Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

We use to play this bet as it seemed people were hitting it with a large reward for a little bet and by my calculations it was 80 to 1 on the ALL That seemed pretty good to me so we started playing it and hit a few Here in Biloxi we still have several casinos paying 35-175-35 As time wore on I started seeing more and more diminished returns plus noticing how much it slowed the game to a crawl particularly in those places that had to take all the bets down if someone threw a seven after making their point It was terrible After reading Heavy's post on the true House advantage I felt really pretty stupid particularly as much as we play so that play stopped I tracked it several weeks after that on what we would have won or lost on the bet had we played it and it was never better than a weekly $1100 loss !!! That's a lot we had to overcome That's a lot like having a good looking woman come on to you only to later find out she's a man !!! It looks good while it's hitting but that's really a mirage

If you bet the ATS, you need to hit the All Tall or All Small often enough to offset that HA. It's not worth it if you only occasionally hit it. That HA is a big chunk of the BR over time especially considering the come out seven exposure.

I am tending to agree with BD on the disavantage of betting the ATS.

In June at Heavys Las Vegas Fathers Day weekend, there were 7 of us in attendance. Over a 4 day playing weekend, it seemed like the majority of the tables had gone to either the ATS or the Repeater bet. The firebet was only available a handful of times. 22Inside did hit the ATS, and I had $1-3-1 placed for a total of $510 payoff. " But", theres that big but again, we all played an average of 6-8 hours of table time scattered thoughout the day.

Guessing that we all had an average of 3 times around the table per session and usually 2-4 sessions a day, that might equal $140-180 a day. Over 4 days we are looking at quite possibly $600-800. Now some of us did hit payouts on the repeater bet that returned $30 or $40 on a $10 bet.

I personally always bet the max on myself ( $10 firebet, Repeater and ATS ) and sometimes had the 'feeling' ( always wrong) that one of us was 'due' for a good hand, based on the last time or two with the dice. I'm guessing that over 4 days playing I played $800-1000 gross on these bets, and after the 22 ATS payoff and a few other hits, probably dropped $550 easy.

I think we see all of us in practice session working on tosses, then few of us have decent hands and them expect that the max payout will occur at every session. If we do fail to bet the 'bonus bet' we are quite confident that since we mised it, it will be hit by one of us. Looking back over the last
few years of playing, the wins on these bets are getting fewer and fewer.

So BD has a point, Maybe we all should track a little better and see if we really are ahead and if its wotrhwile to make the bet. I personally think I will start passing on them and just play smarter.

BUT, then again..................


Lkwd

Setting aside the pros and cons of the A-T-S for a second, let me ask you all a question about the practicalities. I'm thinking I made a mistake last weekend. I was in Vegas for a funeral and had only a little time to gamble. I was on the west side so I went up to Red Rock. A pretty low key place but one of my favorites because the minimums are often low and they offer 10X odds. The food there is also pretty good. Anyway, I was playing the A-T-S and had $2 on the Tall and Small and $1 on the All. The odds, I think, were 31-to-1 on the Small and Tall and 171-to-1 on the All. The All might have been 151-to-1. It was just me and one other guy on Monday morning and he and i thought and played alike (not afraid to go dark on a cold table, e.g.). He had hit the Tall (paying me $60) and had all the small numbers but the 2. Very difficult to hit, right? Had he hit it, I would have been paid over $200. While I know enough that I should consider laying a box number if it's the only one left and I stand to lose a decent sum if the 7 shows, because he was trying for snake eyes, I didn't think about a way to hedge against the 7 versus the 2. Maybe it doesn't matter much since I only had $3 riding on this, but what if I had a $5 All bet? Looking to win $750+ if he rolls aces instead of the 7? After I got home I realized I could have bet Any Seven for maybe $5 for a few rolls as a hedge. But I am so ingrained against that bet, it never entered my mind.

My question is, would any of you have started betting maybe a $5 any seven as a hedge? Even if he rolls 5-6 numbers before the 2, I've only spent $25-30 to protect my potential $210 or whatever. As it turned out, he sevened out right after getting down to the 2 being the only number left, and I only got the $30 for the Tall.

When you are thinking of betting any sever for $5 have you ever considered betting a hopping 6-1, 5-2, and 4-3 instead. Believe that is a better bet than any seven.

Noah

Noah is right. It is better to use a -13.89% hedge than a -16.67% hedge to protect an investment with. -20+% bet.

would any of you have started betting maybe a $5 any seven as a hedge? Even if he rolls 5-6 numbers before the 2, I've only spent $25-30 to protect my potential $210 or whatever.

From what i have learned from most of the more experienced players on this forum most believe hedging is usually not the best play. If i understand your question it seems like you are risking 5 to protect 3 (your wager on the small and all). Even if the seven came the first roll it only pays 20, not really much consolation for not hitting the 200+. If it went 5or6 rolls you wouldnt even get back what you spent on the any seven.

I don't bet the ATS. So I use the all seven set on the come out. For some reason when it hits my friends are mad at me. Lol!

Irukanji, you can check when you get to Harrington, they have dropped that bet to 30 130 30, if thats true, that bet is not even worth considering. I cannot say for sure......but I did hear about it from someone.

I hadn't thought about the hopping 7. Also helpful to hear the other side view. Thanks.

Irukanji wrote: ↑Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:20 pm I don't bet the ATS. So I use the all seven set on the come out. For some reason when it hits my friends are mad at me. Lol!

I'm much more successful at hitting a 7 on a come out roll than I am at hitting all the numbers. I feel bad or thosetossing money on the ATS, but I'm here to make money for me, not them!

eastcoast wrote: ↑Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:24 pm Irukanji, you can check when you get to Harrington, they have dropped that bet to 30 130 30, if thats true, that bet is not even worth considering. I cannot say for sure......but I did hear about it from someone.

I was there Saturday morning. It was 30/150/30. Budgeted $25 for it. 2-1-2 each time. When i went through the $25, stopped betting it. Of course on my last roll I made the Tall and was only missing Aces on the Small for Everything.

My latest thinking on the ATS has changed considerably. Six months to a year ago it was very uncommon for me to have a three day or longer trip when I didn’t hit the ATS at least once. During the last few months I have noticed that the number of times I have hit the ATS has gone down greatly. However, I have also noticed that my basic shot has been improving consistently. After some thought and analysis I think I’ve found the reason.

I have always used a set to try to bring out the most inside numbers. I know my on axis percent has increased both at home practice and also in the casinos recently. I must be getting senile because it finally dawned on me last week in Vegas what has been going on. After a hand that I thought was pretty good a dealer asked me if I knew I had just set and made the 8 six times and had over 40 rolls? Actually, I didn’t know how many but I knew I also made the 5,6 and 9 once and went out on the 6. I realized that as my shot improved I was tossing less numbers that were needed to make the ATS and instead tossing many more of the inside that I wanted anyway. I should have realized before the reason I was making so many ATS was because I was not as consistent as I am now. I was actually all over the place tossing numbers but was still able to toss some longer hands.

From that point on I almost stopped playing the ATS completely the rest of the trip. I did make part of it a few times but it didn’t even bother me not being on it. I was happy for those that were but I just tried to stay focused on my shot, trusting it and pounding the inside. It’s so much easier to not think about missing numbers and a heck of a lot more fun.

Great observation Coaster! Repeaters are really where us DI' s make our money. I think that $25 more played on a repearing number each hand out weighs actual earnings on any of the bonus bets I could play. Bonus bets can be fun occasionally when I am in the mood but they are not profitable overall so I rarely play them.

I am still of the mind that random shooters are more likely to hit bonus bets than DI's if the randy catches a long hand because they seem to spray more numbers around rather than repeating. That may be bias on my part as variance must dictate that some randies do repeat numbers often in a long hand.

I rarely use bonus bets. But today I managed to make the ats pay while I was betting on it.

Fun to see everybody scream for the 175:1 win

I regularly hit either the small or tall meaning 1 out of every 5 times I play it. Onl playit on myself or someone I know who is a DI. Yesterday hit the all at a casino that tries to rattle me after I hit the small.

1 out of 5 times over how many hands? That's an incredible advantage though we would also need to know how many come out 7s you are re-setting on and also whether you are on the old pay table or the new shitty pay table?

Hitting some portion of it 1 out of 5 times wold have to put this in positive EV value for you, which would be quite the monumental accomplishment.

I do hit small or tall somehow often, which is why I started betting it on myself. I had a great run on my last play. Wish I wasn’t so far away and could play more often.

The DOWNSIDE of the ATS is that when EVERYONE at the table bets the ATS, it can take 3 to 3 1/2 HOURS for the Dice to return to you as the 7 on the CO just creates a nightmare for the dealers to put ALL the ATS Bets back up!

Yesterday, I hit the SMALL on the Carnival Horizon for $90 as it & the TALL are 30 to 1. MAKE’M ALL is 150 to 1.
I like to bet the ATS 3 1 3 as both the SMALL or TALL HAVE to Hit before the ALL.