Another Don't System

[Americraps]

Yesterday, after a visit to my local Dentist for some drilling on my teeth and into my wallet, I visited my local joint and ran into a guy that was playing an interesting don't progression.
Hopping sevens in $3 increments on successive rolls.
He went 8 levels- $3, $6, $9, $12, $15, $18, $21, $24, quit. His system calls for no more bets on that shooter once you get to that point which is a total of $108. I watched him violate his own rules when a guy layed out a 30 roll hand. He got some of his money back on the ending seven, but he would have been better off taking the $108 loss. Discipline is a must with any betting strategy.
He began his progression on the 1st roll of every shooter. Profits are as follows
Bet.....total.....payout.....net.........
3.........3..........$16.........$16.....
6.........9...........$32........$23....
9.........18.........$48.........$30...
12......30............$64.......$34...
15......45...........$80........$35..
18.......63..........$96.........$33..
21.......84...........$112......$28..
24.......108.........$128......$20..

This guy was still up when I left even though he got creamed a couple of times because he violated his system.
I decided to modify it and try for myself, and it worked very well. I like it because the $108 wipeout isn't crippling, and you have many wins before you get there. So far, I haven't been wiped out, but I'm sure that won't last long.
I start with a $5 DP and don't do anything else till the shooter 7's out, makes his point, or rolls 6 or more times.

During those 6 rolls, I am evaluating the shooters toss. If I think he has any influence, I will place a 6 and 8 on him for table min and place the point, leaving my DP up, but not replacing it. If a hand develops, I will add a comebet and 1x odds, pressing as the hand goes. If I think the shooter is random, somewhere around roll 6, I will begin the $3 hopping progression. If Randy makes his point at roll 4 or so, I will add a chip to my DP and begin the 7's hop progression. Each time they make a pl winner, I replace the DP. If it's been a real long hand, I will eventually lay odds to try to recoup losses.

I had some small losses on individual hands, but was a good judge of my tablemates skills and won at both sessions at 2 different casinos. I should have been hopping the sevens on myself, as I was not throwing particularly well for either of those 2 sessions until my last hand, which made multiple points. I had the 8 pressed to $120 from a starting point of $12. I won the tall of the all/tall twice in that session and needed 1 number both times to complete the alltall.

My shooting confidence is high and it's sweet to be back.

[Americraps]

Thanks guys. 4 in a row winners now.

[bassdice]

Americraps looks good I will try it tomorrow only thing I would change is to wait for two rolls then start betting don't know if this will be better or not.

[heavy]

Keep us updated. We may want you to run through that strategy with us in Tunica!

[Americraps]

I have rejiggered the hopping 7's progression. Until now, I have been starting at roll 6 and quitting at the $24 mark (roll 13) but twice last night, shooters 7nd out on roll 14, right after I gave up. For the record, I crashed 3 times last night, and on top of that, I shot like crap, so I lost $331.
The new, safer, hopping 7s strategy is designed to bust out a lot less - doesn't make as much per shooter, but wins on more shooters. It starts off at roll 5 instead of 6, and extends to roll 19, instead of 13, hopefully avoiding frequent BR pain. It's hugely important to accurately assess the shooters you are betting against. If the shooter keeps the dice together, has a consistant, soft toss, its a mistake to bet against them. I haven't tried this progression yet, but will report tomorrow after my session with $5Bill....No, I won't be betting against $5Bill.

Roll #....Bet.....total.....payout.....and down net.......
5……….....3.........3..........$16.........$16.....
6……….....3…...….6……......$16…...….$13….
7……....….3…...….9……......$16……....$10….
8……….....3……...12…....….$16….......$7…..
9……....….6….....18..........$32.........$20....
10…….....6……...24…......…$32…....…$14….
11…….....6…..….30….....….$32…...….$8….
12…….....9.......39...........$48........$18....
13………...9…..….48…........$48…....….$9.…
14...….…12….....60..........$64........$16....
15……....15.......75..........$80.........$20....
16……....18.......93..........$96….......$21…
17……..…21......114.........$112….....$19....
18……....24......138.........$128........$14…
19………..30…...168…........$160……...$22...
20 Fahgettaboutit loser! ............
The payouts average a little over $15, so you have to win on 11 shooters for every 1 that you lose on to be in the black. How many 19 roll hands do you see Randies having in a night? If your pockets are suitably deep, you could always double up the values after you get knocked off to get even. (Or deeper in the hole)

[SHOOTITALL]

Amer: When I saw this hopping seven thing the other day, that is exactly what I did to tweak it. The other was, well too volital. What interest me on it was that this seems to be ready made for card craps. Keep after it and let us know. sia

[Americraps]

Hey Snake Eyes- The across the board lay on the CO is a cool idea. I know of one other DI who does that.

SIA- I think there is more tweeking ahead.

My very first shooter of the day 7nd out on roll #19, my last bet, later another guy did the same thing. I wasn't able to collect on many shooters today as there are a lot of dis at my local place. At least, I think they are DIs. They set, and have a nice smooth delivery, same every time. I've seen a lot of them go on nice long runs.

Unfortunately, I lost a bundle on all of them today, betting rightside, myself and $5Bill included. I think I frequently over estimate other DIs skill. As far as my own shooting goes, the DP is haunting me and i didn't have the brains to shift my set from the straight sixes, or cut back my betting. Re the progression, I busted out twice. Both times the shooter sevened out about 5 rolls after i had stopped betting. I had planned on keeping detailed records, but left my worksheet at home, so I didn't jot down hand length. I think the progression was a loser today, but I lost 80% of it on rightside betting.

[amish dude]

Both times the shooter sevened out about 5 rolls

then bet on me I usely 7en out after 7 to 8 rolls on average! and have been known to roll up to 20 rolls and making 3 pass's

[Americraps]

I have lost money playing this 7 hop strategy quitting at the $30 mark (roll 19, when starting at roll #5). It's just not enough coverage. When I see a chicken feeder just randomly whipping the dice down the table, I have been waiting till around roll 8 (instead of 5) after the point has been set, and extending the progression past $30. It worked once when the guy made a seven and I had $60 out there. I still lost money on the hand, but only $40 or so, which I easily made up on the other shooters. I don't remember exactly how I bet it, I think it was this ....$30, $36, $45, $54, $60. SHould have made a $66 bet there, but I was gonna give it a couple of trys at $60 then give up. I think it was around roll 27 that he finally went down. He made the all tall small on that hand, and I had a $5PL with $5 odds that I collected a few times on.

[wild child]

Americraps

There is room for a DARK SIDE PHILOSOPHY actively incorporated into our Game Within-a-Game per craps session
Have you "War Gamed" a strategy for betting "other people hands" by with entering a DON'T GAME STRATEGY ,bypassing the FIRST PASS LINE sequence entirely ?

Then enter the DARK SIDE only after P/L # second is established and if the wager is lost to the NUMBER REPEATING , DOUBLE UP on $ amount risked on a wager after P/L # third is established ????????

The propensity of numbers rolled diminishes as hands become long in the tooth( RUN ON )
Do you think ,Your BANK ROLL may see less exercise with a higher PERCENTAGE correct decisions ?

On an crowded active table,you would most likely NO BET more than PLACE WAGERS AT RISK.

W C

[Americraps]

Hi Wild Child,
So bypass the first co sequence and place a DP once the guy makes his point? If lose, double up and keep doubling on losses till win? That sounds like the MPs choppy table short leash, which I have tried, and liked by the way.... Until I got knocked off, then I swore off negative progressions for ever. Since ever is over, (is ever ever really over?) I've been dabbling again.

[wild child]

.
Let's postulate that more craps hands terminate with less than 19 tosses ,whatever numbers are rolled.

The probability is that far greater number of craps hands terminate in fewer than 19 rolls than the number of tosses rolled greater than 19 . Why nineteen ? Only to have a starting point.............

Perhaps 12 rolls is TAPS for more hands than those greater than the dozen mark.

If most attempts catch THE SEVEN OUT in 5 or less,the percentage of rolls or tosses becomes smaller as the hand matures or gets long in the tooth........

Consider if you get beyond the P S O & Point,number 7 OUT,there may be some harvest to exploit.

A player could cover the inside #'s and go I S R or say: " Take my bets down .please" and be done with betting until the next shooter.

There are sequences of events when a timely placed DON'T BET takes home THE BONUS BUCKS.
Ever clock/chart a table when near EVERY SHOOTER goes 5 and OUT? or 6 or 9 or whatever???

Even a world renowned champion D I may only hit the HIGH NOTES with less frequency than the smaller in number bread and butter smaller to modest events.....

If a player can fund his DARK SIDE WAGERS from winnings gathered on the DO SIDE.......
Just an idea that may pay dividends...

Bet THE FARM ? I think a PRUDENT PERSON would know better.......

Grind out a series of TAKE HOME chip$ .....I find that move attractive .
Craps offers few trophies. Taking more $$ out than $ brought in seems a good way to keep score.

I may have it all wrong.

Just me saying
W C

[Golfer]

I once played late at the Venetian and was doing well shooting from the PL and betting all others on the darkside. A couple of young'ins come up and I win against the 1st one. One of the girls takes the dice and starts flinging. I quit her after about 5 points made and stopped betting. I started again after point 7 or 8 was made, and went large. She did not make her 12th point but effectively cleaed me out, losing all my prior winnings, my buy in and one more buy in.

It can get ugly. Yeah the odds are in your favor for long rolls but that didn't make me feel any better leaving that table.

Use caution and set a limit.

Golfer

[eastcoast]

seems to me for the DP- 5,6 rolls or less when they 7 out, seems better over all that when the hands get over 8 or 10 rolls, they seem to hit their point more often, especially when a lot of Darksiders are on the DP. I have mentioned it before, at the Sands in Pa, I saw a guy keep a No4 bet the whole time I was watching, he got stung a couple times, but for the most part, he did ok, no other bets, just that.

[wild child]

.
QUOTE :
" If a player can fund his DARK SIDE WAGERS from winnings gathered on the DO SIDE.......
Just an idea that may pay dividends...

Bet THE FARM ? I think a PRUDENT PERSON would know better.......

Grind out a series of TAKE HOME chip$ .....I find that move attractive .
Craps offers few trophies. Taking more $$ out than $ brought in seems a good way to keep score."

END QUOTE

In my youngster decades,I many times visited friends in Mexico.......My host enjoyed attending
the bull fights. I attended because my host enjoyed the event and he treated..........The contest seemed a fix in favor of El' MATADOR
HOWEVER on two occasions el toro seized the day... He who avoids emotional attachment to fight beyond HIS LOSS LIMIT and leaves the arena may easily return later to pick up a victory.

Just me saying

W C

[SHOOTITALL]

WC: I went to a fight in Matamoras back in the sixties. One bull gutted a horse, another gored a matador. They do win sometimes. Oh, yea, they showed bullfights on tv there on sundays.

[heavy]

These days I don't think anybody gets out of Matamoras alive.

[Americraps]

MP suggested that I wait till after the point has been set to begin counting, and that's been working out. SOmetimes I wait as long as ten rolls after the shooter has set the point before beggining the progression. I have also dabbled with right side place bets and a PL bet while waiting to begin hopping red with some success. I have escaped being knocked off the progression for the last 5 or so sessions. 1 time I extended it to $60 and still lost money, but only $50 or so, not a total wipeout. It's easy to make back $50, but not $400 or $500. I miss a lot of quick winners, but that's OK, it's more about avoiding the big losses than anything.

[wild child]

Matamoras,Mexico City,Monterrey.Guadalajara.......and even via T V......It is a blood "sport"..

You could take the perspective : In many ways THE CASINO slaughters YOUR BANK ROLL..........
We are cautioned on the SHORT TERM Vs THE LONG RUN.
Our best ( SHORT TERM )efforts may only draw attention of the occasional horse or careless matador.
In the above example,THE HOUSE smugly says " Some few days ,the bovine wins" !!!!!!!!!

S-o-o-o-o-O.....Our "bovine" needs to be VERY NIMBLE to stay in the game.

We could say ,Sir Loin traveled a long distance,booked a room,grazed the hay buffet,flirted with the heifers and at one time may have been ahead on points. Had Sir Loin been able cash out and leave the arena,he could have lived on his points and again profited on a future visit.

Just me saying

W C

[Americraps]

WC- Now that's taking the bull by the horns....