatility to your bankroll and be in a position to catch one that lights up while waiting for the dice.

Now if I could just find an alternative to that for Crapless.....

HH

I Learned a lesson a couple years ago on randoms. I was at freemont and a guy had a 28 or so roll. It was enough to get the certificate for a hat. I was always pretty dead set on placing the 6 and 8 for minimum on randoms and just hoping to get a few bucks once in awhile from them. Guy went on a long roll and only ever hit the 8 one time. He never hit the six before finally rolling a 7 out. He hit everything but what I played. It is just what it is. He's a random. The 6 and 8 mathematically should have paid for my original bets. I now am not afraid to get on a few other numbers on randoms. Hell my last trip to vegas I watched many random hit a side of the ats while I wasn't on it. It's called gambling and a person never knows when a random will get a long roll. It does happen. I won't expose my bankroll much but I have learned over the years being stuck on my 6 and 8 only has cost me some money.

Yep. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. I may change up some bets but you got to be in the game to win when the lighting strikes. My two biggest wins this year were on randy's one was my wife. Now that being said it seems to me that you have a lot more opportunity early morning to get a table alone. Last year I had some really nice quick wins all by my lonesome. Thinking about it I probably I should make myself do that more moving forward.
Cheers
Grinder

Keep your power dry:

On "BRIGHT SIDE" aka PASS Line wager , consider observing...

UNTIL:

The DICE TOSSER has HIT ONE BOX NUMBER THREE TIMES
or
HIT TWO BOX NUMBERS each TWO TIMES.

Then either MAKE A COME WAGER or PLACE A "CONVERTED C O M E WAGER"
on the number that SHOWED
and
P E R H A P S "THE Sister Number to THE NUMBER THAT SHOWED"

==================> ON THE Laying of "Back Line Wagers"<============
Should a BOX NUMBER not show in Eight ( 8 ) tosses of the dice
LAY WAGER AGAINST it.....

Should you have reservations,
chart the numbers rolled
and
employ the actual results during some future CRAPS TABLE ADVENTURE.

Just me Saying

W C

Standing at the rail, watching a mega roll with me on a lousy Don't bet was how I came up with TUMA. Thumb Up My A@@.

Such is life. Learning to transition is a skill Heavy teaches. Worth the tuition.

Golfer

This is a topic I’m still trying to figure out. Life was so much easier before I learned about DI, dice tossing etc. lol. I feel like I have to solve quantum physics now on every shooter to try and determine how I’m gonna bet. Lately, I’ve just decided to keep things simple and just bet a 6&8 on everyone to start and just try to get out of the hand asap. The more I sit and try & analyze what each shooter is doing and what their toss is showing the more it flusters me and makes me not want to play. So, it’s just 6&8 and pray lol.

These are interesting facts everyone has brought up. On a few occasions, I will try to observe the play from the outside, not part of the game or on the table. On these occasions I have seen the shooter in the middle of a large hand. A lot of chips on the table and money being made. What am I to do, I don't want to be that person previously mentioned that slowed up the game and caused the seven out. So I wait. Should I move in after the next point or after the shooter is done. On one occasion, I waited to the shooter seven out and the shooter thanked me for not disrupting his rhythm. It appears that the table energy just seems to be whipped out at this point. Everyone is betting on every shooter, hoping for the energy to come back, but the dice move around the table quickly. Then I am skeptical, I start to bet the don't come, but think what if a hot hand develop, will I miss it. Proper money management is important, for on a few occasions I was hoping for the hot hand and did not see it. But when do you pull the plug. Craps is like Golf, the good rolls just like the good shots, keep up coming back.

Proper money management is important, for on a few occasions I was hoping for the hot hand and did not see it. But when do you pull the plug. Craps is like Golf, the good rolls just like the good shots, keep up coming back.

On average, about one player in six will have what the average player can turn into a profitable hand. Maybe two or more passes. That's not a lot. But let's think in these terms as far as Randy is concerned. The average GAME for a randy is resolved in about 3.5 tosses. He'll either make his first pass or Seven out before roll Four. The average HAND will run about 8.5 rolls. A hand can consist of one game or several. Note that a Come Out Seven or Eleven begins and ends one game. Likewise, a Come Out craps number begins and ends a game - but in both cases, the shooter's HAND continues. THAT fact is why the average HAND at craps for a randy is 8.5 rolls and not 6 rolls, as many so-called experts out there on the Internet proclaim on their YouTube channels. It's also why I don't recommend many YouTube channels. Too many idiots out there just trying to build a following so they can monetize their sites - but I digress.

If Randy's average hand is 8.5 rolls then you have to look at what his long hands should max out at - on average around 17 rolls. So mathematically, you have some critical break points in there to be aware of. Now, the math guys will tell you that the odds of the Seven showing on every roll are exactly the same, and this is a fact. But the cumulative number of rolls before seven does generate a rate of diminishing returns on non-seven rolls. You can't figure it exactly, but you do have the above math to work from and that's what some of us wily old vets do.

So let's go back and look at those first 3.5 rolls. That includes the Come Out roll, so essentially you have on average two tosses before the game is settled. A lot of guys think they'll play two hits and down. But there area twelve non-winning numbers between the craps numbers and the Seven/Eleven, so you only have a two out of three chance of winning IF you're betting Across. But most players bet inside or Six and Eight ONLY looking for two hits and regress or some such nonsense. THAT is why so many players get whacked early in the game. You need to think in terms of one hit and regress betting the Inside. If you don't get a hit on the second toss, bring that shit down or turn it off until you get past roll four or five - then turn it back on until you get back up near roll eight - then turn it off again. Get past that hump then you're back on until you get up around roll sixteen. Then back off. Get up past eighteen and you're on and power pressing like a MF until you hit a regress point - then regress by two-thirds or so and run it again. Or something like that.

If at any time you're just pissing your pants, wanting to get into a game in mid-hand and can't wait to buy in, you can always wait until some prop action is being paid and drop a $100 bill on the table and tell the dealer to give you $96 across and all the hardways for $1 each for the dealers. No change. No players card hand in. Using that money. You'll do a proper buy in when the puck is off. The dealer will drop the bill, set up the bets and the shooter likely won't even be aware of the transaction.

KevtheCarpenter wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:19 am This is a topic I’m still trying to figure out. Life was so much easier before I learned about DI, dice tossing etc. lol. I feel like I have to solve quantum physics now on every shooter to try and determine how I’m gonna bet. Lately, I’ve just decided to keep things simple and just bet a 6&8 on everyone to start and just try to get out of the hand asap. The more I sit and try & analyze what each shooter is doing and what their toss is showing the more it flusters me and makes me not want to play. So, it’s just 6&8 and pray lol.

I look at the results. If the shooter is hitting box numbers then I place bets. Qualify every shooter. I don't look at the toss for the most part. Ive seen guys set the dice carefully and then shake them in their hands.

i sit out most 'randoms' and only put action on the shooter who's ahead of me. So I can throw. Most casinos don't let you shoot if you didn't play something on the shooter before you.

Nice way to breakdown the vagueness and ambiguity of the random shooter. I will further explore that roll progression. If I dropped $96 across on that hand, I would be having a good story to tell. The shooter who was this old grizzled veteran off the crap table said "I never had a roll like this before".