Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I've talked about this a bit in the past, but I'm going to toss this out there (pun intended) once again. Bonus Bets, in particular the All Tall Small (or Big, Boom, Bust or whatever the hell else they choose to call it) are just that bets that pay you a bonus based on you overcoming some outlandish house edge to win it. How much of a house edge? In casinos that only pay 150 - 1 on the ALL, it's a whopping 20.61%. In other words, for every $100 you spend betting the Bonus Bet - over the long run you'll lose $79.39. And no, that $150 - $1 will not overcome that. Now, I know what you're going to say next. "But I only bet it on myself and other known DI's with a positive edge." My response to that? "Bullshit." Why? Because I've stood at the table with so many of you and watched your play. Hell, I've watched my own play. And I've missed getting paid off on the ATS too many times when every DI at the table failed to hit it and the lone Randy at the table knocked it out in eleven or twelve tosses. I mean, come on! So what do you do? You try to micro-manage your bankroll by only betting the ALL on them, or only betting the Small and Tall but not the ALL. So how is that working out for you? Enjoying that $300 payoff when they hit the full ATS and you only have $5 on the Small and Tall but miss that $750 payout on the ALL? Feel like a dumbass for not betting it all? Right. So you have a decision to make. Legitimately bet it on yourself only, or bet it on yourself and KNOWN DI's that you KNOW have a positive EV, or bet it on yourself and other dice setters at the table, regardless if you know anything about them or not, or just go ahead and go full bore on it on every shooter. 99% of the time I'm going to opt for the first choice - bet it only on myself. However, when I'm playing with guys I've trained who I shoot with regularly, or with a handful of local players I get together with locally and know can shoot, I'll bet it on them as well. Beyond that - if I miss out on scoring a hit on Randy's hand - so be it. I saved more than I missed out on by not betting on the other 8400 players who didn't hit it.

In fact, we as DI's have come to rely on the Bonus Bet as our "get back" bet of choice. We play a much looser game than we should at regular craps, knowing that at some point, if we get down a thousand bucks, someone in the group is going to score an ATS win and bring us back. IMHO that is dangerous thinking and to be avoided. We should be playing every element of the game to win - not just for fun. That means if you're playing the hardways it should be on your hands when you're using a set that you've proven via BoneTracker to generate hardways. If you're betting the Horn numbers you should be the shooter using your best Horn/Field number set. If you're hopping the Sevens on the Come Out you should be using your best Come Out Sevens set. All of this, as I said, validated by BoneTracker. If you are not, you are just a fool waiting to be separated from his money.

That's my opinion, like it or not.

Thoughts?

On a 3 day trip one has to hit 3 ALL/ALL"s to get ahead
It is fun when it hits but in general it is a drain on capital;there is a saying among dealers-wish the casino would let us book this bet

On the other hand, from a DI perspective, if you only bet 555 on yourself you only have to hit one side of the ATS once in every ten tries to break even. I know players who can do that easily, and probably come close to one in six, so I can see the allure.

One in ten to break even for halves and if you happen to hit it all you have 70 shots at hitting it again! I still liked it better when it was 1 in 11.66 to break even but those odds arent around many places anymore. Seems like more and more require 5,5,5 as well. I think it probably saves me money. I always played at least 555 on myself and sometimes i gambled and played 212 or occasionally 333 on randies if i was feeling lucky. Now with the 555 rule i choose not to play on most other shooters.

As an opportunist,
I have often incorporated some "Do Not Wagers "
when the dice table tightens like a clam at low tide on a frost covered day.

just me saying
w c

I don't bet the ATS but maybe I should. Last trip to Biloxi I only threw 3 times (all different sessions) hit the all once. I talked with a dealer a couple years ago and he said it really hurt the tips due to players betting the ATS for them and not the line or hardways. It also slows down the game and not just when it hits but also the come out 7s. I made a nice profit last year the old fashion way by pressing the box numbers
Cheers
Grinder

I made a nice profit last year the old fashion way by pressing the box numbers.

Think of it this way. If you'd bet the 5-5-5 on 10 players and none of them hit it you'd be out $555.00. Now take that $555.00 and spread it out to the tune of an extra $24 - $30 on the Six and Eight on the next ten QUALIFIED shooters and let's see how much more you'd win.

heavy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 4:32 pm
That's my opinion, like it or not.

Like it!? I can’t jump up and give you a standing O fast enough!!

I HATE the ATS!! Like, I’m talking with a passion hate it! I’d give my entire life up just for one time to hear a trip report where the ATS isn’t mentioned whatsoever. It sickens me just how many players put so much stock in the ATS. I look at it like this. You need an extreme amount of knowledge of your toss, dice sets, bonetracker work, stat crunching just to give yourself a fighting chance at having any sort of edge in sniping it. Even with all of that you’re battling against such a massive house edge. I just don’t think players truly understand this.

What annoys me more are the players who hedge their hedges which hedge the hedge that hedges the ats. You do know that if you just don’t play the ats you wouldn’t have to make a billion high house edge hedge bets to protect a bet, right? Right?!? There’s no way that these gambits are turning a profit long term, skilled shooting or not. High house edges are very difficult to overcome.

That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it! Lol
I’m a house edge nit and don’t care much for bonus bets, what can I say

Now that we have discussed the pros and cons of the ATS and the house edge, when I am with a group I will play a $5 ALL/ALL when someone in my group is shooting provided my indicators support right side betting of $160 across or $220 inside.The last thing I want to do is go for dinner and hear the rest of the gang talk about how one of our shooters hit the ALL/ALL and I was not on it.
If one side hits I place that side for $25;if the ALL/ALL hits I press that bet to $50.Logically it makes no sense but in this game I have seen the impossible occur like 6 twelves on crap less or a guy buys in for $10 k ,starts with $500 on the field ,only plays the field and over a 2 day period walks off with $150 k.

Tell us how you really feel abut the ATS KtC.

You need an extreme amount of knowledge of your toss, dice sets, bonetracker work, stat crunching just to give yourself a fighting chance at having any sort of edge in sniping it

.

I think this pretty much sums up what most of the serious DIs i know try to do.

5 years ago i think the majority of the members had similar sentiments about the ATS. If you look back at some of the discussions there were many complaints about all aspects of it. Many preferred tables that didnt have it, and almost everyone discouraged changing sets in the middle of a good hand. So much so i was reluctant to mention that i liked having it on the table and i often changed sets during my toss. My play was based on what i was seeing in practice but not supported by wealth of knowledge the new developments in bone tracker thanks to coaster,220, nate and maybe others has shown us.

Fast forward to now, I think most guys that spend alot of time practicing, play it... WHEN THEY SHOOT! (or other DIs that have proven they are capable of hitting it. Playing it on randies is a crap shoot, but Hey, we are playing(gambling) a negative expectation game. On what and how much we are willing to risk is up to everyones own comfort level, and i think for many of us changes from time to time. If you dont feel it or believe you can hit it you shouldnt play it.

Just curious do you know how many times you have hit it? If not i think you are playing your game the way you should play it and there is nothing wrong with that. As far as house edge, For me odds and house edge are for the house. I dont ignore them but if the 4 has been rolling all night i might bet the 4 instead of the 8.
Enjoyed your rant though sounds like you have your head on straight.

Big O wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2024 9:30 am

Just curious do you know how many times you have hit it? If not i think you are playing your game the way you should play it and there is nothing wrong with that. As far as house edge, For me odds and house edge are for the house. I dont ignore them but if the 4 has been rolling all night i might bet the 4 instead of the 8.
Enjoyed your rant though sounds like you have your head on straight.

Lol, thanks. Glad to be able to entertain haha. I personally have never once hit it at a casino. I’ve hit it rolling out on my table at home though. One time I hit it in 11 rolls lol. So, one of my locals has the good ats (34-175-34). If I ever get to the point of mastering my toss, maybe I’ll do the homework needed to come up with an ats sniping plan and give it a try. Until then, it’s a no bet for me.