Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

After completing a B.T. book of rolls, I got the D.T. Plus chart below from the Forum Posts.
I have a few questions, I'm sure some you out there can clarify this for me.

Under "Place Bets", on the place 4 or 10 it reads -3.98%. On the Buy Bets for 4 or 10 commission on win and commission up front @$25 it reads 1.51% and -1.08%, respectively. The negative sign (-) indicates the house has an edge.

Yet, if you scroll down on Buy 4 commission up front and commission on win it reads 10.44% and 13.33%, respectively. On the Buy 10 commission up front and commission on win it reads 11.21% and 8.38%, respectively. In this case, I apparently have an edge.

Can someone out there clarify the difference?

I understand perfectly well this is a very small sample of rolls to justifiably use to form a betting strategy. However, if you were to use the results from the chart below, what would be your betting strategy?



Betting Edge Results from DiceTool Plus

[tr][td][b] Tracked Results [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] BET [/b][/td][td][b] Per Bet [/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Pass Line and Odds [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Pass/Come [/td][td] -0.66% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Odds on 6 or 8 [/td][td] 4.29% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Odds on 5 or 9 [/td][td] 2.24% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Odds on 4 or 10 [/td][td] 2.88% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Place Bets [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 6 or 8 [/td][td] 2.71% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 5 or 9 [/td][td] -1.85% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 4 or 10 [/td][td] -3.98% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 3 or 11, Crapless [/td][td] -1.03% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 2 or 12, Crapless [/td][td] 1.11% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Buy Bets: Commission on Win @: [/b][/td][td][b] $25 [/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 5 or 9 [/td][td] 0.60% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 4 or 10 [/td][td] 1.51% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 3 or 11, Crapless [/td][td] 4.51% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 2 or 12, Crapless [/td][td] 8.27% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Buy Bets: Commission Up Front @: [/b][/td][td][b] $25 [/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 5 or 9 [/td][td] -1.70% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 4 or 10 [/td][td] -1.08% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 3 or 11, Crapless [/td][td] 1.51% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 2 or 12, Crapless [/td][td] 4.70% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Proposition Bets [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Hard 6 or 8 [/td][td] -3.11% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Hard 4 or 10 [/td][td] -0.86% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Field bets, 3x on 12 [/td][td] -1.91% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Field bets, 2x on 12 [/td][td] -4.83% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Proposition Bets paid: X To 1 [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 2 or 12, at 30 to 1 [/td][td] -9.58% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 3 or 11, at 15 to 1 [/td][td] -9.17% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Horn [/td][td] -9.38% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] World [/td][td] -13.23% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Proposition Bets paid: X For 1 [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 2 or 12, at 30 for 1 [/td][td] -12.50% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 3 or 11, at 15 for 1 [/td][td] -14.84% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Horn [/td][td] -13.67% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] World [/td][td] -15.10% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Tracked Results [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] BET [/b][/td][td][b] Per Bet [/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b] Place Bets as Tracked [/b][/td][td] [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 4, commission up front [/td][td] 10.44% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 4, commission on win [/td][td] 13.33% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 4 [/td][td] 7.20% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 5 [/td][td] 0.65% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 6 [/td][td] 7.32% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 8 [/td][td] -6.49% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 9 [/td][td] 5.70% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Place 10 [/td][td] 5.20% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 10, commission on win [/td][td] 11.21% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Buy 10, commission up front [/td][td] 8.38% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Field bets, 3x on 12 [/td][td] 5.83% [/td][/tr] [tr][td] Field bets, 2x on 12 [/td][td] 2.08% [/td][/tr]


Respectfully,
Nune

Nune, I believe you are asking the difference between Buy bets with commission up front vs. commission on win. If that is the question here is what I believe to be the answer. If you play in Atlantic City they take the buy commission up front. So to bet $20 buy 4 or $20 buy 10 it costs you $21 to make the bet. When you get paid, you get paid $40, but they will charge you another $1 to keep the bet up.

If you play at most places in Tunica for example when you buy the 4 or 10 for $20 you give the dealer $20. When you win you get $40, but they charge you $1 on the win. So the commission on a win saves you $1 if you never hit 4 or 10 and win the buy bet.
Make sense?

I think he's asking why 4/10 combined says 1.51% while individually they are 10.44% / 8.38% (pig vig)

Thanks al_falcons. Actually, my question was about the disparity given in edge (EV). You are given a -3.98% edge, then you are given a 10.44% edge, two contradicting figures. On the one hand the house has an edge, on the other you have an edge. I just don't understand how to interpret the difference. Sorry, I did not make myself clear.

Respectfully,
Nune

Nune, I think if you read the labels carefully you will see the difference in what the two numbers represent, and answer your own question.

(hint: FF vs Tracked)

I went back to the user guide in B.T. w/ D.T. to try to undersand the difference between the Foundation Frequency metric versus the Tracked results, but to no avail. I'm completely lost in space.

Respectfully,
Nune

On the chart above it is given as follows:

Place Bets:

Place 6 or 8 2.71%

Place 5 or 9 -1.85%

Place 4 or 10 -3.98%


Now, I went back to my B.T. w /D.T. and on the Dice Tool tab it is given as follows:

Place Bets:

Place 6 or 8 2.7% (same as chart above)
Place 5 or 9 -1.9% (same as chart above)
Buy 4 or 10, commission on win 1.2% (not same as chart above)

So, this only adds to my confusion.

Respectfully,
Nune

Nune,

Here is a re-post regarding Foundation-Frequencies:
--------------------------------------------------------------

Use the DT HA/PA results carefully and as indicators, not as actual expectations.

DiceTool provides a model, an approximation based on your tracked foundation frequencies. Use it as an indication of what is possible and then test the theory with either practice/mock betting or through tracking in-casino play.

The whole DiceTool Foundation Frequency(FF) “mapping” versus the BoneTracker “tracking” thing is really easier than my poor convoluted explanations make it seem. Let me take a stab at a better explanation by using a specific example.

We know that DiceTool maps your FF values to a provided dice set. Lets use a P6 permutation as an example to highlight the mapping process. We tell DiceTool that we are setting the dice to 3/1-3/1, either through the entry on the Roll-Data tab or through the override on the DiceTool tab. Ok, based on this DiceTool can figure out the Primary Face combinations of the Set. So what are the PF combinations?
~ Tops: 3-3
~ Facing: 1-1
~ Bottoms: 4-4
~ Backs: 6-6

Now what does DiceTool work with? It works with FF values. Individual dice rolls are assigned to an FF category. For example we may tell DiceTool that we had 100 PF results in our data set. Do the FF values tell us how many of the PF hits were 3-3’s? No, all DiceTool knows is that there were 100 PF’s. What DiceTool does is takes an average, or an approximation, by evenly dividing the 100 PF’s across the 4 PF combinations. Following our example, DiceTool allocates the 100 PF’s like this:
~ 25 of the 3-3’s (sixes)
~ 25 of the 1-1’s (twos)
~ 25 of the 4-4’s (eights)
~ 25 of the 6-6’s (twelves)

DiceTool performs similar mappings for the Double Pitches (DP), the Single Pitches (SP), and so on. But for now let’s stick with just the Primary Face hits…

How does this mapping result in identical calculated Edge Values for different permutations? Take another P6 permutation as an example: 1/4-1/4. What are the Primary Face combinations for this Set?
~ Tops: 1-1
~ Facing: 4-4
~ Bottoms: 6-6
~ Backs: 3-3

Do you notice that although the order is changed, it is the same list of PF’s as we had with the 3/1-3/1 set? And, again, if we follow the FF mapping strategy of DiceTool over 100 PF results we get the following:
~ 25 of the 1-1’s (twos)
~ 25 of the 4-4’s (eights)
~ 25 of the 6-6’s (twelves)
~ 25 of the 3-3’s (sixes)

Notice the mapping produces the same results. This is because the two-dice PF combinations are the same and only the positions of the combinations are changing. DiceTool maps these permutations to identical results.

What if you more dramatically change the permutation of the set. For example you double pitch the P6 and set it up as 6/3-1/4. Now our hypothetical 100 PF's results are mapped as follows:
~ 25 of the 6-1’s (sevens)
~ 25 of the 3-4’s (sevens)
~ 25 of the 1-6’s (sevens)
~ 25 of the 4-3’s (sevens)

All 100 PF's mapped out as Sevens.

Will your actual toss results match DiceTools mapped results directly? No! If you review your specific PF face results (on the TossStats Tab), it is highly unlikely that you will find an even distribution of your PF results over the four PF combinations.

In other words, if you looked at how many 4-4 combinations you really tossed, you will probably find that you tossed more then, or less then, the twenty five 4-4 combinations that the DT Model allocated in the above example. Your actual tracked results translate to more or less eights and so the probability of tossing an eight is actually more or less than what DT models. If the probability of tossing a number changes, then the Edge results change. Edge is a calculation of probability compared to amount wagered vs winnings.

But, on the other hand, if you check how far different your actual count is from the averaged count, it is also highly unlikely that you will find a wild swing between the PF results either. This is why I am comfortable with the results that DiceTool produces.

I’ll say it again; DiceTool provides a model, an approximation based on your tracked foundation frequencies. Use it as an indication of what is possible and then test the theory with either practice/mock betting or through tracking in-casino play.


--------------------------------------------------------------

Here is another post that talks a little about the origins of DiceTool and the use of the Override features.

Tracking the Bones

Thanks MP and Maddog for sharing some light on how your outcomes are equally distributed into the 5 Foundation Frequency. I can see that on the 5 FFs each Primary Hit is awarded .25, each Single Pitch is awarded .125, each Double Pitch is awarded .25, etc.

However, my confusion is still lies on the Foundation Frequency Metric (Future Sessions) versus Tracked (Specific Session). From the chart above, to me all the outcomes are Tracked. From the chart above which results belong to the FF metric and which ones belong to the Tracked?

Bottom line, I'm trying to come up with a betting strategy using the results from the chart above, but I don't know how to go about it.

Respectfully,
Nune

Thanks, Maddog and I aplogize for being such a pain in the A... You gave such a detailed explantion on how to interpret the information given on Dice Tool. It surely cleared all my confusion.

The following statement cleared up all my confusion, "The lower right corner of the screen, labeled as "Place Bets as Tracked", does not use the FF model mappings, but instead uses the direct probabilities for each number as calculated from your sample/tracked rolls."

Again, thanks for taking the time to respond to my question. I'm going to save your last response.

Respectfully,
Nune