Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I'm long-winded; sorry....

Recently I layed $300 against the 9 to protect the last number in the ATS bet. $300 was most of my winnings to that point. The anticipated payoff was $910. My thought was, if RED comes and kills the ATS, at least I'd make ~$200, leaving me with a profit of ~$500. As it turned out, the shooter hit the 9, and I made a net $610 for the ATS. For my $300 Lay bet, under the best scenario (hitting the 9), I made an extra $100. This was my first "large" Lay bet; I've laid $100 No Four on the ATS before ([because that's all I had left] and fortunately lost that Lay) but I have no sense/perspective on the amount I should be Laying to conserve the best (biggest) profit. Are their guidelines--thoughts on acceptable percentages of profit/loss, or is it all hunch versus risk tolerance?

Secondly, for the first time ever I'm on a winning "streak". That is, I showed enough of a profit to make a deposit at the bank!!! THAT'S A FIRST. Dunno if you read my other post about "discipline and fear", but I came back this morning up $100 after a short session; I was up $235 (achieving my daily goal) and lost $135 of it back testing the table for further profits. That left me with $3000 in my wallet. THAT makes me itch to open it up in public and buy in with my playing stake (or even have that much cash on me), so I took $1500 to the bank.

However, I don't know what to do if, hopefully, I can make the profits grow... I know I'm countin' chickens, but one can always hope... This money is "recreational" money--it's not earmarked for anything and is in my mind, "play" money for use at the casino. I dunno if it makes a difference--I don't have a separate account for this money--it's only separate in my head and tallied on an Xcel spreadsheet. (In the bank account, it's part of a minimum balance I keep [and tally as "gambling" money].) All other hobbies and needs are covered with other funds. It'd be nice if I could build it enough so it could function as more than a gambling stake--where I could actually take it out and spend the "extra" stake money. Right now, my gambling money is $3000 stake plus the $1500 winnings I took to the bank... so I could spend the $1500, or...

If I can continue to profit, is there a mathematical point (and where is that) when I should increase my stake and the bets, or should I raise my daily goal and thereby possibly increase my loss limit--how should I plan my long-term play?

What kind of ploys/plays do you all make with your winnings?

Thanks, Guys!

Your winnings become your new bankroll. Simple as that. So your bankroll was $3000. Now it's $4500. Your decision when you go to the casino is this. What is your betting strategy going to be? Say it's $160 across for a couple of hits, then regress to $66 inside for one hit then take and press every other hit from there. Or something like that. That would make your average bet around $140 based on an average of 3.5 decisions per game (not hand). If you want to base it per hand it'd be an average of around $115 per hand. So your average bet would be between $115 and $140. Pick a number that you like in there. Say $120.

To play $120 per hand the old rule of thumb says your average buy-in should be around $1200. So that's your session buy in. That's how much you take to the casino if you're going to play one session. That's how much you buy in for.

If you are SMART you do not bring any more than that because you don't want to be tempted to do a re-buy in the event you lose that $1200 but have convinced yourself that things HAVE to turn around. Believe me - they don't have to and probably won't. If you bring a back-up $600 for a re-buy then odds are you'll give that to them and walk out broke - so bring what you're willing to buy in for and lose and not a dime more.

If you want to play two sessions - you'll need to bring $2400, but that's getting deep into your base bankroll, so you may want to re-think your betting strategy at that point and adjust your bet size down OR regress your bets earlier. Instead of playing two hits and regress, play one hit and regress. Maybe take a steeper regression if possible. I do this all the time. Regress from $110 inside to just a $24 Six and Eight.

A good way to break down your cash in your wallet into session size amounts is to use post-it notes. If you want to buy in for $620, my average buy-in on $10 - $15 tables, put six $100's and one $20 in your wallet and stick a post-it note on the $20 with $620 written on it. Then stick another six $100's and another $20 in front of that with another post-it note on that $20 with $620 on it until you run out of $100's and $20's. Anything you have left-over - put it in a bank envelope and write "Casino Bankroll" on it and stick it in your sock drawer in your dresser in your bedroom. Or wherever you stash money around the house. Just don't tell your wife what or where it is. LOL.

Honestly, in addition to keeping $5 - $10K in my casino gaming checking account all of the time, I typically have a thousand or two stashed in one of my "secret" hiding places at home (in the gun safe - where my wife never looks - I don't think she can even open the thing) in addition to my "walking around" cash. Because you just never know when you might need it, right? Be like a Boy Scout, is my motto.

Thanks very MUCH, Heavy! this makes a lot of sense out of a frazzle of ideas I had runnin' through my head. I'm still trying to settle on a betting scheme. The one I'm using is "lacking" in "potency" but I'll tackle that in another thread momentarily.

Your "$160 Across" advice gives me some ideas but I have a question about the regression step--you said, "regress to $66 inside for one hit then take and press every other hit from there"... I understood the "take and press every other hit" but not "$66 Inside for one hit"--did you mean by that--to regress to $66 Inside, then take the next winnings (as the "one hit"), and from that point "take and press"? it's not an important point in the betting scheme, it's a matter of nomenclature and I want to understand the sentence structure in order to apply it correctly in my mind when I read it about other betting schemes ("for one hit, then take and press [alternately])."

Thanks also for the advice--"bring only what you've set as a session limit" (if I may paraphrase)... THAT omission has cost me dearly a couple times in the last 20-25 sessions, where I rebought beyond my psychological limit.

Lastly, the Post-it note idea... I dog-ear the corners of my $100 bills in sets of 5; I know that every dog-eared set of $100s is $500 as they lay in my wallet. I've never kept four $100 bills next to the sets--I'll store three, two or one $100 bills with the dog-eared sets of fives, but the last $100 (that would make $400) is in a separate division of the wallet stored as $20s, 10s, 5s & 1s... and I buy in according to "chance"-- with whatever "spare" $100s I have plus a dog-eared set--so my buy in could be $500-800--but I like your idea of setting a buy-in in $600 sets. That's a very comfortable number that fits my session betting scheme better (than especially $500 does).

Thanks very much!

Okay, let's say I have my bets up to some weird number like $186 and I've racked $126. I regress to $66 inside. That increases my profit in the rack to $246. I now have $66 action. The next hit pays $21. SAME BET. Rack $21 and I have $267 in the rack. Next the Nine rolls and it pays $21. Make it look like $35 (full press) and rack $1. Do NOT let those MF's in Vegas convince you "Let me make it $36 and I'll just pay you $50 when it hits." No, because they'll keep that dollar if the Seven shows. If they want to do that you say, "Fine, make it a $25 Buy bet and I'll pay the $1 juice up front. You pay me $53 when it rolls. Deer in the headlights look. "We don't do buy bets on the Five and nine." You: "Then give me my damn dollar and you can pay me $50 for $1 when it hits." Next the Eight Rolls. Same bet. Next the Six rolls. Pays $21. Drop $3. "Make it look like $42." This is the famous $18 to $42 Heavy Power Press on the Six and Eight. It pays $50 for $1 when it rolls again. Next the Eight rolls. Same bet. Next the Nine rolls again. Drop a dollar and say "50 for $1." Yes, this is an every other roll press strategy but you MUST collect the first time a pressed up bet hits. You'll press it next time it rolls. Let's say it repeats the next roll. Nine rolls again. Dealer says $50 for $1 - same bet? You say: "Make it look like $75." Drop the dollar and the dealer gives you $10 change and sets up the $75 bet. Onward thru the fog.

Press schedule - remember - press every other hit unless a pressed up number hits - then you must collect it before pressing it again.

Six and eight:
18 - pays 21 - rack first hit
18 - pays 21 - drop 3 - press to 42
42 - pays 50 for 1 - rack first hit
42 - pays 50 for 1 - go to 90 - collect 1
90 - pays 105 - add 1 to the 5 and place the six or eight for the dealers - rack 100
90 - pays 105 - go to 180 - collect 15 and rack it
180 - pays 210 - rack it
180 - pays 210 - drop 30 and press to 420
420 pays 500 for 10 (same as 42 papys 50 for 1) rack it'
420 pays 500 for 10 - press to $900 - rack 10
900 pays $1050 - $50 dealer hand in - rack 1000
900 pays 1050 - go to $1800 - rack 150
1800 pays 2100 - rack it
now put on your big boy shorts
1800 pays 2100 - drop $300 - press to $4200
$4200 pays $5000 for $100 rack it
$4200 pays $5000 for $100 - go to table max - typically $5000 or $6000.

Notice the pattern is the same throughout the progression - you're just adding zeros to the 18 - 42 - 90 progresion.

Five and Nine:

15 pays 21 - Same bet - lock up first hit
15 pays 21 - Press to $35 - lock up $1
35 pays $50 for $1 - lock it up
$25 pays $50 for $1 - Press to $75 and lock up $10
$75 pays $105 - bet a $5 Five or Nine for the dealers and lock up $100
$75 pays $105 - Press to $150

The rest of the progression follows the same concept as the Six and Eight Progression - simply adding zeros to the above series.

$150 goes to $350 which goes to $750, then to $1500, then $2500, then Table Max. Again, Press and Take every other hit. Never Press a bet until you have taken a hit on the pressed up bet.

IF you wish to be more aggressive you can PRESS the first bet out of the gate, but then COLLECT two bets at SAME BET before pressing another bet. This gives you the OPPORTUNITY to collect on a pressed up bet without getting too far our of sync with the normal progression and getting too much action on the table too quickly. This is already an aggressive strategy. You don't want to push it any/much harder than it already is.

The Four and Ten are easy peasy:

15 - 25 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 1000 - 2500 - 5000

I jump from 100 to 250 because I'm a greedy SOB and I want that purple chip - NOT IN MY RACK - but on the table. When I get that purple chip on the table I've already collected $425 so I'm not sweating losing it. It's a FREE $425 bet. When I get $1000 on the table I've already racked $925. Do I give a rat's ass about that yellow chip "at risk" out there? Of course I do. I'll turn my bets off if I see ANY reason to. But most of the time it'll be up and on because why? I'm a greedy SOB and I'm looking forward to pressing it up to $2500 on the next hit. I CANNOT LOSE on this hand because of what I already have racked. I'm going for table max and am looking for about a half dozen hits at $10K a pop. I want some lucky-ass randy to pay my mortgage off and put a little island hopping money in the bank for me. Bring on the Fours and Tens. I'll stand at the table for a week if you'll keep tossing them. He'll, I'll have them bring me a cot so I can camp out at the table. Beer for my horses. Whatever it takes. We're not leaving this table until the ugly number shows, and then we're giving this guy the dice right back and hopping the Fours and Tens. Let 'er rip.

Thanks very much again! I'm sorry you went to all that typing; I didn't mean to imply I was "lost" about the betting scheme.

I've got the 12-18-30-42-90-180-300 down for the 6/8 (I also like your 6/8 combo bet: 18-30-48-78 for both numbers and collect $211 for four hits between them and reduce to 18 each--those bets baffle the dealers)
I know the 5/9 bets, too--though I press differently--10-24-60-140-300 (I've only ever got the 300 to 500; my biggest bet ever but it died there. The bad thing is, my ploy is a go-for-broke scheme on the 5/9; I don't make a cent until I regress at some point)

I've done the 4/10 as 10-25-50-100-250, but never had a hand that paid there, either.

Thanks again!