Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I need some "professional gamblers' " advice. I'll pose the question at the end because I need to describe my frame of mind during the sessions in question.

I'm on a short winning streak. My buy-in is $600-800 with a loss limit at $350-400. I have a "reserve" of $1,000 with me but I just don't like to buy in with more. I generally tiptoe in with $32 Inside $10 PL & $10 Odds or a $10 HeatSeeker until I think I've got a feel for the table (or my own toss) at which point I'll go to $90 Inside with $10 on the 4 & 10 (or $150 Across depending on my hunch), regressing to the initial tiptoe after two or three hits. Without going into details on the 90 Inside scheme, it will have netted me at least $71 after three hits at worst (or $112 after 2 hits [at best]) before I regress to the $32 Inside scheme. (I'm just now getting used to having as much as $110 minimum or $150 in Place bets for a starting scheme. It still makes me itch, but I'm no longer afraid to follow a PSO with the same betting scheme twice. I know it'll happen, but I've yet to PSO 3x consecutively so far during this "comfort".)

In my last 4 sessions I won $1111, $125, $110, $35. Each time, I recovered from being down--repectively, in the first session I was down -$300, in the second down -250, the third down -150, the fourth down -$300. Each session's reported bottom was followed immediately by one single winning hand that put me in the profits at the numbers I specify above.

I colored up each time immediately; in the fourth session I colored up thinking I'd won $135. I forgot that I bought in with $700--I thought I'd bought in with $600. Someone VERY knowledgeable gave me some good advice a while ago--"what's your session goal? If you make your goal, pocket it and then test the table's winning potential with any overage and decide from there if it's time to cash in."

I now live 15 minutes from the casinos so trip "expenses" don't really figure into my "value per session" costs. I set a goal of winning $100-150 per session since gasoline only costs me about $5 round trip. After each of the four sessions I described, I cashed in because I had hit my goal. I also considered the history of the hand--that I'd come back from terrible starts, and I didn't want to walk away with with less than the set goal and an "it was all free play" experience.

Only when I after I got home after that wild swing in the first session--from down -300 to up +1,111 in one hand, did I look back and think, "in my euphoria of recovering (AND winning with a long hand that I threw), I forgot the second part of the advice--"test the table's winning potential with a little bit more". I mean, I gave it half a thought at the table as I colored up, but seriously, up 11x my goal, I thought, "that's good enough for me, I won't risk $150 Across or $110... "Winning" is 15% profit in my mind if my loss limit is ~$400 (3 PSOs)." (Strictly speaking, I'd violated my loss limit placing $90 Inside when I'd already suffered $300 lost.)

And so to my question--as "professional gamblers", what do you do if you've hit your goal immediately in one hand after having suffered terrible starts or long sessions that bottom out near your loss limit?

Is it called 'discipline' to leave having made your goal, or is it 'fear' or part of "bad gambling practice" to leave having recovered and not test the table for a winning trend?

Thank you!

Dork, sounds like you are doing very good a win is a win. Now let me clarify that I am not a pro but experienced. I only set loss limits generally about 50% of the buy in, never win limits I will take as much as it will give me. In your first session I would have probably locked up the $1,000 profit and see what the $100 did on the next shooter or two. When I get up I a good amount I always lock up a profit. When I get down and and battle back during a long session and the table is just a up hill battle I will take that $35 win and feel if I'm whistling past the grave yard and get the hell out of there. It is always a better drive home with a win. Four winning sessions in a row you are way a head of the field!
Cheers
Grinder

I apologize, Grinder, for not answering immediately. I wanted to have something more than "Thank you" for a response...

Obviously with so many people reading my thread and one single response, I didn't write the "essay" well enough to make my point but in the last few months I've gleaned enough advice from some authors to formulate an actual "plan" --aside from "set a comfortable buy-in and loss-limit, and have a comfortable betting scheme". I'm still playing with "scared money", but Lord knows I'm not afraid of losing. Yeow...

Since the query above, in which I left at the last session up $35, I had a catastrophic losing session where I couldn't leave the table; it cost me -$826. I'm at a loss to explain the psyche that kept me glued to the rail; the table was FULL--12 players... (But it won't happen again; I had an epiphany between that session and the next.) I came in having just missed an ALL-Everything hand. The table seemed still warm; the first hand I played I was up ~$120 and should have quit but fell prey to 3 consecutive PSO/PPSOs after 4 shooters--my rack looked like -320 at that point. Rather than leave, I played through another 5 RRs until it was my turn at the dice and PSO'd myself. ARGH. Through it all, in my "frenzy" I stuck with my 90-Inside $10/4&10 betting scheme and rode it down in flames. Yeah. I couldn't find two shooters who could hit two Inside numbers in 4 rolls.

The next day I lost another $263 and quit. At least that session took me an hour and 45 minutes to see-saw and lose two consecutive PSOs before I got fed up with the table and went home. The ONLY good news from those two sessions is that between them I pondered my play and finally remembered something Kumar told me--one doesn't have to leave the table when it's lost it's "heat"--you can reduce your bets and observe, rather than "stick to your guns" betting by rote hoping a hot hand will save you. By waiting and conserving, one can "ride the wave" when it comes. (if I may paraphrase). That advice is what made me reduce my bets and wait; curtailing my losses for the first time, ever!!

For the next three sessions, I've had good success, +$453, $101, +$851. It's how I scored that matters--

$453: buy-in for $800; down about $250 seesawing with HeatSeeker on every RR until I took the dice. One long hand netted ~$900 and I left the table after 2 hours. I pressed the 5 to $300!! (but it died there along with about $80 spread Across variously.)

$101: $800 buy-in; Heatseeker and 90 Inside for 90 minutes. Up ~$50 for about 75 minutes and finally broke $100 and quit.

+$851: This is the one I'm proudest of... seesaw Heatseeking for an hour lost me -$70; table got "hot" I recovered to +$55 (as I converted from HS to $44 Inside and Heavy's 12-18-30-42 scheme on the 6/8; everything else "Up One". So much for "hot"--a cheesy little "~15 roll" hand, ended +$55. On the next shooter I bet 90 Inside, regressed after two hits (to $54 Across) and watched the shooter run the ALL Everything. I only netted $524 as winnings because I'd layed the 9 for $300 (as the last number needed). He was sorrowful because he was down to his last $60 and had only bet 6/8 for $18 each and had a $10 PL and 10 odds (on the 4)--I don't think he hit four 6s and 8s total, and he didn't make his Point. I gave him $100 tip. With my winnings, I literally pocketed all but $150 and bet it on myself as I was the next shooter. ($90 Inside, $10 4/10, $10 PL with 30 Odds) and ran a regression to $66 Inside after two Inside hits. That hand ended up $454 total, and I lost ~$130 chasing the next shooter and so I packed it up having won ~$524 on one hand and $454 on the next hand -- which in the old days, I would have missed having colored up after the $524 win.

On an aside: I wonder if the "lay 9 for $300" was a good play but I wanted to be sure to net something. Looking back it might not have been too bright; at that point it was most of my winnings bet to net $200. As I evaluate it, after the $100 tip to the shooter, I netted almost even money; then again, if he'd have RED, I'd have made another $200... I dunno how to figure those things. Maybe my $300 Lay was right at the bubble--should I have Layed even more, or less?

But finally I'll get to my point for this post---

I have to especially thank Grinder, Kumar, and TGold for their advisories--their ideas helped me get past the results of that first terrible -$826 Loss day-- and maybe think more like a gambler than a guy who gambles at the casino... with my singular ideas of "establish a buy-in, and limit my losses" and riding my betting scheme into the dust-- to thinking and betting with a better plan... and not trying to evaluate my betting/play with a regard to "fear".

specifically, establish a goal for what to win, tread water on choppy and cold tables while waiting, pounce when it's hot and especially--use a "reserve" from the winnings to test the table after a hot hand-- Thank you, Gents for your ideas!

I was playing at Rio once years ago, using an old school regression strategy when the boxman told me, "You'll never win any money that way, Steve. You're playing with scared money." I said, "You're damn right I'm playing with scared money. I'm scared to death of losing. I worked my ass off for this money. That's why I'm up almost $1000 right now while the rest of the people at the table are losing. I'm taking money off the table while they keep pressing their bets up with their winnings." He shut up after that and never said another word to me.

For what it's worth, unless I'm the shooter, I always Lay the last point on the ATS for SOMETHING. About a third of what you'd win is a good number IMHO. It gets you out with a decent win, even if it's just a couple of hundred bucks.

As for giving back part of your win goal - here's how I play it.

I play with a win goal of $360. If I'm playing and someone catches a heater and I get up $590, after that hand is over I lock up my $620 buy in plus my $360 win goal in the back rack - $980. Odds are I'll just rack $1k back there. That'll leave me $210 to $230 in the rack, depending on whether I rack the extra $20 or not. So, I'll continue to play my regular game with that $200 plus as long as I continue to win. But if I lose money on three shooters in a row OR lose HALF of that $200 plus - I rack the remaining $100 plus and walk with an $1100 plus win. That's what you should do IMHO.

More epiphanies! Thanks, Heavy!

Hi Dork and good thread. Thx for sharing your current approach. I read through your wager(s) example, session reports and questions.
Im not 100% clear on what is your main objective at the tables. However, I will attempt to respond although Im sure you probably already know this and considered my thoughts below.

First , congrats on the winning streak and I really liked the part about "headed to the bank" to deposit some Benjamins. I think its really important that one has a MM method that does not permit us to play all of our winnings back through the casino. More on that later.

Dork in OP:
"...I'm on a short winning streak. My buy-in is $600-800 with a loss limit at $350-400. I have a "reserve" of $1,000 with me but I just don't like to buy in with more. I generally tiptoe in with $32 Inside $10 PL & $10 Odds or a $10 HeatSeeker until I think I've got a feel for the table (or my own toss) at which point I'll go to $90 Inside with $10 on the 4 & 10 (or $150 Across depending on my hunch), regressing to the initial tiptoe after two or three hits. Without going into details on the 90 Inside scheme, it will have netted me at least $71 after three hits at worst (or $112 after 2 hits [at best]) before I regress to the $32 Inside scheme. (I'm just now getting used to having as much as $110 minimum or $150 in Place bets for a starting scheme..."

My preference is to buyin for what Im willing to risk. I see some players do like you mention. I see some buyin for 2x-3x what they will risk thinking the higher buyin increases their comp ratings,...etc. I also see many keep rebuying in with the additional money from their pocket chasing losses.

My preference for buying in for my risk amount is that setting 50% or other % of buyin as my loss limit is just another psychological stressor I dont need while focusing on the game. I track everything I do and also find record keeping easier making my buyin my risk. I seldom ever bust a buyin in any one session as I dont make that many wagers/ would never bet on every shooter and every roll of the dice. I also utilize a stop trigger . I draw down some but typically dont leave a session because Ive won alot or lost alot. I dont bet a predetermined wager. I have triggers to stop wagering on whatever Im not guessing correctly and dont chase losses. I just pause and try to assess why I am guessing incorrectly.

One thing I do that I have found beneficial is lets say I drawdown from the initial buyin(e.g., -1200 on a 4K buyin) and go eat lunch or whatever. My next buyin will be 2800. If I had initially won say +1200 or +200 or whatever I apply my money management to that net+ and buyin the next session @ the initial 4K). This helps with record keeping as well as calculating ROI and losses. This also helps with discipline and keeps one from chasing losses or betting larger just because we had a recent uptick. I think its very important to set a loss limit so one really bad session doesnt win multiple buyins or ones bankroll. I like to set my buyin to endure up to approx (-3.0--3.5 SD). So on the really bad sessions that swing > -3--3.5(-4sd,-4.5sd, -5sd,...etc) is that I only lose one single buyin. However, when Im in sync with +3.0,3.5,4.0 SD I am harvesting far more that one buyin. We shall see both sides of Variance near equally.
To each their own in how they choose to navigate Var.

re: your 600-800 buyin with $1k in your pocket wagering a $52 initial outlay(32 inside and 10/10odds on the line). Then after getting a read on table you may wager$110 or 150 with a regression. First let us discuss the initial wager of $52.

Even on just the "tiptoe in" 52 initial risk I wouldnt consider anything less than 1500 buyin(approx .035%). Thats a good estimate for >=3 wagers regime as we shouldnt increase much more than that even for 4,5,or 6 wagers. Again, I do not know if you play every day. Only drop in to the casino for one hour and want 5 tries with the dice. You play multiple sessions per day, happy to win $52 per day,...etc.
We will still bust that buyin in the example above(1500 for $52unit) and may or may not have already won the buyin(1500) totaled from all the individual win sessions. I would suggest your win goal on the above example to be one unit of risk($52). That estimate will give you a sufficient ratio for number of trials vs hitting win goal before busting buyin.


re: Your next example (110 or 150 initial layout) obviously would require a much larger buyin. Again it all depends on what is your objective. All aspects must fit like a glove "just for you". Objective, shooting advantage, bet size to buyin to bankroll, risk tolerance,...etc.

Reminder, and I will preface my thoughts in that I dont play a 4 and 5 across wager regime or the 110--66 regression. Although, like many of you when I first started playing I ran sims for all kinds of wagering regimes. I have run sims on this vs what many play (66 inside , press once, collect on 2nd hit and regress). This (110--66) is superior with all other variables held the same.
The (110--66) is a good one and better than most other 4-wager regimes. Its just not "my cup o tea".

The main attribute I like on the (110-to-66) is : The regression (on 2nd hit). This helps alot on required buyin amounts because you will also get the 2hits and regress in more trials than NOT getting 2 hits. Meaning it is common to see a 2,3,4 roll hand that gives us two hits on the inside.
The secondary attribute in my opinion is the potential of achieving the 2nd hit on just two rolls of the dice.
The tertiary attribute (IMO) is that even when you dont receive the second hit you may have received one hit(So the casino wouldnt get 100% of your initial outlay).
I like the cutoff for the regression as well as the % regression(110--66inside). Im not fond of five wagers(You include a Pl/odds) and would probably be looking for reasons to quickly remove one of the five wagers to four and after three hits maybe remove two for a total of 3 remaining wagers(that have hit). Its tough to beat craps with a static >=4 wagers as the necessary long hands simply do not show often enough.
Of course I dont know what your buyin is and how long you play in a typical session. I also dont know what your risk tolerance is for busting buyins. Even with the .035% example above we will still bust our buyins. However, it will keep us alive at the table long enough until we see a 14-16 toss hand.

"...
Is it called 'discipline' to leave having made your goal, or is it 'fear' or part of "bad gambling practice" to leave having recovered and not test the table for a winning trend?..."

My preference is to never leave a win streak. I like to set my win goal as (>=).
Sometimes it is just a brief blip and whatever was winning previously gets right back in sync and continues. Sometimes I will set aside my pressed up wager(s) in the latter stages of W streak and finish the winning streak near or just above my base unit. Once streak ends I use a base unit for 2-3 events to confirm or refute if the streak will indeed continue.


More later and I will try to respond to your other posts this weekend.

Thx again,TGold

In my cardiac rehab class yesterday we had to watch a video on stress and inner fears. The film started off with "Which of these things cause you stress or fear?" The FIRST thing they showed was a pair of dice bouncing down a craps table. I laughed out loud.

After that they showed a series of high risk things you're supposed to be frightened of . . . high speeds on motorcycles . . . drag racing . . . flying in a helicopter . . . water skiing . . . flying down a mountain on a snow sled . . . and on and on and on . . . ALL shit I have done in my life and would do again in a heartbeat. LOL. All the while thinking "I'm too old for this crap, but boy, ain't if fun."

My old buddy Shootitall would have had a heart attack just watching the video. Man, I miss that guy.

Hi Guys!

Thanks for all your responses on this and my other posts. I haven't been ignoring the forum, I just couldn't get in. I've asked Heavy at least 4x before to fix the lock on my IP address (and he has, every time) but this time when I got the lockout message ("you've been permanently banned") I just decided not to bother him yet again when it's plain now that the problem lies within my NORD VPN set up somewhere. Anyway, it relinquished today and whatever IP problem was posed to the forum's security software is gone now. (Not to say I won't "disappear" again sometime without warning.) Sooo.. I'm back again.

Thanks yet again, TGold, for your suggestions. Between you and Heavy, I've adjusted my main objective to have a better plan, especially on the loss limit. I've decided to buy in with a minimum of $600 and set the loss limit at 50% (or $300 no matter the buy-in if I buy in for more). I'm tempted to follow your advice and buy in with at least $1200, but it just makes me queasy to show that much of an initial buy in on a "full" table. If I know the shooters or am alone I don't have nearly the reservations about it.

But to my main objective--"what is my goal?"... I was going about 4x a week (the casino is 20 minutes from home) prepared for anywhere up to a couple hours at most each time. I think since I've moved down here, the longest I stayed is just under 90 minutes--and I felt that that was long enough... concentration felt good, but it couldn't have been as fresh as beginning and I thought I should follow the rules and leave. I was ahead decently, but not making further headway. At that time, my goal was to win $100 per day. I've only gone once or twice a week during the last 3 weeks. With that adjustment, I've changed my win goal to $250.

Part of that all was influenced by 4 straight losing sessions. I'd tweaked my toss and lately in the last 4-5 sessions the dice stick together better; synch'd as before, they tumble more cleanly and die sooner but I was double-pitching with more regularity. I THINK I solved it with home sessions and in the last 3 sessions now I'm up solidly. Yeeha! BT told me to change to 33/25 from 44/62 for less Red, and an adjustment in feel with the dice seemed to improve my home work and it seemed to work at the casino.

I know we're not supposed to focus solely on sniping numbers, but I gotta celebrate--today, I had a 26-roll hand with the 33/25. BY THE WAY---TODAY THE MINIMUM BET WAS $15 AND I SURVIVED!! (more later) At roll 18 I rolled a first-time 4, leaving the 2 as the only number I needed for the ATS. During my homeworking sessions to fix the double pitches I noticed that BT said I threw a lot more 3-2s (bottom/facing) than anything else (which explains why I'm tossing 5s with a 6s & 8s set), so I set the dice at 64/21 AND ROLLED ACES ON THAT TOSS!!!!! I cain't bleeve it. After 3 sessions in the last 5 where I needed a Horn number... What luck! Sure, I set the dice to hit a preponderance of Inside numbers "randomly" but Cindy (the dealer) watched me set off my late favorite 33/25 to the 64/21 and gave me a funny look when it hit. I'll call it "discipline" (learned here) to go back after 4 losing sessions with a revised plan and snipe an Ace (what a coincidence! I only wish ... ).

So I'll leave with this--It's "Cruisin' the Coast" week starting tomorrow. The casino raised their minimum to $15, which broke my heart. At least the dealers confirmed that it's only for the week (or the weekends, they weren't sure). Anyway, that put a crimp on my intended buy-in; I increased it to the $1000. Two years ago, my play today wouldn't have been psychologically possible--

That large a buy-in, with SOOo... ( ) much as an initial stake Inside ($48/51 or $66) AND KNOWING the bet progressions automatically from your guys' discussions kept me calm and in the green for most of the session. Thank you, Kumar, Coaster, TGold, 22Inside, and Heavy! Ya'll might not remember--I was $22 Inside, $5PL & 10 Odds with a $300 stake in what amounts to three "playing" years ago. (been off the tables for almost 5 years living in Missouri)--but I survived AND won on a $15 table for an hours' play!! (and it wasn't a "savior" hand that did it) Thanks, Guys!

ps. Heavy, why a $620 buy-in? what's the extra $20 for?

620 equates to a full stack each of white, red and green chips.

I've moved by standard buy in from 620 to 1020. I sometimes get strange looks from the dealer when I tell him the buy in amount after I throw down my money, but then I tell him I want a stack of green, a stack of red, a stack of white (for dealer bets) and 4 black. The light bulb usually goes off in their head when I break it down like that.

Also, I think crossing the 1000 threshold for your buy in also signals to the box and pit that you might be a bigger fish than you really are, especially on lower minimum tables where they5used to seeing much lower buy ins.

Ahh! Thanks 220, that makes a lot of sense. They're always breaking down a quarter to make my 20 white + 1 red. This'll make it smoother, and that $1020 tip might help, too.