Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I love this bet on the table. I hit 3 ATS bets and 1 small so far. Came close to hitting the ATS twice the same night at biagio, just could not get the 2/12 both times. Second time throwing, started out with the set of 6(top) 2(facing me), 2 (top) 4 (facing me). Hit all the numbers expect the 2/12 so change the set to crossed 6's. I had about 6 numbers hit before I seven out with that set. I seven out with a 6-1. Do you think this bet will stay around with the casinos?

Back from another trip. I bet the 4-2-4 again, every time I held the dice. I decided to try throwing from the end again with a backhanded "overhand" delivery. (I'm usually SL1, underhand) In five hands, I hit the All Small once, the All Tall twice, and missed ALL because I couldn't hit the '2' to finish the set. I had 7 tries at it, too, but a double pitch killed me. Can't get greedy I guess. (I was 4 for 5-- $560 for 5 hands on my ATS bets) I'm considering just playing a single PL w/10x odds just to bet the ATS's; it sure can't hurt.

1) My thought process comes to the conclusion that an inside box number is "insurable", but I dunno about any of the others. Is there a way to hedge the ALL bet when yo or a crap number is the last number required?


2) At what point could this theoretical "consistency" be profitable on a crapless table? That is to ask, what should my betting strategy be at the crapless game? How do I 'weight' the betting in my favor when the 11 won't pay on the come out? Without the ATS there, it seems much more risky, odd as it sounds.

3) No one's answered my question from earlier... if the '4' was the last number I needed to hit the ALL bet:

... with the 4 outstanding, I felt the "shadow" of a hedge--fortunately, it was the '4' I needed. Guaranteed "win" or not, I hate laying the 4 or 10, and that was the deciding factor on why I didn't lay insurance on the 4. I had to bet so much on the 4 to salvage part of the possible $560 payoff ($4-All Small, $2-ALL and $10-hard 4), that it just wasn't worth laying the bet. Lay $500 to guarantee $250, when the payoff is only double (and "equal" to my $500 'risk')? I don't think so. At least, that's my logic--was it faulty?

Hello to all:

I don't often play craps where the ATS is available, so it is still a novelty for me.. I absolutely love this bet and have won many times with it. During the H & H biloxi trip I won the tall twice, the small once, and the all once. When I was shooting at the IP I slide into SR! with some chips and the guy next to me won the whole bet 3 shots later. I shot a 40 roll hand next, and lacked everything but the 2! Dang would have been two shooters in a row!!

Here's my rundown on the bet:

PRO'S :

It keeps the boxman busy. Often they are so busy keeping up with "back up agains" and whose chips are whose, they are not looking at the dice. Many good chances to avoid the back wall.

With the roll tracking involved, at a glance you can see which numbers have, or have not, been rolled.

On a $10 table with a bet of say $3 $4 $3 across, your "back up again" after a come out 7, is a wash. ALoha Johnny said the nugget was not taking your passline bet after a 7. Was that a mistake?

It is not that difficult to hit at least some part of the bet, even with a hand of as little as 6-10 rolls. I have seen all of em hit on a hand of 14 rolls.

As Heavy mentioned, it is a great dealor bet.

Almost the whole table has a "common cause" and roars when the ATS gets hit. fun..

As the shooter I like to have a moment or two in between shots, the ATS bet will slow the game down for me at times.


CONS:

The come out roll is no longer a "free roll", or setting for the 7's roll.

For those of you that like the dice back quickly, the ATS bet can slow down the game sometimes. But sometimes there tends to be a little less action in the middle.

It sucks you in, like the fire bet.. You hate to get left out of the potential hooping and hollering.

If you LET IT, It can distract you as the shooter. and you can be tempted to change your set and rhythm to hit that last number.

MY PLAY:

I often hedge the last number of any part of the bet. Nothing better than "booking the house". DUring Howards stellar roll at the Lard Cock (hard rock) , He only lacked the 2, and I had $15 across on the ATS. Potential payoff of $1,050. I hopped the red 6 times or so in a row, for $30 each roll. I was paid well when the 7 showed, and protected my large place bets along the way.

"Booking the house" always brings a smile to my face. At the IP on Monday as the shooter, I only lacked the 5 to complete the small. I was on the ATS for $15 across. Potential payoff of $175. I laid on the 5 for $90. I was either gonna win $85 or $60 (less vig). NO POTENTIAL LOSS ! I win much more often on these lay hedge bets, than waiting for some aspect of the ATS to hit. Besides there is a certain feeling of power and control when you can "book the house" . I have lay bet as much as $600 on a 4, being it was the last number to win the whole All and small. Even though I still have a lot of gambler in me, I can not resist "booking the house", when I can.

good luck to all
pradice

pradice wrote:

your "back up again" after a come out 7, is a wash. ALoha Johnny said the nugget was not taking your passline bet after a 7. Was that a mistake?

good luck to all
pradice

That is correct Golden nugget did not take the bet down during a come out natural Aloha had 4 of them and my ATS was still up !

Nice summary Pradice and good usage of Lard Cock

Do you, or others use a different set if you are shooting and are on the ATS? I often used the crossed 6s in B if on this bet as I liked to see if I could get some trash numbers posted early on. Downside of course is a couple of craps numbers costs you on the passline but can be a great start to the bet.

In fact that is another pro of the bet isn't it?

Losing your passline to a craps number is less painful if you are on the ATS

London SHooter:

You are exactly right, I forgot that little perk. Yes anytime during an ATS bet I feel like a 2 or 12 counts for maybe $5 -$10 each.

For me a 3 or 11 maybe counts for $3 each. You don't feel like you rolled the trash in vain.. Good Point.

Good idea to start with trash potential sets on the come out. I will try that soon..

pradice

pradice wrote:
I often hedge the last number of any part of the bet. Nothing better than "booking the house".

I don't often hedge any of my bets, but I'm much more likely to on the inside box numbers. I'll "book the house" when the 'leverage' is “in my favor” AND I need to guard against losses--but if I'm even or ahead, I usually ‘let it ride’ solo to see if I can maximize my potential profit.

Obviously the 7 is weighted against me if the 4/10 is the ATS finish-number, and I know the statistical odds dictate that I should always lay the 4 or 10, but it takes so much money to accomplish only "1/2 leverage" for insurance, that I normally just let it ride. Truth be told, I've only had to seek the 4/10 twice, and I'm 50% successful against it so far (ironically--just as the odds say). I suppose the more I bet the ATS-play, the truer my results will be, and my failure to ‘book the house’ against the 4/10 will cost me opportunities.

But if the stats are "true", it seems to me that hedging either the 4 or 10 actually only breaks even against the opportunity cost over the true LONG term--that is to say, for every time the 7 pays off the lay 4 (or 10) bet (with a $300 payoff), the corresponding time when the 4/10 wins, that winning occurrence costs what's been laid--for instance, a $600 lay on the 4 would require three finishing 7's against 4's (or 10's combined--as the singular finish-number) in order to show a profit on that bet for each time the ATS finishes with a winning 4 or 10.

pradice wrote:DUring Howards stellar roll at the Lard Cock (hard rock) , He only lacked the 2, and I had $15 across on the ATS. Potential payoff of $1,050. I hopped the red 6 times or so in a row, for $30 each roll. I was paid well when the 7 showed, and protected my large place bets along the way.

This play doesn't make any sense to me, in any amount; somebody clear me up, please... the potential payoff is $1050, (with no consideration for the 'real' losses incurred when the 7 wipes out all the place bets). So the "opportunity cost" is $1050, and the real loss will be the placed bets. In this example, hopping the 7's six times for $30 cost a total of $180. The payoff on any 7, according to my Craps simulator, would be $150--my logic says hopping the sevens didn't cover itself, much less ANY costs (losses)--'opportunity' cost nor 'real'--but that hopping the 7's in this case actually cost $30 extra. Isn't that correct?

I also see the hedge not only as ineffective, but negligible—if it were to pay off on the first hit, the hedge would only net $150 against the theoretical $1050—which could come at anytime, costing $30 for each roll—and assuming the All Small (for sake of argument) is the unresolved bet, it’s only “about” a 2-1/3 to-1 underdog to the hop-the-7’s bet (All Small is 35-to-1 vs. hop-the 7’s at 15-to-1)—I’d argue the (2-12)ALL-killer “7” is ‘covered’ by the 35-to-1 payoff odds. (Granted they’re not true and pure odds, but that’s the nature of the game.)

If I was worried about large-amount of money as place bets while hunting for a last number to hit the ALL's, I'd probably regress or actually turn off the place bets and just run a pure hunt on the outstanding number. (as an example, with $1050 as the possible payout, I'd probably regress $400+ on the box numbers down to $54 across and start a hard press all over again, collecting any number on its' 3rd or 4th parlay. At least that way, win or lose, the proposition is "double or nothing" with 'nothing' risked.)

Another reason I don’t lay the 4/10-- I don't usually come in heeled enough to hedge a $300 4/10 in good conscience when weighed against the rest of my buy-in. (as I exampled earlier, losing that $300 once to the finishing '4' would require three finishing 7's against 3 separate ATS last-number 4/10 scenarios for me to "make money"—I’d need a theoretical $900 in my pocket just to lay a $300 4, and I HAVE TO HAVE a 7 at least once in 3 plays to break even. But I hedge the way I do because my thinking is probably all skewed up.)

Something else occurred to me about repeated 7's-hopping bets-- every time the hop bet is repeated, the odds are an accumulative half of what they were just one roll previously.

That is to say, a $30 hop that loses requires another in order to recoup. That $30 hop, added to the first loss, means the payoff odds are now actually 7-1/2 to 1. Lose the second hop and bet a third, and the accumulated odds are now 3-3/4 to 1. Unless you increase the bet each time, the odds halve for each subsequent bet; by the fifth repeated same-amount bet, the amount won will only just barely equal the total spent for all previous bets (netting a $10 win), and beyond that point, it's an effort to reduce losses. There's no chance beyond the 5th repeat bet to show a positive net value for the betting system in and of itself, notwithstanding the notion of covering other monies.

Has anyone ever seen the All, Tall, Small bet on a crapless table?

I think that would be awesome.

I'm no statistician, but I think that if they had the ATS on a crapless table it would skew the odds too much against the house. I know I'd never go back to the regular game.

ATS doesn't have anything to do with the pass line bet. The odds are the exact same whether it's play on a regular table, crapless table, or added to your home game of monopoly.

ATS doesn't have anything to do with the pass line bet. The odds are the exact same whether it's play on a regular table, crapless table, or added to your home game of monopoly.

I dunno... the biggest 'obstacles' that contribute to the long odds on the ATS bets is the slim ratio of 2's, 3's, and 11's and 12's that are projected to occur every 36 throws.

If there IS such a phenomenon as "DI", and if 6's or x6's sets thrown by DIs result in a higher variance of craps and naturals, I think the combination of allowed bets--ATS and placed 2,3, 11, and 12's would create too skewed an opportunity. I recall and old adage (or, at least a belief) that convention says the PL that pays off the 11 is better for the player; that a crapless table that doesn't has more of an edge against the player. I think to take the "penalty" of losing to the 2 and 3 on the Come-Out and include a positive feature for the 12 (as an ATS trade-off) would change the overall house advantage percentages.

If there's a crapless table out there that allows ATS bets, I'd take it as proof that you're right.. that that casino believes that offering an ATS bet on a crapless table can't hurt them.

Wow dork, that is so wrong in so many ways. Without getting into it regarding whether games are designed with the fear of DI in mind, lets just keep it simple. All bets are negative expected value (-EV), the ATS is a -EV bet. Adding two -EV bets together (i.e. the PL and the ATS) produces a larger -EV bet. NOT because expected odds change, but because adding two negatives = a larger negative.

The ability to complete any part of the All-Tall-Small (ATS) has absolutely no correlation with any other PL, Place or Buy bet on the table.

But if you need to "see" a crapless table with the ATS in order to believe it is not about changing odds... well, you can ignore this post I guess.

Hello to all:

Maddog: I agree with you, offering a ATS bet on a crapless table does NOT change the odds in any way, I can think of.

Dork: Are you of the belief that a DC bet traveling to the 8 is a better bet than a DC bet traveling to a 10? SIMPLY NOT TRUE< SAME ODDs.. WHen I have a DC traveling to an 8 or a 6 , the dealer often asks me whether I want to travel.. Of course I do, same odds as a 4/10.

Dork: all of this "hedging", is as usual , a matter of personal preferences and goals. In the case of a $1,050 win potential, with the 4 getting hit, I would perhaps go light and lay the 4 for $400. I am at least guaranteed a good enough win to "feel something good inside"..

As far as hopping the red, again that is all about personal strategy goals. When hopping the red, I am more at ease, ESPECIALLY when I am the shooter. Perhaps that helps my shot last longer. Did I lose $30 hopping the red 6 times in a row? No, Absolutely NOT. I retained larger place bets and collected, and then got reimbursed for the 7.. Dork you might study up on hedging a bit more, it can have many intrinsic benefits and hidden benefits also.

take care
marc

I see ya'lls logic on the ATS/Crapless game now. Took me some real consideration...damn near strangled my mind.

Marc, when I read your original hop story I took an inference to mean you were just harvesting payoffs because you didn't say you were pressing. THAT makes sense; obviously, the press could easily cover the hop. Lay $400 makes sense to me too, where $600 didn't because that amount just seems to be too close to the payoff to be worth the risk to me.

Thanks for the details, both ya'll.

ps. No, I never turn down a DC on the 6 or 8--I've been asked if I wan the action, too. I know the odds are in my favor then.

pradice wrote:Are you of the belief that a DC bet traveling to the 8 is a better bet than a DC bet traveling to a 10? SIMPLY NOT TRUE

Correct, this is not true, as the 10 is the better bet at this time.

pradice wrote:< SAME ODDs..

Incorrect. An established DC bet on the 4/10 has a 2/3 chance of winning whereas on the 6/8 it has a 6/11 chance of winning (and on the 5/9 it is 3/5 chance.) Both are in the bettor's favor at this point, but they do not have the same odds of winning.

pradice wrote:WHen I have a DC traveling to an 8 or a 6 , the dealer often asks me whether I want to travel.. Of course I do, same odds as a 4/10.

The dealers ask because on a 6 or 8 you have just over 50% chance of winning and many players believe they are going to lose, and so opt to not take action.

Oh! I misunderstood what he was asking.. yes, the DC 4/10 are the better bets... best of the Don'ts all the time; it's just that I'd rather lay the odds on the 5,6,8 and 9 because I can psychologically accept to lose those easier than the notion of having to recoup the losses of a 4 or 10 with a combination of "two more 4's or 10's".

Though I do sometimes lay the 4/10 if it's the point and I'm continuing to bet the Don't... hate to miss a payoff on the 7; screwy thinking, but I feel it's almost a hedge against the DC and an immediate 7. Unless I'm 'WAY ahead, I'll usually take down the lay odds on the 4/10 if the 2nd DC survives, and lay odds on the inside numbers as I continue to bet the DC.

Wudged: I should have made myself clearer..... The odds are all true odds on a traveling dc bet., a lay bet on a 10 is paid accordingly to the player. In other words a dc traveling to a 10 vs. a 6, over the long haul pays the same true odds that are calculated accordingly for both..

Wudged we both agree, we are just explaining it differently..If 10,000 times you have a dc travel to a 10, and 10,000 times you have a dc travel to a 6,each with the same amount bet, theoretically you would win the same amount on each number as the universe corrects its' math.
If a dc travels to any number, they are all paying out true odds, so they are all paid accordingly to the player. No dc bet is better than the other.